PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Newington Youth vs Institute Result & Analysis

Date: 12/11/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 1-4
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
54%
20%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Newington Youth are set to host Institute in a high-scoring affair, with the model projecting an average of 4.2 goals and a 24% chance of 6 or more. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Newington, a 8% probability that will shape the narrative. The model favours a home win, with 54% for Newington, 20% for a draw and 25% for Institute. Newington’s recent form is strong, riding a three-game winning streak and averaging 3.25 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against similar opposition. Institute, after two straight defeats, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded on the road. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (92.7%), Over 2.5 (78.7%) and BTTS Yes (75.5%). These selections reflect the attacking potency on both sides and the likelihood that both teams will find the net. The preview underscores the offensive focus and the model’s confidence in a home victory.

Results analysis

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Newington Youth, failed to deliver. The final score was 1-4, an away win that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the home side a 54% probability of victory, but the result was a 25% away win. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, as did Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes, with probabilities of 92.7%, 78.7% and 75.5% respectively. Newington Youth were on a three-game winning run before this match, while Institute had just returned from two straight defeats. The outcome underscored the unpredictability of the Championship.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Institute win✓ Hit
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-533D01L14L52W12L12L10W34L13L21WH·INS23/08A·KNO27/08H·ANN03/09H·BAL17/09A·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10H·BAL28/10A·ANN05/11A·ARD08/11
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.922.003.202.801.001.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)2.252.253.252.501.252.00
vs Weaker (4)1.251.503.004.000.670.67
Clean sheet %8% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-805L30W20W01L02L20W12L21W02L81WA·H&W03/09A·DER17/09H·BAL23/09A·LOU01/10A·WAR08/10H·ARD15/10A·BAL22/10H·KNO29/10H·DUN05/11H·KNO08/11
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.641.502.291.001.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.381.121.251.001.501.25
vs Weaker (6)2.002.003.671.000.333.00
Clean sheet %21% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%2%05%114%219%319%416%524%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.7%
Under 1.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.7%
Under 2.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.5%
No
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.0%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
3-2
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
2-0
4.7%
4-1
4.1%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Institute goals →
01234
02.2%1.9%2.2%1.2%0.5%
13.2%7.1%5.5%3.1%1.3%
24.7%8.0%6.8%3.8%1.6%
33.9%6.6%5.6%3.2%1.4%
42.4%4.1%3.5%2.0%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Institute goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Newington Youth is 0.05 points better than Institute in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Newington Youth is 0.29 goals better than Institute in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Newington Youth is 0.32 goals worse than Institute in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D11D21W11D10W10W32W03L10WH·INS23/08A·KNO27/08H·ANN03/09H·BAL17/09A·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10H·BAL28/10A·ANN05/11A·ARD08/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.251.082.001.600.710.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.251.251.751.500.751.00
vs Weaker (4)1.250.753.002.000.670.33
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D10W01L00D10W00D00D01L41WA·H&W03/09A·DER17/09H·BAL23/09A·LOU01/10A·WAR08/10H·ARD15/10A·BAL22/10H·KNO29/10H·DUN05/11H·KNO08/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.501.000.290.430.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.380.750.250.750.50
vs Weaker (6)0.670.671.330.330.001.00
Clean sheet %64% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L03L31W01L02L00D02L10W11DH·INS23/08A·KNO27/08H·ANN03/09H·BAL17/09A·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10H·BAL28/10A·ANN05/11A·ARD08/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.921.201.200.290.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.001.001.501.000.501.00
vs Weaker (4)0.000.750.002.000.000.33
Clean sheet %42% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L30W10W00D02L10W12L21W01L40WA·H&W03/09A·DER17/09H·BAL23/09A·LOU01/10A·WAR08/10H·ARD15/10A·BAL22/10H·KNO29/10H·DUN05/11H·KNO08/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.001.290.710.571.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.620.750.500.750.750.75
vs Weaker (6)1.331.332.330.670.332.00
Clean sheet %36% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.578.7%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes75.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
NY wins
1
Draws
0
INS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Institute · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/22HNY Vs Institute3-3

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22AArds Vs NY1-2
05/11/22AAnnagh United Vs NY3-1
28/10/22HNY Vs Ballinamallard United3-4
08/10/22AH&W Welders Vs NY0-1
01/10/22ADundela Vs NY2-1
23/09/22ALoughgall Vs NY2-1
17/09/22HNY Vs Ballyclare Comrades5-2
03/09/22HNY Vs Annagh United1-4
27/08/22AKnockbreda Vs NY1-0
23/08/22HNY Vs Institute3-3

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22HINS Vs Knockbreda8-1
05/11/22HINS Vs Dundela0-2
29/10/22HINS Vs Knockbreda2-1
22/10/22ABallinamallard United Vs INS2-1
15/10/22HINS Vs Ards2-0
08/10/22AWarrenpoint Town Vs INS2-0
01/10/22ALoughgall Vs INS1-0
23/09/22HINS Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-0
17/09/22ADergview Vs INS0-3
03/09/22AH&W Welders Vs INS5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.17
HomeWDLWL1.40
AwayLLWLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%40%29%
AVG goals3.926.002.43
Over 1.5 %83%100%71%
Over 2.5 %75%100%57%
Over 3.5 %50%100%14%
Scored1.923.201.00
Conceded2.002.801.43
BTTS83%100%71%
Clean Sheet8%0%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.21
HomeWWWLW1.86
AwayLWLLL0.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%57%14%
AVG goals3.143.293.00
Over 1.5 %86%100%71%
Over 2.5 %50%43%57%
Over 3.5 %21%14%29%
Scored1.642.291.00
Conceded1.501.002.00
BTTS43%57%29%
Clean Sheet21%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches