The contest between Newington Youth and Loughgall is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7 % chance. Newington’s home form shows they average 3.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, while Loughgall, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. The probability spread is 41 % for a home victory, 29 % for a draw, and 31 % for an away win. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 74.8 % chance and Under 3.5 with a 73.3 % chance. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage and no other outcomes are assigned a win probability. This balanced outlook reflects recent form: Newington on a two-game winning run after a 4-0 win over Rathfriland, and Loughgall fresh from a win against Ards.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Newington Youth secured a 2-1 home win, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 41 % probability and the model’s call was correct. The suggested selections also performed well: Over 1.5 goals, at 74.8 %, hit, and Under 3.5 goals, at 73.3 %, hit. The final score of 2-1 matched the model’s most likely outcome, and the match’s total goals aligned with the expected 2.6, confirming the model’s overall assessment. The result reflects Newington Youth’s strong home form and Loughgall’s struggle away.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newington Youth win✓ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loughgall win✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newington Youth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.67
2.24
1.53
1.85
1.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.61
1.78
1.64
1.82
1.57
1.71
vs Weaker (12)
2.75
1.50
3.33
1.00
2.17
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.93
1.56
0.94
0.83
0.92
vs Stronger (20)
1.35
1.05
1.67
1.17
0.88
0.88
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.33
0.33
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.1%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
5.3%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Loughgall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
7.6%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.1%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.8%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Loughgall goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Newington Youth is 0.11 points better than Loughgall in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Newington Youth is 0.71 goals better than Loughgall in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Newington Youth is 0.63 goals worse than Loughgall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newington Youth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.18
0.71
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.72
0.82
0.82
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.83
1.83
0.50
0.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.56
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
0.40
0.58
0.42
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newington Youth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.06
0.82
1.46
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.06
0.82
1.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.61
0.33
0.42
vs Stronger (20)
0.80
0.65
1.08
0.75
0.38
0.50
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
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Limavady United
Annagh United
H&W Welders
Institute
Queen's University
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Ballinamallard United
Dundela
Armagh City