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Newington Youth vs Warrenpoint Town Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
47%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win✓ Hit
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W42W00D23L23L12L41W00D42W10WH·NEW19/04A·BAL26/04A·QUE09/08H·LOU16/08A·H&W23/08A·ANN30/08H·BAL05/09A·LIM13/09A·ARM16/09A·INS20/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.601.691.381.651.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.411.711.331.831.451.64
vs Weaker (13)2.001.462.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W21W31W01L02L35L01L20W11D01LA·LOU22/04H·ANN29/04H·DUN09/08A·LIM16/08A·QUE23/08H·ARM30/08A·INS06/09H·ARD13/09A·H&W16/09H·ANN20/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.201.931.131.531.27
vs Stronger (27)1.701.071.850.851.571.29
vs Similar (3)2.002.332.503.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
01234
08.2%6.5%4.2%1.5%0.4%
19.7%13%6.6%2.4%0.7%
28.5%9.4%5.2%1.9%0.5%
34.4%4.9%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.7%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Newington Youth is 0.50 points better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Newington Youth is 0.84 goals better than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.18).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Newington Youth is 0.24 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.39).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W30W00D11D02L01L20W00D22D00DH·NEW19/04A·BAL26/04A·QUE09/08H·LOU16/08A·H&W23/08A·ANN30/08H·BAL05/09A·LIM13/09A·ARM16/09A·INS20/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.620.620.651.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.760.500.830.550.73
vs Weaker (13)0.770.920.710.430.831.50
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D10W00D01L21W00D10W11D01LA·LOU22/04H·ANN29/04H·DUN09/08A·LIM16/08A·QUE23/08H·ARM30/08A·INS06/09H·ARD13/09A·H&W16/09H·ANN20/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.800.530.730.53
vs Stronger (27)0.780.520.770.460.790.57
vs Similar (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L00D12L21W11D21W00D20W10WH·NEW19/04A·BAL26/04A·QUE09/08H·LOU16/08A·H&W23/08A·ANN30/08H·BAL05/09A·LIM13/09A·ARM16/09A·INS20/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.771.080.771.000.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.940.831.000.910.91
vs Weaker (13)1.230.541.290.571.170.50
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W21W01L01L14L01L10W00D00DA·LOU22/04H·ANN29/04H·DUN09/08A·LIM16/08A·QUE23/08H·ARM30/08A·INS06/09H·ARD13/09A·H&W16/09H·ANN20/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.130.600.800.73
vs Stronger (27)0.930.561.080.380.790.71
vs Similar (3)1.331.671.502.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
NY wins
0
Draws
3
WT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Warrenpoint Town · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/23AWarrenpoint Town Vs NY2-0
11/01/23HNY Vs Warrenpoint Town1-4
03/12/22HNY Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25AInstitute Vs NY0-1
16/09/25AArmagh City Vs NY2-4
13/09/25ALimavady United Vs NY0-0
05/09/25HNY Vs Ballinamallard United4-1
30/08/25AAnnagh United Vs NY2-1
23/08/25AH&W Welders Vs NY3-2
16/08/25HNY Vs Loughgall2-3
09/08/25AQueen's University Vs NY0-0
26/04/25ABallyclare Comrades Vs NY2-4
19/04/25HNY Vs Newry City AFC3-2

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25HWT Vs Annagh United0-1
16/09/25AH&W Welders Vs WT1-1
13/09/25HWT Vs Ards2-0
06/09/25AInstitute Vs WT1-0
30/08/25HWT Vs Armagh City3-5
23/08/25AQueen's University Vs WT2-0
16/08/25ALimavady United Vs WT1-0
09/08/25HWT Vs Dundela3-1
29/04/23HWT Vs Annagh United2-1
22/04/23ALoughgall Vs WT1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.14
HomeWWWLW1.32
AwayLLDWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%25%
AVG goals3.383.143.57
Over 1.5 %80%82%79%
Over 2.5 %62%59%64%
Over 3.5 %52%41%61%
Scored1.461.501.43
Conceded1.921.642.14
BTTS62%55%68%
Clean Sheet22%27%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.70
HomeWWLWL2.00
AwayWLLLD1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%36%
AVG goals2.873.122.59
Over 1.5 %80%88%73%
Over 2.5 %48%58%36%
Over 3.5 %26%33%18%
Scored1.651.881.41
Conceded1.221.251.18
BTTS59%58%59%
Clean Sheet22%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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