PythiaFootballBETA
Newport City are the clear favourites, with a 53% chance of victory, 24% for a draw and 23% for an Afan Lido win. The model expects 3.1 goals in total, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Newport, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Afan Lido, on the road against a weaker side, averages 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. The model’s selection Over 1.5 goals carries an 83.1% probability. In summary, Newport City are tipped to win, the match should see about three goals, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, and the Over 1.5 goal pick is the standout suggestion.
Newport City’s win extends their recent run, adding a victory after two straight defeats, while Afan Lido, coming off a draw, failed to capitalize on their away form. The match finished 1-0, a home win that matched the model’s favourite prediction. The model had chosen a home win with a 53% probability, and this call proved correct. The model’s total-goals expectation of 3.1 was far from reality, as only one goal was scored. The suggested pick “Over 1.5” had an 83.1% probability but missed, as the single goal fell short of the threshold.
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.10 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 1.52 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (3) | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.63 | 1.53 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.67 | 1.52 | 1.82 | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Afan Lido goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.60 | 1.07 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.93 | 0.52 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.10 | 0.86 | 1.45 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/25 | H | 5-1 | |
| 09/08/24 | A | 1-1 |
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/03/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/01/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/01/25 | H | 5-1 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/03/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 07/03/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/01/25 | A | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 |  Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 |  Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 |  Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 |  Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 |  Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 |  Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 |  Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 |  Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 |  Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 |  Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 |  Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 |  Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 |  Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 |  Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 |  Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 |  Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 |  Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 |  Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 |  Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 |  Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 |  Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 |  Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |