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Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Result & Analysis

Date: 21/08/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 0-1
Newport City
Newport City
Vs
34%
32%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Newport City hosts Baglan Dragons in the Wales FAW Championship on August 21. The Dragons' recent win over Llantwit Major comes after a string of losses, but they have shown resilience away from home, scoring an average of 0.5 goals and conceding 1.25. In contrast, Newport City has been struggling at home, conceding 1.64 goals on average while scoring 1.64. Their recent win over Pontardawe Town suggests they might turn their fortunes around.

The model predicts a 34% chance of a home win, 32% for a draw, and 34% for an away win. The most likely match result is a home win, with an expected total of 2.2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability.

Newport City's home scoring and conceding stats are average, but their away form is weaker. Baglan Dragons' away scoring is low, but they have shown defensive solidity.

The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.6% probability. The suggested picks are Under 3.5 (81.6%), with no other selections provided. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 34%.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Newport City, failed to deliver as the Dragons claimed a 0-1 away win, extending their two-game winning streak. The model had tipped a home victory at 34 % probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the Dragons’ triumph. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8 %, Under 5.5 hit at 97.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.8 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.9 %. The Dragons’ win was a clear upset, with the model’s predictions largely confirmed except for the home-win call.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newport City winâś— Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied 60.2% · @ 1.50
Edge
-25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.56
Dafabet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.52
Drawâś— Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.04
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.12
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
4.05
Baglan Dragons winâś“ Hit
33.9%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.18
Edge
+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Dafabet
5.20

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Newport CityNewport City

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L04L23L10W04L05L41W12L40WH·BAG06/03A·TRE09/03A·YNY14/03H·TRE20/03A·CAR28/03A·AMM03/04H·TRE18/04A·LLA31/07H·CAR08/08A·PON15/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.771.401.731.471.80
vs Stronger (27)1.591.631.621.621.571.64
vs Similar (3)0.003.000.002.500.004.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-705L14L01L00D07L02L11D00D03L10WH·CAE14/03A·TRE17/03A·AMM20/03H·CWM24/03H·CAR28/03A·CAM03/04H·TRE18/04A·TRE31/07H·SWA09/08A·LLA15/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.730.792.070.561.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.771.771.002.300.581.33
vs Weaker (8)0.381.620.251.500.501.75
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.15-12.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
@ 4.22+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.2%
@ 1.61-18.9%
Under 2.5
61.8%
@ 2.15+18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
@ 2.48-18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
@ 1.44+18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.2%
@ 1.66-9.1%
No
53.8%
@ 2.06+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
William Hil
1.62
No
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%@ 7.30+9.0%
0-0
12.2%@ 12.80+9.0%
1-0
10.8%@ 7.40+5.2%
0-1 âś“
10.7%@ 14.60+7.8%
2-1
7.5%@ 7.40+1.8%
1-2
7.4%@ 13.80+4.4%
2-0
6.8%@ 7.40+1.1%
0-2
6.6%@ 27.20+5.1%
Newport City goals ↓
Baglan Dragons goals →
01234
012%11%6.6%2.4%0.7%
111%15%7.4%2.7%0.7%
26.8%7.5%4.1%1.5%0.4%
32.5%2.8%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.7%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newport City goals (down), columns = Baglan Dragons goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Swansea University
2.60
Pontypridd Town
2.60
Newtown AFC
2.60
Brickfield Rangers
2.50
Bala Town
2.40
Aberystwyth Town
2.40
Mold Alexandra
2.17
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Porthmadog
1.83
Treowen Stars
1.80
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Baglan Dragons
1.67
Ynyshir Albions
1.60
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.40
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.33
Llanuwchllyn
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Afan Lido
1.17
Caerau (Ely)
1.17
Cardiff Draconians
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Ruthin Town
0.67
Buckley Town
0.67
Denbigh Town
0.67
Pontardawe Town
0.60
llanelli AFC
0.33
Penrhyncoch
0.20
Llantwit Major
0.00
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Newport City is 0.47 points worse than Baglan Dragons in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Swansea University
3.60
Pontypridd Town
3.20
Aberystwyth Town
3.20
Brickfield Rangers
2.83
Newtown AFC
2.80
Treowen Stars
2.60
Carmarthen Town
2.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
2.17
Bala Town
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Guilsfield
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Afan Lido
1.83
Porthmadog
1.83
Denbigh Town
1.83
Rhyl
1.80
Newport City
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.40
Cardiff Draconians
1.25
Buckley Town
1.17
llanelli AFC
1.00
Llanuwchllyn
1.00
Pontardawe Town
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Penrhyncoch
0.60
Caerphilly Athletic
0.60
Llantwit Major
0.25
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Newport City is 0.97 goals better than Baglan Dragons in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Newtown AFC
0.20
Ynyshir Albions
0.60
Brickfield Rangers
0.67
Bala Town
0.80
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Swansea University
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Newport City
1.00
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.33
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Caersws
1.40
Porthmadog
1.50
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.60
Cardiff Draconians
1.75
Treowen Stars
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.83
Buckley Town
1.83
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Afan Lido
2.17
Ruthin Town
2.17
Carmarthen Town
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.33
Gresford Athletic
2.80
Caerau (Ely)
2.83
llanelli AFC
3.00
Llanuwchllyn
3.00
Penrhyncoch
3.20
Llantwit Major
3.50
Newport City is 0.17 goals worse than Baglan Dragons in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newport City or Drawâś— Miss
66.1%
Avg Implied 82.3% · @ 1.11
Edge
-16.2%
34%
32%
34%
covers Newport City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Newport City or Baglan Dragonsâś“ Hit
68.3%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.18
Edge
-9.5%
34%
32%
34%
covers Newport City + Baglan Dragons
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Draw or Baglan Dragonsâś“ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.30
Edge
+25.6%
34%
32%
34%
covers Draw + Baglan Dragons
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.30

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newport City over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.2%
@ 1.07-17.1%
Under
32.8%
@ 5.78+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Under
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
5.25
Newport City over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.6%
@ 1.55-28.9%
Under
69.4%
@ 2.28+28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathonbet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Newport City over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 2.65-24.3%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.40+24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
Under
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Newport City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 4.80-16.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.13+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Under
1xBet
1.13
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.50+5.2%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.40-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.36
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 3.32+2.5%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.27-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 7.45-2.2%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.02
Baglan Dragons over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Newport City, so a minus line means Newport City give that many goals of a start and Baglan Dragons receive them. At -1, Newport City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newport City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newport City)Actual: Baglan Dragons
Newport City -2
4.5%
@ 4.40-15.7%
Draw -2
10.0%
@ 4.65-9.2%
Baglan Dragons +2
85.5%
@ 1.47+24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Marathonbet
1.47
Handicap -1 (Newport City)Actual: Baglan Dragons
Newport City -1
14.5%
@ 2.38-22.9%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 3.53-5.2%
Baglan Dragons +1
65.5%
@ 2.37+28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Draw
Marathonbet
3.58
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Away
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.32
Handicap +1 (Newport City)Actual: Draw
Newport City +1
66.1%
Draw +1
19.7%
Baglan Dragons -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newport City)Actual: Newport City
Newport City +2
85.9%
Draw +2
9.8%
Baglan Dragons -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newport CityNewport City

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D02L11D00D02L03L31W02L20WH·BAG06/03A·TRE09/03A·YNY14/03H·TRE20/03A·CAR28/03A·AMM03/04H·TRE18/04A·LLA31/07H·CAR08/08A·PON15/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.670.800.670.73
vs Stronger (27)0.740.670.770.690.710.64
vs Similar (3)0.001.670.001.500.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D01L00D02L01L10W00D02L10WH·CAE14/03A·TRE17/03A·AMM20/03H·CWM24/03H·CAR28/03A·CAM03/04H·TRE18/04A·TRE31/07H·SWA09/08A·LLA15/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.640.790.380.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.590.640.800.900.420.42
vs Weaker (8)0.250.750.250.500.251.00
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.0%
@ 1.26-3.4%
Under 0.5
31.0%
@ 3.31+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.31-7.3%
Under 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.50+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Pinnacle
2.34
Superbet
2.30
Under
William Hil
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.8%
@ 5.12-8.1%
Under 2.5
90.2%
@ 1.11+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Under
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newport City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.3%
@ 1.55-3.2%
Under
43.7%
@ 2.27+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Newport City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 3.50-8.7%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.24+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.24
Newport City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 8.45-7.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.04+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.0%
@ 2.53-1.1%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.43+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
1xBet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
Under
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 8.45-3.9%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 11.00-7.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newport CityNewport City

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L02L12L10W02L02L10W10W20WH·BAG06/03A·TRE09/03A·YNY14/03H·TRE20/03A·CAR28/03A·AMM03/04H·TRE18/04A·LLA31/07H·CAR08/08A·PON15/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.000.730.930.801.07
vs Stronger (27)0.850.960.850.920.861.00
vs Similar (3)0.001.330.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L03L00D00D05L01L01L00D01L00DH·CAE14/03A·TRE17/03A·AMM20/03H·CWM24/03H·CAR28/03A·CAM03/04H·TRE18/04A·TRE31/07H·SWA09/08A·LLA15/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.171.070.141.290.190.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.181.140.201.400.170.92
vs Weaker (8)0.120.880.001.000.250.75
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newport City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.8%-------âś“ Hit
Under 6.599.2%-------âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.8%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+7.3%âś“ Hit
Under 5.597.4%1.05
1xBet
1.05
----+7.9%âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals97.4%-------âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals97.3%1.13
1xBet
1.13
----+16.4%âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals96.8%1.04
1xBet
1.04
----+7.8%âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals92.9%1.04
1xBet
1.04
----+3.9%âś“ Hit
Under 4.592.6%1.14
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
--+13.1%âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals90.2%1.11
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-+8.1%âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals90.0%1.04
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.02
---+2.2%âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap85.9%-------âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals82.5%1.24
1xBet
1.24
----+8.7%âś“ Hit
Under 3.581.6%1.44
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
-+18.4%âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (12)
€1m
NC (4)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (4)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (6)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
NC wins
2
Draws
1
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons · H/A from NC
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/26HNC Vs Baglan Dragons1-2
17/08/25ABaglan Dragons Vs NC3-3
25/03/25HNC Vs Baglan Dragons1-0
09/11/24ABaglan Dragons Vs NC2-2

Newport CityNewport City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26APontardawe Town Vs NC0-4
08/08/26HNC Vs Carmarthen Town1-2
31/07/26Allanelli AFC Vs NC1-4
18/04/26HNC Vs Trefelin0-5
03/04/26AAmmanford AFC Vs NC4-0
28/03/26ACardiff Draconians Vs NC0-1
20/03/26HNC Vs Treowen Stars2-3
14/03/26AYnyshir Albions Vs NC4-0
09/03/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs NC1-0
06/03/26HNC Vs Baglan Dragons1-2

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26ALlantwit Major Vs BD0-1
09/08/26HBD Vs Swansea University0-3
31/07/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs BD0-0
18/04/26HBD Vs Trethomas Bluebirds1-1
03/04/26ACambrian & Clydach Vs BD2-0
28/03/26HBD Vs Carmarthen Town0-7
24/03/26HBD Vs Cwmbran Celtic0-0
20/03/26AAmmanford AFC Vs BD1-0
17/03/26ATreowen Stars Vs BD4-1
14/03/26HBD Vs Caerau (Ely)0-5

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Newport City
Newport City
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.62
HomeDLLLL1.58
AwayLWLWW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%42%50%
AVG goals2.983.002.96
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %56%65%46%
Over 3.5 %34%31%38%
Scored1.621.651.58
Conceded1.361.351.38
BTTS54%69%38%
Clean Sheet30%23%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.00
HomeLDLDL1.17
AwayLLLDW0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%25%19%
AVG goals2.302.921.73
Over 1.5 %66%79%54%
Over 2.5 %38%50%27%
Over 3.5 %16%25%8%
Scored0.901.290.54
Conceded1.401.621.19
BTTS42%54%31%
Clean Sheet28%21%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers615
83%
2.5
174+13
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2Swansea UniversitySwansea University513
80%
2.6
185+13
4.6
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.0
-
3Newtown AFCNewtown AFC513
80%
2.6
141+13
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.2
-
4Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
5Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra613
67%
2.2
126+6
3.0
67%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town512
80%
2.4
165+11
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
7Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC612
67%
2.0
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
8Bala TownBala Town512
80%
2.4
104+6
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
9PorthmadogPorthmadog611
50%
1.8
119+2
3.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
10CaerswsCaersws510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town610
50%
1.7
1514+1
4.8
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.52.3
-
12Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons610
50%
1.7
55+0
1.7
33%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
13Treowen StarsTreowen Stars59
60%
1.8
139+4
4.4
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.8
-
14GuilsfieldGuilsfield69
33%
1.5
129+3
3.5
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
15Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds68
33%
1.3
1211+1
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
16Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions58
40%
1.6
43+1
1.4
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.6
-
17RhylRhyl57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
18Afan LidoAfan Lido67
33%
1.2
1113-2
4.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.2
-
19Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)67
33%
1.2
1317-4
5.0
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.8
-
20Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic57
40%
1.4
37-4
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
21Newport CityNewport City56
40%
1.2
95+4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
22LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn56
40%
1.2
515-10
4.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
23Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur54
20%
0.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
24Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
25Denbigh TownDenbigh Town64
17%
0.7
1114-3
4.2
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
26Buckley TownBuckley Town64
17%
0.7
711-4
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
27Ruthin TownRuthin Town64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
28Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town53
20%
0.6
59-4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
29llanelli AFCllanelli AFC62
0%
0.3
618-12
4.0
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch51
0%
0.2
316-13
3.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
31Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major40
0%
0.0
114-13
3.8
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.5
-
32Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic50
0%
0.0
014-14
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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