Newport City, coming off a win, face a tough challenge against Carmarthen Town, who are also on a high after beating Caerau (Ely) 4-3. The model's pick is an away win, which is the most likely result, with a 48% probability. This selection is the biggest value, as it significantly disagrees with the market, which only gives Newport City a 30% chance of winning.
The expected total goals is 3.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 9.1% probability.
Newport City's home form is mediocre, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 1.56 per game against similar opponents. Carmarthen Town, on the other hand, have been scoring an average of 1.78 goals and conceding 2.22 away from home against similar opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 89.4% probability, and an edge of 12%. It also suggests Over 2.5 goals, with a 71.9% probability, and an edge of 15%. Additionally, BTTS Yes is a selection, with a 71.4% probability, and an edge of 11%. The home win percentage is 30%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 48%.
Newport City's win extends their recent run of inconsistent form, having come off a defeat. However, Carmarthen Town's away form is equally unpredictable, having won two of their last five matches. The final score was 1-2, resulting in an away win, which was the actual outcome. The model correctly predicted the favoured result, with Carmarthen Town being the favourite, having a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's selection, an away win, proved correct. The model's other selections largely came in, with Over 1.5 hitting at 89.4%, Over 2.5 hitting at 71.9%, and BTTS Yes hitting at 71.4%.
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.77 | 1.47 | 1.67 | 1.27 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 1.60 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.58 | 1.38 | 1.85 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.47 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 2.31 | 2.08 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.18 | 1.65 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 3.14 | 2.29 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.92 | 1.23 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Carmarthen Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.97 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.53 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 2.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.38 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 89.4% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | +11.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.62 | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 1.62 | +15.3% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 71.4% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 1.50 | +11.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/09/24 | A | 1-0 |
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-7 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |