Newport City’s recent form has dipped, losing their last match 0-1 to Baglan Dragons, while Swansea University arrives on a five-game winning streak, having beaten Caerau (Ely) 5-1. The model therefore names an away win as the most likely outcome, assigning Swansea a 68 % chance of triumph, Newport a 13 % chance of victory, and a 19 % probability of a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.5, with the single most probable scoreline 1-2 for Swansea at 9.5 %. Newport’s home performance against stronger opponents averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.58 conceded, whereas Swansea’s away record against weaker sides sees them netting 1.0 and conceding 2.0. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals (99 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98 %), Under 7.5 (97.4 %), Away +2 handicap (95.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.4 %), Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.3 %), and Under 6.5 (93.7 %).
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.77 | 1.24 | 1.65 | 1.46 | 1.92 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.77 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.54 | 1.71 | 1.54 | 1.92 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Swansea University goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.3% | 7.6% | 10% | 8.1% | 4.8% |
| 1 | 2.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| 2 | 1.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.30 | 0.81 | 1.31 | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.87 | 1.26 | 0.85 | 1.23 | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 95.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 94.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 92.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 87.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 87.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 80.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 78.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 2H goals | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 |
Swansea University| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-6 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/11/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |