The clash between Newport City and Trethomas Bluebirds feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 31% and 40%, respectively, while a draw is 28%. The average goal output is 2.6, with the most probable total of two goals. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance.
Newport City, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Trethomas Bluebirds, on the road to a weaker opponent, average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. The match is a tight affair, and the model’s pick remains the away win.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%) and Under 5.5 (94.8%). Each selection carries its own probability, with no other outcomes linked to the match result.
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.77 | 1.24 | 1.65 | 1.46 | 1.92 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 2.13 | 2.31 | 2.23 | 1.00 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.10 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Trethomas Bluebirds goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 14% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 0.47 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 95.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 94.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 89.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 87.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 87.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 84.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 82.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 10/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/01/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/11/24 | A | 2-1 |
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 5-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |