Newry City AFC are poised for a high-scoring outing, with the model projecting an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% probability. The home side’s recent form - winning their last match 3-1 - feeds confidence, and their home statistics show an average of 1.25 goals scored and conceded against weaker opposition. Armagh City, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.6 goals scored and 3.27 conceded, suggesting a defensive struggle. The model’s pick is a home win, with a 57% chance, a draw at 23%, and an away win at 20%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.2% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2% with a 5% edge, Under 6.5 at 95.7% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.6% with a 6% edge, and Home +2 handicap at 92.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newry City AFC win
57.3%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.66
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Dafabet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.76
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.00
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Armagh City win
19.7%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.43
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.90
1xBet
4.47
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.20
Bet365
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newry City AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.93
1.00
1.67
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.79
0.62
1.62
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.86
1.67
2.33
0.50
3.25
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
1.44
1.25
1.25
1.20
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Armagh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
3.00
0.58
2.75
0.50
3.17
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
3.13
0.75
2.88
0.60
3.27
vs Similar (7)
0.14
2.57
0.25
2.50
0.00
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.15+3.3%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.65-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.4%
@ 1.50+0.6%
Under 2.5
38.6%
@ 2.33-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Under
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.1%
@ 2.21-2.3%
Under 3.5
60.9%
@ 1.56+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
@ 1.52-0.1%
No
40.0%
@ 2.29+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
No
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 8.00+5.1%
2-1
9.9%@ 9.00+4.9%
2-0
8.7%@ 10.00+4.2%
1-0
7.6%@ 10.00+3.1%
3-1
6.7%@ 13.00+3.3%
3-0
5.9%@ 15.00+2.9%
2-2
5.6%@ 13.00+2.2%
1-2
5.5%@ 15.00+2.5%
Newry City AFC goals ↓
Armagh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
3.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.6%
11%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.9%
6.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.0%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newry City AFC goals (down), columns = Armagh City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Newry City AFC is 1.40 points better than Armagh City in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Newry City AFC is 0.80 goals better than Armagh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Newry City AFC is 0.40 goals worse than Armagh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newry City AFC or Draw
80.3%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.16
Edge
+1.3%
57%
23%
20%
covers Newry City AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Newry City AFC or Armagh City
76.9%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.2%
57%
23%
20%
covers Newry City AFC + Armagh City
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw or Armagh City
42.7%
Avg Implied 45.2% · @ 2.02
Edge
-2.5%
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + Armagh City
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
@ 1.09+2.1%
Under
13.0%
@ 6.10-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Under
1xBet
6.20
Bet365
6.00
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5
Over
60.4%
@ 1.55+0.8%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.29-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5
Over
33.4%
@ 2.61-2.1%
Under
66.6%
@ 1.43+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
Under
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Newry City AFC over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
@ 5.10-3.2%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.13+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Armagh City over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
@ 1.38+0.4%
Under
32.2%
@ 2.85-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.70
Armagh City over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
@ 2.64-3.4%
Under
68.7%
@ 1.41+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.61
Marathonbet
2.61
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Armagh City over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
@ 6.35-3.9%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.08+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Under
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Armagh City over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
@ 11.00-5.7%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Newry City AFC, so a minus line means Newry City AFC give that many goals of a start and Armagh City receive them. At -1, Newry City AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newry City AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC -2
17.5%
@ 4.75-1.1%
Draw -2
17.7%
@ 4.95-0.2%
Armagh City +2
64.8%
@ 1.39+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.75
Draw
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap -1 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC -1
35.2%
@ 2.59+1.6%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.78-1.0%
Armagh City +1
42.7%
@ 2.01-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.59
Draw
Marathonbet
3.78
Away
Marathonbet
2.01
Handicap +1 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC +1
80.3%
Draw +1
11.9%
Armagh City -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.5%
Armagh City -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newry City AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.73
0.93
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.38
1.25
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Armagh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
1.17
0.33
0.83
0.00
1.39
vs Stronger (23)
0.13
1.26
0.38
0.88
0.00
1.47
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.25-4.2%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 3.67+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.17-2.8%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.59+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 4.45-8.6%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.17+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Under
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.8%
@ 1.58-2.6%
Under
44.2%
@ 2.23+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.55
Under
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.15
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.2%
@ 3.60-6.3%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.23+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
@ 10.50-5.0%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Under
1xBet
1.01
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.1%
@ 2.25-4.0%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.57+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
@ 7.90-2.3%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.04+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Under
1xBet
1.04
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newry City AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.10
0.27
0.73
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.79
0.25
0.38
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (7)
0.29
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.89
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Armagh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.83
0.25
1.92
0.50
1.78
vs Stronger (23)
0.52
1.87
0.38
2.00
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (7)
0.00
1.71
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.15-3.5%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 5.05+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 1.70-9.5%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 2.02+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 3.20-11.7%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.31+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.6%
@ 1.37-8.9%
Under
41.4%
@ 2.85+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.85
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.0%
@ 2.70-12.0%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.39+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.70
Under
1xBet
1.39
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
@ 6.80-6.1%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.06+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Under
1xBet
1.06
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.8%
@ 1.93-4.2%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.78+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.78
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
@ 5.70-3.1%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.09+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Under
1xBet
1.09
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Under 6.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
Under 5.5
89.8%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+8.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
85.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+3.2%
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
+3.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.31
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+11.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.8%
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home or Draw
80.3%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+1.3%
Home +1 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.6%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
+3.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.39
1xBet
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-3.5%
Home or Away
76.9%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+1.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-4.2%
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Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →