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Newry City AFC vs Dundela Result & Analysis

Date: 14/03/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 1-1
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Vs
33%
26%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dundela
Dundela
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Newry City AFC are tipped to fall to Dundela, the model’s pick for an away win. The odds show a 42% chance for the visitors, 33% for the hosts and 26% for a draw, while the expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively encounter. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.9% chance, even though the model favours a total of two goals at 23%.

Newry, playing at home against a stronger side, averages just one goal scored and 1.62 conceded. Dundela, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages two goals scored and 2.14 conceded. The match is expected to see both teams find the net, reflected in the model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals at 82.6%.

The home win probability sits at 33%, the draw at 26% and the away win at 42%. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.6%.

Results analysis

A surprising 1-1 draw saw the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, fall short. The final score matched the expected total of three goals, yet the match settled on a single goal each. Newry City AFC, fresh from a win, had a 33% chance of triumph, while Dundela, after two defeats, had a 42% chance of victory. The model’s selection of an away win was incorrect. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.6% probability, hit, confirming the game’s goal-rich nature. The result left both sides level on the table, a reminder that form can be deceptive.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newry City AFC win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundela win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D13L21W04L01L11D14L20W11DA·BAL26/12H·ARM30/12A·BAL11/01H·BAN17/01A·ANN25/01H·NEW07/02A·INS15/02A·H&W22/02H·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.031.471.730.932.33
vs Stronger (16)0.941.881.001.620.882.12
vs Similar (8)1.622.882.752.750.503.00
vs Weaker (6)1.331.331.000.671.672.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W12L31W04L43W13L12L13L11D42WH·BAL21/12H·H&W27/12A·ARD31/12A·LIM18/01H·INS01/02A·BAL08/02H·H&W15/02H·INS22/02A·BAL28/02H·ARM08/03
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.671.871.801.731.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.731.272.001.571.501.00
vs Weaker (15)1.872.071.752.002.002.14
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Newry City AFC goals ↓
Dundela goals →
01234
05.6%6.4%6.2%3.4%1.4%
15.4%12%8.9%4.9%2.0%
24.7%7.8%6.4%3.6%1.5%
32.3%3.7%3.1%1.7%0.7%
40.8%1.4%1.1%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newry City AFC goals (down), columns = Dundela goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bangor
2.00
Annagh United
1.87
Limavady United
1.74
H&W Welders
1.74
Queen's University
1.50
Ards
1.37
Dundela
1.37
Institute
1.34
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Armagh City
1.11
Newington Youth
1.11
Ballyclare Comrades
1.07
Newry City AFC
0.82
Newry City AFC is 0.55 points worse than Dundela in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.16
H&W Welders
2.08
Annagh United
1.84
Limavady United
1.76
Armagh City
1.63
Institute
1.63
Dundela
1.53
Queen's University
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.45
Ards
1.45
Ballyclare Comrades
1.35
Newington Youth
1.34
Newry City AFC
1.21
Newry City AFC is 0.32 goals worse than Dundela in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Annagh United
0.97
Queen's University
1.00
Limavady United
1.16
Bangor
1.21
H&W Welders
1.39
Ards
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.63
Dundela
1.63
Institute
1.66
Newington Youth
1.95
Armagh City
2.05
Newry City AFC
2.05
Ballyclare Comrades
2.20
Newry City AFC is 0.42 goals worse than Dundela in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D11D20W01L01L00D10W00D01LA·BAL26/12H·ARM30/12A·BAL11/01H·BAN17/01A·ANN25/01H·NEW07/02A·INS15/02A·H&W22/02H·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.930.730.930.530.93
vs Stronger (16)0.310.880.121.000.500.75
vs Similar (8)1.001.121.751.250.251.00
vs Weaker (6)1.000.831.000.331.001.33
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D20W02L13L11D01L12L10W32WH·BAL21/12H·H&W27/12A·ARD31/12A·LIM18/01H·INS01/02A·BAL08/02H·H&W15/02H·INS22/02A·BAL28/02H·ARM08/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.770.801.001.200.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.871.000.861.430.880.62
vs Weaker (15)1.130.530.750.621.570.43
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D02L01L03L00D11D04L20W10WA·BAL26/12H·ARM30/12A·BAL11/01H·BAN17/01A·ANN25/01H·NEW07/02A·INS15/02A·H&W22/02H·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.100.730.800.401.40
vs Stronger (16)0.621.000.880.620.381.38
vs Similar (8)0.621.751.001.500.252.00
vs Weaker (6)0.330.500.000.330.670.67
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundelaDundela

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L11D02L30W02L11D01L01L10WH·BAL21/12H·H&W27/12A·ARD31/12A·LIM18/01H·INS01/02A·BAL08/02H·H&W15/02H·INS22/02A·BAL28/02H·ARM08/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.901.070.800.531.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.271.140.140.620.38
vs Weaker (15)0.731.531.001.380.431.71
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
NCA wins
0
Draws
2
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newry City AFC vs Dundela · H/A from NCA
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/24HNCA Vs Dundela0-2
10/08/24ADundela Vs NCA1-0

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25ABallinamallard United Vs NCA1-1
04/03/25HNCA Vs Ards2-0
22/02/25AH&W Welders Vs NCA4-1
15/02/25AInstitute Vs NCA1-1
07/02/25HNCA Vs Newington Youth0-1
25/01/25AAnnagh United Vs NCA4-0
17/01/25HNCA Vs Bangor2-1
11/01/25ABallyclare Comrades Vs NCA3-1
30/12/24HNCA Vs Armagh City1-1
26/12/24ABallinamallard United Vs NCA2-1

DundelaDundela

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HDUN Vs Armagh City4-2
28/02/25ABallyclare Comrades Vs DUN1-1
22/02/25HDUN Vs Institute1-3
15/02/25HDUN Vs H&W Welders1-2
08/02/25ABallinamallard United Vs DUN3-1
01/02/25HDUN Vs Institute4-3
18/01/25ALimavady United Vs DUN4-0
31/12/24AArds Vs DUN1-3
27/12/24HDUN Vs H&W Welders1-2
21/12/24HDUN Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD0.64
HomeLDWLW0.84
AwayLLDLD0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%20%8%
AVG goals3.142.883.40
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored0.901.040.76
Conceded2.241.842.64
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Dundela
Dundela
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.54
HomeLWLLW1.50
AwayWWLLD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals3.503.773.21
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %68%69%67%
Over 3.5 %52%54%50%
Scored1.842.081.58
Conceded1.661.691.62
BTTS68%73%62%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BangorBangor3876
61%
2.0
8246+36
3.4
79%
71%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.2
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3871
58%
1.9
7037+33
2.8
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
53%
1.7
7953+26
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4Limavady UnitedLimavady United3866
47%
1.7
6744+23
2.9
84%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
5ArdsArds3852
37%
1.4
5557-2
2.9
68%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
6DundelaDundela3852
39%
1.4
5862-4
3.2
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7InstituteInstitute3851
34%
1.3
6263-1
3.3
84%
66%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3844
34%
1.2
5562-7
3.1
79%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades4043
30%
1.1
5488-34
3.5
95%
75%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10Armagh CityArmagh City3842
26%
1.1
6278-16
3.7
87%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
11Newington YouthNewington Youth3842
29%
1.1
5174-23
3.3
82%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3831
18%
0.8
4678-32
3.3
87%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
13QueenQueen's University23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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