Newry City AFC are tipped to fall to Dundela, the model’s pick for an away win. The odds show a 42% chance for the visitors, 33% for the hosts and 26% for a draw, while the expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively encounter. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.9% chance, even though the model favours a total of two goals at 23%.
Newry, playing at home against a stronger side, averages just one goal scored and 1.62 conceded. Dundela, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages two goals scored and 2.14 conceded. The match is expected to see both teams find the net, reflected in the model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals at 82.6%.
The home win probability sits at 33%, the draw at 26% and the away win at 42%. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.6%.
Results analysis
A surprising 1-1 draw saw the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, fall short. The final score matched the expected total of three goals, yet the match settled on a single goal each. Newry City AFC, fresh from a win, had a 33% chance of triumph, while Dundela, after two defeats, had a 42% chance of victory. The model’s selection of an away win was incorrect. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.6% probability, hit, confirming the game’s goal-rich nature. The result left both sides level on the table, a reminder that form can be deceptive.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newry City AFC win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundela win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newry City AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.03
1.47
1.73
0.93
2.33
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
1.88
1.00
1.62
0.88
2.12
vs Similar (8)
1.62
2.88
2.75
2.75
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.67
1.87
1.80
1.73
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.27
2.00
1.57
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.87
2.07
1.75
2.00
2.00
2.14
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Newry City AFC goals ↓
Dundela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.4%
6.2%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.4%
12%
8.9%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.7%
7.8%
6.4%
3.6%
1.5%
3
2.3%
3.7%
3.1%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newry City AFC goals (down), columns = Dundela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bangor
2.00
Annagh United
1.87
Limavady United
1.74
H&W Welders
1.74
Queen's University
1.50
Ards
1.37
Dundela
1.37
Institute
1.34
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Armagh City
1.11
Newington Youth
1.11
Ballyclare Comrades
1.07
Newry City AFC
0.82
Newry City AFC is 0.55 points worse than Dundela in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.16
H&W Welders
2.08
Annagh United
1.84
Limavady United
1.76
Armagh City
1.63
Institute
1.63
Dundela
1.53
Queen's University
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.45
Ards
1.45
Ballyclare Comrades
1.35
Newington Youth
1.34
Newry City AFC
1.21
Newry City AFC is 0.32 goals worse than Dundela in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Annagh United
0.97
Queen's University
1.00
Limavady United
1.16
Bangor
1.21
H&W Welders
1.39
Ards
1.50
Ballinamallard United
1.63
Dundela
1.63
Institute
1.66
Newington Youth
1.95
Armagh City
2.05
Newry City AFC
2.05
Ballyclare Comrades
2.20
Newry City AFC is 0.42 goals worse than Dundela in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newry City AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.88
0.12
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.12
1.75
1.25
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
0.80
1.00
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.00
0.86
1.43
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.53
0.75
0.62
1.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newry City AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.10
0.73
0.80
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
1.00
0.88
0.62
0.38
1.38
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.25
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
1.07
0.80
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.27
1.14
0.14
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
1.53
1.00
1.38
0.43
1.71
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →