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Newry City AFC vs Glenavon FC Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 1-4
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Vs
23%
26%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The match between Newry City AFC and Glenavon FC is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Glenavon FC's recent struggles likely to be a storyline coming into this game. Despite this, the model's pick is an Away win, which holds a 50% probability. Newry City AFC's home win percentage is 23%, with a draw percentage of 26% and an away win percentage of 50%.

The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.6%. Newry City AFC has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.23 goals and conceding 1.62 goals per game against stronger opponents. Glenavon FC, on the other hand, has been poor away from home, scoring 0 goals and conceding 1 goal per game against weaker opponents.

The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a probability of 77.3% and Under 3.5 with a probability of 70.2%.

Results analysis

Newry City AFC's 1-4 loss extends their recent form woes, with four consecutive defeats, including a 1-4 loss to Glenavon FC in their previous match. The away win was the actual result, with Glenavon FC defeating Newry City AFC by a three-goal margin, well clear of the expected total of 2.8 goals. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model's call was also correct, as it was the favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.3%, while Under 3.5 goals missed, with a probability of 70.2%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newry City AFC win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D11D13L30W22D14L23L03L10WH·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03H·DUN14/03A·LIM22/03H·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04A·BAL08/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.971.201.530.802.40
vs Stronger (17)0.882.000.901.800.862.29
vs Similar (6)1.002.672.001.500.503.25
vs Weaker (7)1.291.291.670.671.001.75
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D30W30W03L11D11D00D01L23L13LA·BAL24/02H·POR28/02A·CRU14/03H·LAR20/03H·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.831.251.621.142.07
vs Stronger (11)1.182.551.292.001.003.50
vs Similar (19)1.211.421.221.331.201.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
9.0%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
Newry City AFC goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
01234
07.5%9.5%9.0%5.0%2.1%
15.7%13%9.7%5.4%2.3%
23.7%6.2%5.2%2.9%1.2%
31.3%2.2%1.9%1.0%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newry City AFC goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Newry City AFC is 0.20 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Newry City AFC is 1.40 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Newry City AFC is 0.20 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D01L20W22D01L12L02L00DH·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03H·DUN14/03A·LIM22/03H·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04A·BAL08/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.671.000.270.87
vs Stronger (17)0.291.120.301.300.290.86
vs Similar (6)0.670.831.500.500.251.00
vs Weaker (7)0.710.571.330.330.250.75
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W00D00D01L01L00D00D10W01LA·BAL24/02H·POR28/02A·CRU14/03H·LAR20/03H·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.560.560.430.93
vs Stronger (11)0.550.820.430.570.751.25
vs Similar (19)0.470.680.670.560.300.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W00D12L10W00D13L11D01L10WH·ARD04/03A·BAL08/03H·DUN14/03A·LIM22/03H·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04A·BAL08/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.030.530.530.531.53
vs Stronger (17)0.590.880.600.500.571.43
vs Similar (6)0.331.830.501.000.252.25
vs Weaker (7)0.570.710.330.330.751.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W30W03L10W10W00D01L13L12LA·BAL24/02H·POR28/02A·CRU14/03H·LAR20/03H·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.100.691.060.711.14
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.861.430.252.25
vs Similar (19)0.740.740.560.780.900.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
NCA wins
0
Draws
5
GF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newry City AFC vs Glenavon FC · H/A from NCA
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/24AGlenavon FC Vs NCA3-2
26/12/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-4
24/11/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-3
19/08/23AGlenavon FC Vs NCA1-3
15/04/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-1
04/03/23HNCA Vs Glenavon FC0-1
25/02/23AGlenavon FC Vs NCA0-2
30/08/22AGlenavon FC Vs NCA1-5

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26ABallinamallard United Vs NCA0-1
26/04/25HNCA Vs Institute0-3
19/04/25ANewington Youth Vs NCA3-2
12/04/25AArmagh City Vs NCA4-1
05/04/25HNCA Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-2
01/04/25HNCA Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
22/03/25ALimavady United Vs NCA3-1
14/03/25HNCA Vs Dundela1-1
08/03/25ABallinamallard United Vs NCA1-1
04/03/25HNCA Vs Ards2-0

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HGF Vs Ards1-3
25/04/26HGF Vs Carrick Rangers2-3
18/04/26HGF Vs Crusaders FC0-1
11/04/26ABangor Vs GF0-0
07/04/26ABallymena United Vs GF1-1
04/04/26HGF Vs Portadown1-1
20/03/26HGF Vs Larne0-3
14/03/26ACrusaders FC Vs GF0-3
28/02/26HGF Vs Portadown3-0
24/02/26ABallymena United Vs GF2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW0.76
HomeWDWDL1.00
AwayDLLLW0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%25%12%
AVG goals3.303.083.50
Over 1.5 %82%88%77%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored1.081.250.92
Conceded2.221.832.58
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL0.78
HomeLDLLL0.88
AwayWDWDD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals2.682.442.92
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %26%16%36%
Scored1.000.921.08
Conceded1.681.521.84
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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