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Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Vs
21%
22%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Newry City AFC, coming off a 0-3 loss, will face H&W Welders who are on a two-game winning streak. The model favours an away win, with a 57% chance for H&W, 22% for a draw and 21% for Newry. The expected total is 3.5 goals, centring on a 3-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.6% probability. Newry’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded against similar opposition, while H&W’s away form averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (93.8%), Away +2 handicap (91.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.7%), Over 1.5 (86.9%), Under 5.5 (86.3%) and Home under 2.5 goals (86.2%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newry City AFC win
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win
57.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W22D14L23L03L10W14L21W03L31WH·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04A·BAL08/08H·GLE11/08A·RAT15/08H·WAR21/08A·INS29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.931.001.671.072.20
vs Stronger (14)0.931.790.621.621.332.00
vs Similar (7)1.002.861.672.330.503.25
vs Weaker (9)1.221.441.251.251.201.60
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L00D02L42W40W30W12L10W21W20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.202.561.192.071.21
vs Stronger (17)2.291.352.111.112.501.62
vs Similar (7)1.141.711.502.250.671.00
vs Weaker (6)3.830.175.330.002.330.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.2%
Under 2.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.5%
1-3
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.4%
Newry City AFC goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
01234
04.0%6.0%7.5%5.4%3.0%
13.1%9.6%9.6%6.9%3.8%
22.6%5.6%6.1%4.4%2.4%
31.1%2.4%2.6%1.9%1.0%
40.4%0.8%0.8%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newry City AFC goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Newry City AFC is 0.60 points worse than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Newry City AFC is 0.40 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Newry City AFC is 1.20 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 0.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newry City AFC or Draw
43.0%
Avg Implied -
21%
22%
57%
covers Newry City AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC or H&W Welders
77.9%
Avg Implied -
21%
22%
57%
covers Newry City AFC + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or H&W Welders
79.1%
Avg Implied -
21%
22%
57%
covers Draw + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
88.7%
Under
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Newry City AFC, so a minus line means Newry City AFC give that many goals of a start and H&W Welders receive them. At -1, Newry City AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newry City AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC -2
2.9%
Draw -2
6.0%
H&W Welders +2
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC -1
8.9%
Draw -1
12.1%
H&W Welders +1
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC +1
43.0%
Draw +1
21.2%
H&W Welders -1
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newry City AFC)
Newry City AFC +2
64.2%
Draw +2
17.3%
H&W Welders -2
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W22D01L12L02L00D11D20W01L10WH·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04A·BAL08/08H·GLE11/08A·RAT15/08H·WAR21/08A·INS29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.730.930.470.73
vs Stronger (14)0.431.000.381.250.500.67
vs Similar (7)0.710.861.330.670.251.00
vs Weaker (9)0.780.561.000.500.600.60
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L11D30W10W12L00D10W00DH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.310.621.070.79
vs Stronger (17)1.350.761.220.441.501.12
vs Similar (7)0.711.001.001.500.330.33
vs Weaker (6)1.330.172.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D13L11D01L10W03L01L02L21WH·BAL01/04H·BAL05/04A·ARM12/04A·NEW19/04H·INS26/04A·BAL08/08H·GLE11/08A·RAT15/08H·WAR21/08A·INS29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.100.270.730.601.47
vs Stronger (14)0.500.790.250.380.831.33
vs Similar (7)0.292.000.331.670.252.25
vs Weaker (9)0.440.890.250.750.601.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D01L31W10W20W00D10W11D20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.250.561.000.43
vs Stronger (17)0.940.590.890.671.000.50
vs Similar (7)0.430.710.500.750.330.67
vs Weaker (6)2.500.003.330.001.670.00
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.9%-------
Under 6.593.8%-------
Away +2 handicap91.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals88.7%-------
Over 1.586.9%-------
Under 5.586.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals86.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals82.3%-------
Draw or Away79.1%-------
Away +1 handicap79.1%-------
Home or Away77.9%-------
Under 4.573.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals72.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
NCA wins
1
Draws
2
HW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders · H/A from NCA
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/25AH&W Welders Vs NCA4-1
02/11/24HNCA Vs H&W Welders2-2
28/09/24AH&W Welders Vs NCA2-1

Newry City AFCNewry City AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AInstitute Vs NCA1-3
21/08/26HNCA Vs Warrenpoint Town0-3
15/08/26ARathfriland Vs NCA1-2
11/08/26HNCA Vs Glenavon FC1-4
08/08/26ABallinamallard United Vs NCA0-1
26/04/25HNCA Vs Institute0-3
19/04/25ANewington Youth Vs NCA3-2
12/04/25AArmagh City Vs NCA4-1
05/04/25HNCA Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-2
01/04/25HNCA Vs Ballinamallard United3-0

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HHW Vs Dundela2-0
22/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs HW1-2
15/08/26HHW Vs Armagh City1-0
11/08/26AQueen's University Vs HW2-1
08/08/26HHW Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
24/04/26HHW Vs Annagh United4-0
18/04/26ANewington Youth Vs HW2-4
11/04/26ALoughgall Vs HW2-0
03/04/26ALimavady United Vs HW0-0
28/03/26HHW Vs Queen's University2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW0.80
HomeWDLLL0.96
AwayLLWWW0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals3.343.203.48
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %64%56%72%
Over 3.5 %44%36%52%
Scored1.141.241.04
Conceded2.201.962.44
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.74
HomeLWWWW1.84
AwayDLWLW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%56%48%
AVG goals3.523.523.52
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %74%72%76%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored2.222.322.12
Conceded1.301.201.40
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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