Newtown AFC are on a high note, having won three of their last four games, including a convincing 5-0 victory over Penrhyncoch. This recent form, combined with an expected 3.2 goals in this match, suggests a high-scoring encounter.
The model predicts a Newtown AFC win, with a 54% chance of victory at home, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 23% chance of a Guilsfield win. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, which has a 10.7% probability.
Newtown AFC have been scoring an average of 2.55 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.45 goals. Guilsfield, on the other hand, have scored 1.0 goal on average away from home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.25 goals.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with an 84.4% probability. Other model selections include the Home win, with a 54% probability, and the Draw, with a 24% probability. Guilsfield's Away win has a 23% probability.
The draw between Newtown AFC and Guilsfield has extended Newtown's run of consecutive draws to three, coming off a draw against the same opponent last time out. In a major upset, the home side, Newtown AFC, failed to back up their pre-match favourite status, with the model's selection of a home win being incorrect. The model had given Newtown AFC a 54% chance of winning. Guilsfield's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.4% going into the match. The final score of 1-1 reflected the most likely outcome, with a probability of 10.7%, according to the model's predictions.
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.47 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.65 | 1.41 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.11 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 3.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 3.25 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.47 | 2.33 | 1.40 | 0.93 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.84 | 1.11 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 2.09 | 2.00 | 2.20 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Guilsfield goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 11% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.82 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.33 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.27 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.95 | 0.63 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 1.09 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.82 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 0.89 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Guilsfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.47 | 1.30 | 0.20 | 0.44 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.4% | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.11 | - | - | - | +6.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-1 |
Newtown AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
Guilsfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |