Newtown AFC, on a 2-game winning run, hosts Penrhyncoch in the Wales: FAW Championship. The home side has been scoring at a rate of 2.3 goals per game at home, conceding 1.6. Their recent form, including a 3-0 win over Gresford Athletic, suggests a strong attacking unit. Penrhyncoch, meanwhile, has averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded while playing away against similar opponents.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.5% probability. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 48% probability, making it the favourite to win. The away win percentage is 28%, and the draw percentage is 24%.
The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, which has an 85.9% probability of occurring, and also offers a 6% edge.
Newtown AFC's win extends their 3-game winning run, which now stands at 4 victories in their last 6 matches. The 5-0 scoreline was a comprehensive one, as the home team dominated from start to finish. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, having been given a 48% probability of occurring. The model's pick was the favourite, and it landed as expected. The Over 1.5 selection, also made by the model, hit, with a 85.9% probability of success. The model's call on the score was not among the most likely outcomes, but it still got the result right.
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.47 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 1.72 | 1.39 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.62 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 3.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 3.25 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.77 | 1.93 | 1.40 | 1.07 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.52 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.62 | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 11% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.64 | 0.96 | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.83 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.62 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.83 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.84 | 1.15 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85.9% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.09 | - | - | +5.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/25 | A | 1-2 |
Newtown AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-5 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |