Newtown AFC’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels optimism as they host Porthmadog, who are coming off a draw. The model favours a home win, with a 60% chance, a 20% draw probability and a 19% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.7 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Newtown, a 9.2% chance.
Newtown’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, while Porthmadog, on the road, averages 1.85 goals scored and 2.08 conceded. This suggests a moderately high-scoring affair.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Home +2 handicap (91.7%), Under 6.5 (91.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.8%), Over 1.5 (89.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.0%) and Under 5.5 (82.8%). Each is presented with its exact probability.
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 1.72 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.22 | 1.78 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 3.67 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 2.17 | 0.88 | 2.24 | 1.85 | 2.08 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.36 | 2.24 | 0.83 | 2.42 | 1.85 | 2.08 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Porthmadog goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.83 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.83 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.47 | 0.41 | 1.65 | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.72 | 1.44 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 1.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 90.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 82.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Newtown AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 |
Porthmadog| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/09/25 | H | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |