The model’s strongest edge lies in its prediction that Lechia Gdańsk will win away, a 45% chance that outpaces the market’s implied odds. The expected total of 4.1 goals signals a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 7.7% probability. Nieciecza, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, while Lechia, on the road, averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s home win percentage is 34%, the draw 22%, and the away win 45%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6% (edge 7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.0% (edge 8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4% (edge 6%), Under 7.5 at 94.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.3% (edge 7%), Over 1.5 at 92.0% (edge 11%), Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.1% (edge 3%), and Away over 0.5 goals at 88.7% (edge 19%). Nieciecza’s recent draw streak and Lechia’s two-game winning run add context, but the model’s edge on the away win remains the headline.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nieciecza win
33.7%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 1.98
Edge
-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.16
Dafabet
2.12
Betano
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.57
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.75
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Dafabet
3.60
Lechia Gdansk win
44.5%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.22
Edge
+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.85
SBO
3.57
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nieciecza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.83
1.27
1.53
1.53
2.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.35
2.05
1.36
1.64
1.33
2.56
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.73
1.75
1.62
1.64
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
1.40
1.67
1.33
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.80
1.80
2.20
1.60
1.40
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.80
0.33
2.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.1%
@ 1.16+11.9%
Under 1.5
7.9%
@ 4.67-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.65
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.2%
@ 1.53+16.9%
Under 2.5
22.8%
@ 2.33-16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.0%
@ 2.33+18.2%
Under 3.5
42.0%
@ 1.54-18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Both teams to score
Yes
76.0%
@ 1.49+13.9%
No
24.0%
@ 2.44-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
William Hil
1.50
No
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.7%@ 6.90+1.2%
1-2
7.7%@ 10.73+3.5%
2-2
7.3%@ 10.70+3.1%
2-1
6.7%@ 7.78+0.9%
1-3
5.6%@ 23.17+3.6%
2-3
5.3%@ 24.07+3.4%
3-2
4.6%@ 17.55+2.0%
3-1
4.2%@ 12.46+0.6%
Nieciecza goals ↓
Lechia Gdansk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
3.0%
4.0%
2.9%
1.6%
1
2.5%
7.7%
7.7%
5.6%
3.0%
2
3.1%
6.7%
7.3%
5.3%
2.9%
3
1.9%
4.2%
4.6%
3.3%
1.8%
4
0.9%
2.0%
2.2%
1.6%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nieciecza goals (down), columns = Lechia Gdansk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk are level in average points per game (both 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Nieciecza is 0.33 goals better than Lechia Gdansk in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Nieciecza is 0.17 goals better than Lechia Gdansk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nieciecza or Draw
55.5%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-16.7%
34%
22%
45%
covers Nieciecza + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Nieciecza or Lechia Gdansk
78.3%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
+3.2%
34%
22%
45%
covers Nieciecza + Lechia Gdansk
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
66.3%
Avg Implied 52.8% · @ 1.75
Edge
+13.4%
34%
22%
45%
covers Draw + Lechia Gdansk
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.94
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
@ 1.13+3.0%
Under
15.0%
@ 5.16-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Superbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Nieciecza over/under 1.5
Over
56.5%
@ 1.72+2.8%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.00-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Superbet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Nieciecza over/under 2.5
Over
29.5%
@ 3.26+1.0%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.30-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.46
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Nieciecza over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
@ 6.76-1.4%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Betano
6.50
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5
Over
88.7%
@ 1.28+16.1%
Under
11.3%
@ 3.37-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5
Over
64.0%
@ 2.31+23.9%
Under
36.0%
@ 1.54-23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.57
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.26
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5
Over
37.1%
@ 5.29+19.6%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.13-19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.10
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Lechia Gdansk over/under 3.5
Over
17.6%
@ 13.75+10.7%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.02-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nieciecza, so a minus line means Nieciecza give that many goals of a start and Lechia Gdansk receive them. At -1, Nieciecza must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nieciecza win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nieciecza)
Nieciecza -2
7.9%
@ 6.06-6.5%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 5.26-6.5%
Lechia Gdansk +2
82.0%
@ 1.27+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Superbet
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
4.25
Away
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Nieciecza)
Nieciecza -1
18.0%
@ 3.23-9.2%
Draw -1
15.7%
@ 3.81-7.3%
Lechia Gdansk +1
66.3%
@ 1.76+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
2.95
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Away
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.67
Handicap +1 (Nieciecza)
Nieciecza +1
55.5%
@ 1.27-14.5%
Draw +1
18.2%
@ 5.33+1.5%
Lechia Gdansk -1
26.4%
@ 6.72+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Draw
Superbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Superbet
7.40
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Nieciecza)
Nieciecza +2
73.6%
@ 1.08-12.4%
Draw +2
13.4%
@ 11.00+5.0%
Lechia Gdansk -2
13.0%
@ 17.00+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nieciecza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.53
0.67
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.00
0.55
0.55
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.75
0.94
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.05
1.00
0.90
0.30
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.7%
@ 1.26-0.6%
Under 0.5
27.3%
@ 3.46+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.70
William Hil
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.23-3.8%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.58+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
BetVictor
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 4.99-2.1%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.14+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
William Hil
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.3%
@ 1.68-3.9%
Under
48.7%
@ 2.07+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.61
Under
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.2%
@ 4.30-6.3%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.18+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.35
Superbet
3.90
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 9.62-6.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.7%
@ 2.04-3.6%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.69+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.59
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
@ 6.44-2.5%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.10
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 17.88-3.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nieciecza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.73
0.87
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.29
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.05
0.82
1.09
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.00
0.69
1.21
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.75
1.20
0.70
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
@ 1.16+2.5%
Under 0.5
16.8%
@ 4.84-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.5%
@ 1.76+0.8%
Under 1.5
46.5%
@ 1.95-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.2%
@ 3.26+0.7%
Under 2.5
70.8%
@ 1.30-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.4%
@ 1.46-4.1%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.54+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.43
Under
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.2%
@ 3.17-1.9%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.30+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Superbet
3.05
Under
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.4%
@ 7.70-5.6%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.05+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
7.50
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.2%
@ 1.73+1.7%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.99-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
1.83
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.8%
@ 4.46-6.9%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.16+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
@ 12.38-4.4%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.4%
Under 7.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+5.6%
Over 1.5
92.1%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+11.9%
Away over 0.5 goals
88.7%
1.28
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
+16.1%
Under 6.5
88.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-5.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+1.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.16
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.13
-
+6.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
85.0%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
+3.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.18
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+6.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.14
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+2.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
-
+2.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
82.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-10.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.0%
1.27
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-
+13.0%
Over 2.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.3%
1.23
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
+3.2%
Under 5.5
77.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
-9.8%
Over 2.5
77.2%
1.53
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
+16.9%
BTTS Yes
76.0%
1.49
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
William Hil
1.50
+13.9%
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
1.39
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
-
-
+8.9%
Home +2 handicap
73.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-12.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.8%
1.30
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+1.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
-0.6%
Under 5.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
70.8%
1.30
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-0.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
70.5%
1.30
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
-1.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nieciecza · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kamil Zapolnik23%
Ivan Durdov19%
Rafał Kurzawa17%
Jesús Jiménez16%
Krzysztof Kubica16%
Damian Hilbrycht15%
Morgan Fassbender10%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz7%
Artem Putivtsev6%
Sergio Guerrero4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Isik Gabriel3%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Putivtsev33%
Krzysztof Kubica28%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz21%
Bartosz Kopacz21%
Rafał Kurzawa21%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz21%
Dominik Biniek20%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Damian Hilbrycht18%
Miłosz Matysik18%
Maciej Wolski16%
Sergio Guerrero14%
Isik Gabriel14%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Wojciech Jakubik9%
Lucas Masoero5%
Radu Boboc4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Jesús Jiménez3%
Ivan Durdov0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Morgan Fassbender0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Damian Hilbrycht12%
Radu Boboc7%
Sergio Guerrero7%
Jesús Jiménez6%
Ivan Durdov6%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz6%
Lucas Masoero5%
Maciej Wolski5%
Wojciech Jakubik4%
Krzysztof Kubica4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz3%
Isik Gabriel3%
Morgan Fassbender3%
Rafał Kurzawa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Andrzej Trubeha0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krzysztof Kubica24%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Morgan Fassbender14%
Ivan Durdov12%
Bartosz Kopacz11%
Isik Gabriel7%
Andrzej Trubeha5%
Rafał Kurzawa4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Damian Hilbrycht3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz0%
Jesús Jiménez0%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Lechia Gdansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tomáš Bobček47%
Ivan Zhelyzko23%
Rifet Kapić16%
Dawid Kurminowski13%
Camilo Mena13%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Mohamed Awadalla12%
Bogdan Viunnyk12%
Tomasz Neugebauer9%
Bujar Pllana6%
Matej Rodin4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Matúš Vojtko3%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Elias Olsson0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miłosz Kałahur33%
Ivan Zhelyzko30%
Rifet Kapić25%
Elias Olsson25%
Mohamed Awadalla25%
Bujar Pllana24%
Camilo Mena19%
Matúš Vojtko19%
Tomasz Neugebauer19%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Maksym Diachuk15%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Matej Rodin12%
Tomasz Wójtowicz9%
Dawid Kurminowski9%
Alex Paulsen8%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Bartłomiej Kłudka6%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Camilo Mena23%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Aleksandar Ćirković17%
Ivan Zhelyzko17%
Anton Tsarenko14%
Elias Olsson12%
Matej Rodin12%
Alvis Jaunzems11%
Matúš Vojtko10%
Rifet Kapić9%
Kacper Sezonienko6%
Tomasz Neugebauer6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Bogdan Viunnyk0%
Bujar Pllana0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tomáš Bobček57%
Aleksandar Ćirković21%
Camilo Mena13%
Ivan Zhelyzko10%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Matej Rodin8%
Bujar Pllana6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Rifet Kapić0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Maksym Diachuk0%
Elias Olsson0%
Kacper Sezonienko0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Neugebauer0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Nieciecza's squad is €19m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€4m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Nieciecza's attack is €13m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€2m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Nieciecza's midfield is €4m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€2m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Nieciecza's defence is €2m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€1m vs €3m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów