Nieciecza hosts Polonia Warszawa in the Poland: I Liga. The visitors come off a draw against Ruch Chorzów, while the hosts are looking to bounce back from a defeat to Warta Poznań. This match is projected to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.5%. Nieciecza has scored an average of 1.42 goals at home, while conceding 1.67, against opponents of similar strength. Polonia Warszawa has scored 1.5 goals away, while conceding 1.42, against opponents of similar strength. The model's selection for the match result is a home win, with probabilities of 38% for Nieciecza, 26% for a draw, and 36% for Polonia Warszawa. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals is expected to occur with a probability of 83.9%.
Results analysis
After a run of three defeats, Nieciecza’s home form was still shaky, yet the model tipped a home win with a 39 % probability. The match delivered the opposite, ending 1-3 in favour of Polonia Warszawa, so the model’s favourite was wrong. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4 %), Under 6.5 (96.2 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (92.2 %). The final score of 1-3 confirmed the upset, with Polonia Warszawa extending their recent winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nieciecza win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.46
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
Betano
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.35
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
Dafabet
3.45
Polonia Warszawa win✓ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.54
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.68
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nieciecza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.97
1.38
1.62
1.29
2.36
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.43
2.19
1.50
1.75
1.33
2.78
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.43
1.14
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.42
1.36
1.27
1.62
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.20+5.0%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 4.13-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.52
BetVictor
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.66+3.9%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.10-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.3%
@ 2.63+2.2%
Under 3.5
62.7%
@ 1.43-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
BetVictor
2.70
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.0%
@ 1.54+3.2%
No
37.0%
@ 2.29-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.53
No
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.18+4.8%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.74+3.6%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.74+3.0%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.53+2.3%
1-0
6.2%@ 9.59+1.5%
2-0
5.8%@ 12.77+2.3%
0-1
5.7%@ 9.67+1.1%
0-0
5.6%@ 11.88+1.9%
Nieciecza goals ↓
Polonia Warszawa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.7%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.2%
12%
8.1%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.1%
4.6%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nieciecza goals (down), columns = Polonia Warszawa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Odra Opole
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Nieciecza is 0.50 points worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Nieciecza is 0.17 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Nieciecza is 0.33 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nieciecza or Draw✗ Miss
65.2%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.44
Edge
+1.2%
39%
26%
35%
covers Nieciecza + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Nieciecza or Polonia Warszawa✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.3%
39%
26%
35%
covers Nieciecza + Polonia Warszawa
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Polonia Warszawa✓ Hit
60.8%
Avg Implied 63.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
-2.5%
39%
26%
35%
covers Draw + Polonia Warszawa
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
SBO
1.45
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
@ 1.21+3.5%
Under
20.3%
@ 3.89-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.16
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.75
Nieciecza over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.4%
@ 2.08+2.9%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.67-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
Nieciecza over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 4.33+0.2%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.18-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Under
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Nieciecza over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 9.70-1.9%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.60
Betano
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.6%
@ 1.23+2.0%
Under
22.4%
@ 3.79-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.07
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.1%
@ 2.14+0.9%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.63-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 4.62-1.0%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.16+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Polonia Warszawa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 10.50-2.4%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nieciecza, so a minus line means Nieciecza give that many goals of a start and Polonia Warszawa receive them. At -1, Nieciecza must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nieciecza win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nieciecza)Actual: Polonia Warszawa
Nieciecza -2
8.1%
@ 9.73-1.0%
Draw -2
12.0%
@ 6.97-0.8%
Polonia Warszawa +2
79.9%
@ 1.14+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.00
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
6.80
Superbet
6.60
Away
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Nieciecza)Actual: Polonia Warszawa
Nieciecza -1
20.1%
@ 4.59+1.1%
Draw -1
19.0%
@ 4.15-2.0%
Polonia Warszawa +1
60.8%
@ 1.46+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Nieciecza)Actual: Polonia Warszawa
Nieciecza +1
65.2%
@ 1.44+4.7%
Draw +1
17.8%
@ 4.23-2.9%
Polonia Warszawa -1
17.1%
@ 4.63-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Handicap +2 (Nieciecza)Actual: Draw
Nieciecza +2
82.9%
@ 1.15+6.7%
Draw +2
10.5%
@ 6.33-3.3%
Polonia Warszawa -2
6.5%
@ 8.90-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nieciecza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.56
0.69
0.43
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.57
1.00
0.58
0.58
0.56
1.56
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.21
0.43
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.54
0.18
0.36
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.6%
@ 1.30-0.4%
Under 0.5
29.4%
@ 3.18+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.7%
@ 2.41-2.8%
Under 1.5
64.3%
@ 1.51+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
William Hil
2.38
Under
William Hil
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
BetVictor
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 5.58-3.1%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.12+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
William Hil
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.0%
@ 1.90+4.2%
Under
47.0%
@ 1.81-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 5.42-1.2%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Superbet
5.40
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.62-3.3%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 1.94-6.8%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.77+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 5.61-5.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.10+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 14.25-4.9%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nieciecza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
0.81
0.94
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.29
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.19
0.92
1.17
0.78
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.21
0.71
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.88
1.18
0.91
1.00
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.9%
Under 1.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.0%
Under 2.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nieciecza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nieciecza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.12
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.20
Unibet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.0%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.7%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.0%
1.27
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nieciecza · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kamil Zapolnik23%
Ivan Durdov19%
Rafał Kurzawa17%
Jesús Jiménez16%
Krzysztof Kubica16%
Damian Hilbrycht15%
Morgan Fassbender10%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz7%
Artem Putivtsev6%
Sergio Guerrero4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Isik Gabriel3%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Putivtsev33%
Krzysztof Kubica28%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz21%
Bartosz Kopacz21%
Rafał Kurzawa21%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz21%
Dominik Biniek20%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Damian Hilbrycht18%
Miłosz Matysik18%
Maciej Wolski16%
Sergio Guerrero14%
Isik Gabriel14%
Andrzej Trubeha10%
Wojciech Jakubik9%
Lucas Masoero5%
Radu Boboc4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Jesús Jiménez3%
Ivan Durdov0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Morgan Fassbender0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Damian Hilbrycht12%
Radu Boboc7%
Sergio Guerrero7%
Jesús Jiménez6%
Ivan Durdov6%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz6%
Lucas Masoero5%
Maciej Wolski5%
Wojciech Jakubik4%
Krzysztof Kubica4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz3%
Isik Gabriel3%
Morgan Fassbender3%
Rafał Kurzawa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Bartosz Kopacz0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Andrzej Trubeha0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krzysztof Kubica24%
Kamil Zapolnik19%
Morgan Fassbender14%
Ivan Durdov12%
Bartosz Kopacz11%
Isik Gabriel7%
Andrzej Trubeha5%
Rafał Kurzawa4%
Igor Strzałek4%
Damian Hilbrycht3%
Lucas Masoero0%
Maciej Ambrosiewicz0%
Jesús Jiménez0%
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz0%
Maciej Wolski0%
Artem Putivtsev0%
Miłosz Mleczko0%
Radu Boboc0%
Adrián Chovan0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Dominik Biniek0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Wojciech Jakubik0%
Diego Deisadze0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Nieciecza's squad is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Nieciecza's attack is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Nieciecza's midfield is €1m more valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Nieciecza's defence is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów