Nizhny Novgorod are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 72 % chance of a home win, 18 % for a draw and 10 % for Volga Ulyanovsk to triumph. The expected total goals hover at 3.4, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 10.9 % probability. Nizhny Novgorod average 2.57 goals scored and concede just one at home against similar-strength opponents, while Volga Ulyanovsk, playing away, average 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include an away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), an away under 2.5 2H goals (99.0 %), an away under 3.5 goals (98.8 %), an overall under 7.5 (97.8 %), a home +2 handicap (96.8 %), an under 6.5 (94.5 %), another away under 2.5 goals (94.4 %) and an away under 1.5 HT goals (93.8 %). Nizhny Novgorod’s recent form, winning their last match 4-2, contrasts with Volga Ulyanovsk’s two-game losing streak, reinforcing the home side’s advantage.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent form streaks. Nizhny Novgorod had a 72% chance of winning, while the model had a 18% chance of a draw and only a 10% chance of an away win. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.8%, Home +2 handicap hit at 96.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 94.5%, and the duplicate Away under 2.5 goals hit at 94.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod win✗ Miss
72.5%
Avg Implied 62.5% · @ 1.48
Edge
+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Dafabet
1.49
SBO
1.45
Draw✓ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.17
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.43
Pinnacle
4.40
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Volga Ulyanovsk win✗ Miss
10.0%
Avg Implied 15.3% · @ 6.05
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.54
Pinnacle
6.45
Marathonbet
6.35
Dafabet
6.00
Superbet
5.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.47
1.13
1.20
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.25
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (15)
2.00
1.27
2.57
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
1.07
1.53
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.59
1.17
1.75
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.22+10.5%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 3.69-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
3.92
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
Superbet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
@ 1.82+13.2%
Under 2.5
34.7%
@ 1.97-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
SBO
1.94
Superbet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.3%
@ 2.91+11.9%
Under 3.5
56.7%
@ 1.33-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.02
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.89+4.9%
No
46.4%
@ 1.80-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
No
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.9%@ 6.43+4.2%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.48+3.6%
3-0
9.1%@ 9.94+4.8%
1-1
8.2%@ 7.28+2.3%
1-0
7.9%@ 6.00+0.8%
3-1
7.8%@ 11.69+4.1%
4-0
5.7%@ 17.96+3.3%
4-1
4.9%@ 20.85+2.8%
Nizhny Novgorod goals ↓
Volga Ulyanovsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
2.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
7.9%
8.2%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
9.3%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.1%
7.8%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
5.7%
4.9%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nizhny Novgorod goals (down), columns = Volga Ulyanovsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
Arsenal Tula
1.12
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Nizhny Novgorod is 1.12 points better than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Ural
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Nizhny Novgorod is 1.83 goals better than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod is 0.07 goals better than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Nizhny Novgorod is 2.0 percentage points worse than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod
For 4.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Volga Ulyanovsk
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nizhny Novgorod
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.3
10.8
4.1
4.5
3.7
28.3
28.7
27.9
vs Stronger (25)
10.4
10.6
10.2
4.2
5.3
3.4
27.9
29.6
26.7
vs Similar (25)
9.7
8.2
11.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
28.8
27.9
30.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
37%
65%
56%
72%
40%
97%
100%
95%
% under line
49%
63%
35%
44%
28%
60%
3%
0%
5%
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.3
6.0
6.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
6.5
-
6.5
2.2
2.3
2.1
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
6.0
6.0
-
2.2
2.2
2.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
28%
32%
24%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
72%
68%
76%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.9%
@ 1.78-7.4%
Under 9.5
55.1%
@ 1.94+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.6%
Under 3.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.8%
Under 21.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nizhny Novgorod or Draw✓ Hit
90.0%
Avg Implied 84.6% · @ 1.09
Edge
+5.4%
72%
18%
10%
covers Nizhny Novgorod + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
SBO
1.06
Nizhny Novgorod or Volga Ulyanovsk✗ Miss
82.5%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.18
Edge
+4.5%
72%
18%
10%
covers Nizhny Novgorod + Volga Ulyanovsk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
SBO
1.16
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.46
Edge
-9.9%
72%
18%
10%
covers Draw + Volga Ulyanovsk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.61
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.35
SBO
2.31
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.8%
@ 1.09+8.0%
Under
8.2%
@ 5.65-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
5.00
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.3%
@ 1.60+13.0%
Under
28.7%
@ 2.24-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.35
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.12
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 2.88+13.6%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.36-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Superbet
2.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 6.10+9.3%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.08-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Under
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.6%
@ 1.65+1.4%
Under
42.4%
@ 2.12-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.2%
@ 4.37+0.1%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 9.90-3.7%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.90
Under
Superbet
1.02
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nizhny Novgorod, so a minus line means Nizhny Novgorod give that many goals of a start and Volga Ulyanovsk receive them. At -1, Nizhny Novgorod must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nizhny Novgorod win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nizhny Novgorod)Actual: Volga Ulyanovsk
Nizhny Novgorod -2
30.1%
@ 4.40+9.8%
Draw -2
21.1%
@ 4.50+1.2%
Volga Ulyanovsk +2
48.8%
@ 1.50-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.50
Handicap -1 (Nizhny Novgorod)Actual: Volga Ulyanovsk
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.77
0.50
0.67
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.0%
@ 1.32+9.2%
Under 0.5
21.0%
@ 3.06-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.23
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Superbet
2.92
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.6%
@ 2.62+14.3%
Under 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.43-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Superbet
2.52
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.7%
@ 6.12+9.9%
Under 2.5
75.3%
@ 1.06-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.45
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
5.45
Under
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
69.6%
@ 1.61+12.0%
Under
30.4%
@ 2.19-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.06
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
31.5%
@ 4.00+8.4%
Under
68.5%
@ 1.20-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.7%
@ 2.96-0.6%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.34+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.23
Marathonbet
2.96
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Under
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nizhny Novgorod
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.53
0.73
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.13
0.00
0.75
0.57
1.57
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.93
1.14
0.71
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.82
0.67
1.08
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
86.9%
@ 1.18+9.6%
Under 0.5
13.1%
@ 4.00-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Superbet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.2%
@ 2.00+9.8%
Under 1.5
43.8%
@ 1.73-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.69
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.4%
@ 4.10+4.2%
Under 2.5
73.6%
@ 1.17-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
78.0%
@ 1.41+13.0%
Under
22.0%
@ 2.62-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.55
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 2.92+14.5%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.35-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.85
Under
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 7.40+6.4%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.05-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Under
1xBet
1.05
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.0%
@ 2.42-1.0%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.48+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 9.47-2.2%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
8.70
Under
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.8%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
90.0%
1.09
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
SBO
1.06
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
90.0%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+18.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.5%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.5%
1.18
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
SBO
1.16
-
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.0%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.8%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.41
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
-
-
-
+13.0%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
1.31
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
-
+8.4%
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.7%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
-
-9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
75.3%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-9.9%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
75.1%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.13
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.6%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Home win
72.5%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Dafabet
1.49
SBO
1.45
+10.0%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
71.3%
1.60
Superbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
-
+13.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nizhny Novgorod · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Manuel Boselli38%
Adrián Balboa25%
Olakunle Olusegun19%
Thiago Vecino14%
Daniil Lesovoy12%
Vyacheslav Grulev10%
Luka Tičić8%
Renaldo Cephas6%
Sven Karič3%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Nikita Kakkoev0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Juan Castillo0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Yuriy Koledin0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Egor Smelov0%
Maksim Shnaptsev0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Manuel Boselli50%
Viktor Aleksandrov37%
Edgardo Fariña36%
Adrián Balboa25%
Andrey Ivlev24%
Renaldo Cephas22%
Juan Castillo22%
Matvey Urvantsev20%
Mamadou Maiga18%
Nikita Kakkoev18%
Maksim Shnaptsev17%
Nikita Ermakov17%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy17%
Daniil Lesovoy16%
Thiago Vecino14%
Egor Smelov14%
Sven Karič14%
Olakunle Olusegun12%
Nikolay Kalinskiy11%
Vyacheslav Grulev10%
Yuriy Koledin5%
Nikita Medvedev3%
Luka Tičić0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Egor Smelov14%
Olakunle Olusegun12%
Renaldo Cephas11%
Nikita Kakkoev6%
Yuriy Koledin5%
Maksim Shnaptsev4%
Daniil Lesovoy4%
Luka Tičić4%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Adrián Balboa0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Vyacheslav Grulev0%
Sven Karič0%
Juan Manuel Boselli0%
Thiago Vecino0%
Juan Castillo0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Manuel Boselli31%
Vyacheslav Grulev24%
Olakunle Olusegun19%
Adrián Balboa17%
Juan Castillo11%
Alex Opoku Sarfo7%
Daniil Lesovoy4%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Kakkoev0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Sven Karič0%
Luka Tičić0%
Thiago Vecino0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Yuriy Koledin0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Egor Smelov0%
Maksim Shnaptsev0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Nizhny Novgorod's squad is €11m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€18m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Nizhny Novgorod's attack is €4m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€6m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Nizhny Novgorod's midfield is €1m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Nizhny Novgorod's defence is €6m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€9m vs €3m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sochi
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk