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NK Domzale vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Date: 04/11/2023
Time: 16:30
Final 1-2
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Vs
31%
28%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NK Domzale win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✓ Hit
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D12L13L21W02L23L30W02L13LH·CEL20/08A·MAR26/08H·KOP02/09A·RAD17/09H·ALU22/09H·MUR27/09A·BRA30/09H·ROG08/10H·OLI21/10A·CEL27/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.401.071.401.601.40
vs Stronger (13)1.151.460.831.331.431.57
vs Similar (17)1.471.351.221.441.751.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D02L12L01L31W01L31W12L21WA·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09H·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10H·ROG28/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.331.671.131.401.53
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (18)1.331.501.621.121.101.80
vs Weaker (10)2.100.702.000.832.250.50
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2 ✓
8.9%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
5.6%
NK Domzale goals ↓
Maribor goals →
01234
07.7%8.3%7.1%3.5%1.3%
16.9%13%8.9%4.4%1.6%
25.1%7.6%5.6%2.8%1.0%
32.2%3.2%2.4%1.2%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Domzale goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
NK Domzale is 0.75 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
NK Domzale is 0.47 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
NK Domzale is 0.78 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
NK Domzale is 15.9 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (44% vs 59%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

For 5.8 · Against 6.6 · Total 12.4

🚩 Corners

1501966691217668693957621012151313141512128A·CELH·OLIA·BRAH·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARH·CELA·OLIH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

90212212154312311122333945113A·CELH·OLIA·BRAH·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARH·CELA·OLIH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.4

⚠️ Fouls

350118912116127122314181212715118151119211719353224221926A·CELH·OLIA·BRAH·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARH·CELA·OLIH·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

For 4.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.4

🚩 Corners

150754756428529654563111211116871591114A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

902363433211323142222397525464A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.5

⚠️ Fouls

3607121361121162018141114121213108117919193236322524231916A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CELH·NK H·FENH·BRAA·FEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.99.13.33.73.026.727.126.3
vs Stronger (21)9.29.29.13.54.22.926.827.925.6
vs Similar (29)9.810.69.13.23.33.126.626.127.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line43%44%41%46%56%36%79%82%75%
% under line57%56%59%54%44%64%21%18%25%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.98.83.43.92.825.525.525.6
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (27)8.78.78.64.05.13.126.827.226.3
vs Weaker (21)10.211.98.02.52.62.424.523.626.2
% over line41%44%38%44%46%42%68%65%71%
% under line59%56%62%56%54%58%32%35%29%
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.8
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Koper
9.7
Bravo
9.4
NK Domzale
9.4
Maribor
9.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.3
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.2
Aluminij
26.1
Bravo
25.8
Maribor
25.6
Mura
25.3
Koper
24.5
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.7%
Under 3.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.9%
Under 21.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D11D13L01L01L22D10W00D01LH·CEL20/08A·MAR26/08H·KOP02/09A·RAD17/09H·ALU22/09H·MUR27/09A·BRA30/09H·ROG08/10H·OLI21/10A·CEL27/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.330.600.930.80
vs Stronger (13)0.690.460.500.330.860.57
vs Similar (17)0.590.880.220.781.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L01L01L01L01L21W00D11DA·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09H·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10H·ROG28/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.670.670.530.53
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (18)0.500.670.620.620.400.70
vs Weaker (10)0.900.500.830.671.000.25
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L00D20W01L01L20W02L12LH·CEL20/08A·MAR26/08H·KOP02/09A·RAD17/09H·ALU22/09H·MUR27/09A·BRA30/09H·ROG08/10H·OLI21/10A·CEL27/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.730.800.670.60
vs Stronger (13)0.461.000.331.000.571.00
vs Similar (17)0.880.471.000.670.750.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D01L11D00D30W00D10W12L10WA·ROG20/08H·NK 26/08A·CEL03/09A·OLI16/09H·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10H·ROG28/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.731.000.470.871.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (18)0.830.831.000.500.701.10
vs Weaker (10)1.200.201.170.171.250.25
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls89.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards82.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls79.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners70.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.570.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards70.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ND wins
2
Draws
1
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

NK Domzale vs Maribor · H/A from ND
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/23AMaribor Vs ND1-1
22/04/23AMaribor Vs ND1-0
23/02/23HND Vs Maribor1-1
22/10/22AMaribor Vs ND0-3
14/08/22HND Vs Maribor3-2

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/23ACelje Vs ND3-1
21/10/23HND Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-2
08/10/23HND Vs Rogaška3-0
30/09/23ABravo Vs ND3-2
27/09/23HND Vs Mura0-2
22/09/23HND Vs Aluminij2-1
17/09/23ARadomlje Vs ND3-1
02/09/23HND Vs Koper1-2
26/08/23AMaribor Vs ND1-1
20/08/23HND Vs Celje1-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23HMAR Vs Rogaška2-1
22/10/23ABravo Vs MAR2-1
07/10/23HMAR Vs Mura3-1
01/10/23AAluminij Vs MAR1-0
28/09/23HMAR Vs Radomlje3-1
24/09/23HMAR Vs Koper0-1
16/09/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR2-1
03/09/23ACelje Vs MAR2-0
26/08/23HMAR Vs NK Domzale1-1
20/08/23ARogaška Vs MAR2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.30
HomeLWLWL1.20
AwayLDLLL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%28%40%
AVG goals2.822.802.84
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.421.281.56
Conceded1.401.521.28
BTTS60%64%56%
Clean Sheet24%16%32%
Corners9.519.899.12
Cards4.775.114.41
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.68
HomeDLWWW2.00
AwayDLLLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals2.943.042.85
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.802.001.62
Conceded1.141.041.23
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners9.389.948.75
Cards4.945.224.62

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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