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NK Domzale vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2025
Time: 18:15
Final 1-2
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Vs
22%
27%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

NK Domzale win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L02L11D03L20W22D11D13L41W23LH·RAD14/04A·OLI19/04H·PRI26/04A·KOP04/05H·NAF11/05H·BRA18/05A·CEL25/05H·TRI29/05A·TRI01/06A·PRI19/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.771.201.671.271.87
vs Stronger (12)0.832.081.201.600.572.43
vs Similar (18)1.501.561.201.701.881.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W40W21W11D31W11D01L12L01LA·NAF16/04A·MUR21/04H·RAD26/04A·OLI03/05H·CEL07/05H·PRI11/05A·KOP18/05H·NAF25/05H·CEL20/07A·PAK24/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.902.001.001.350.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.291.141.671.671.000.75
vs Weaker (16)1.940.692.290.431.670.89
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.9%
0-2
9.7%
1-2 ✓
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.1%
NK Domzale goals ↓
Maribor goals →
01234
08.8%11%9.7%5.1%2.0%
16.3%13%9.5%5.0%2.0%
23.7%5.9%4.7%2.5%1.0%
31.2%1.9%1.5%0.8%0.3%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Domzale goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
NK Domzale is 0.94 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.61).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
NK Domzale is 0.78 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.73).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
NK Domzale is 0.90 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (2.11 vs 1.21).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MariborMaribor

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (29)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.0-10.00.30.20.418.0-18.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (29)10.0-10.00.50.30.718.0-18.0
vs Weaker (21)---0.00.00.0---
% over line100%-100%6%4%8%0%-0%
% under line0%-0%94%96%92%100%-100%
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.5
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D00D10W01L10W00D30W10WH·RAD14/04A·OLI19/04H·PRI26/04A·KOP04/05H·NAF11/05H·BRA18/05A·CEL25/05H·TRI29/05A·TRI01/06A·PRI19/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.330.930.670.67
vs Stronger (12)0.330.830.401.000.290.71
vs Similar (18)0.610.780.300.901.000.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D11D11D20W01L01L10W00DA·NAF16/04A·MUR21/04H·RAD26/04A·OLI03/05H·CEL07/05H·PRI11/05A·KOP18/05H·NAF25/05H·CEL20/07A·PAK24/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.331.080.380.410.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.431.000.670.380.25
vs Weaker (16)0.750.251.140.140.440.33
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L02L00D03L10W21W01L13L11D13LH·RAD14/04A·OLI19/04H·PRI26/04A·KOP04/05H·NAF11/05H·BRA18/05A·CEL25/05H·TRI29/05A·TRI01/06A·PRI19/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.870.730.601.20
vs Stronger (12)0.501.250.800.600.291.71
vs Similar (18)0.890.780.900.800.880.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W40W10W00D11D10W00D02L01LA·NAF16/04A·MUR21/04H·RAD26/04A·OLI03/05H·CEL07/05H·PRI11/05A·KOP18/05H·NAF25/05H·CEL20/07A·PAK24/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.570.920.620.940.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.710.671.000.620.50
vs Weaker (16)1.190.441.140.291.220.56
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls82.8%--------
Over 2.5 cards78.9%--------
Under 5.5 cards75.4%--------
Under 3.574.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners71.7%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
ND wins
2
Draws
5
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

NK Domzale vs Maribor · H/A from ND
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/25HND Vs Maribor1-0
01/02/25AMaribor Vs ND2-1
29/09/24HND Vs Maribor0-3
21/07/24AMaribor Vs ND4-1
27/04/24HND Vs Maribor1-1
02/03/24AMaribor Vs ND3-0
04/11/23HND Vs Maribor1-2
26/08/23AMaribor Vs ND1-1

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/25APrimorje Vs ND3-2
01/06/25ATriglav Vs ND1-4
29/05/25HND Vs Triglav1-3
25/05/25ACelje Vs ND1-1
18/05/25HND Vs Bravo2-2
11/05/25HND Vs Nafta2-0
04/05/25AKoper Vs ND3-0
26/04/25HND Vs Primorje1-1
19/04/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs ND2-0
14/04/25HND Vs Radomlje1-2

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/25APaks Vs MAR1-0
20/07/25HMAR Vs Celje1-2
25/05/25HMAR Vs Nafta0-1
18/05/25AKoper Vs MAR1-1
11/05/25HMAR Vs Primorje3-1
07/05/25HMAR Vs Celje1-1
03/05/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR1-2
26/04/25HMAR Vs Radomlje4-0
21/04/25AMura Vs MAR1-2
16/04/25ANafta Vs MAR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL0.98
HomeLDWDL0.92
AwayLLDWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%23%29%
AVG goals3.042.773.33
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %60%54%67%
Over 3.5 %40%31%50%
Scored1.221.081.38
Conceded1.821.691.96
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet20%23%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.64
HomeWDWLL2.08
AwayDWWDL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%64%28%
AVG goals2.623.002.24
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %50%60%40%
Over 3.5 %22%36%8%
Scored1.622.041.20
Conceded1.000.961.04
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners10.00-10.00
Cards4.674.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3474
68%
2.2
8532+53
3.4
85%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7162.50.9
-
2KoperKoper3467
59%
2.0
7143+28
3.4
82%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.11.3
-
3BravoBravo3462
56%
1.8
6251+11
3.3
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.5
-
4MariborMaribor3353
45%
1.6
5740+17
2.9
82%
58%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.2
-
5Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3352
45%
1.6
4740+7
2.6
79%
58%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6151.41.2
-
6RadomljeRadomlje3445
38%
1.3
5063-13
3.3
97%
79%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.9
-
7AluminijAluminij3436
29%
1.1
4261-19
3.0
85%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.8
-
8MuraMura3431
24%
0.9
3555-20
2.6
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
9PrimorjePrimorje3623
17%
0.6
3175-44
2.9
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.1
-
10NK DomzaleNK Domzale1812
17%
0.7
1738-21
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11NaftaNafta24
50%
2.0
10+1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.50.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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