Nõmme United’s recent slump of four straight losses has left their home form weak, with an average of one goal scored and none conceded against stronger opposition. In contrast, Flora Tallinn, fresh from a win, shows a robust away attack, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded against weaker teams. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, expecting 3.3 goals on average, with the most likely total of three goals at 22 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1 % probability. The model favours an away win, with a 59 % chance, while a draw sits at 22 % and a home win at 19 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97 %), Under 6.5 (94.9 %), Away +2 handicap (92.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.9 %), Under 5.5 (88.4 %), Away over 0.5 goals (88.2 %), and Over 1.5 (85 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United win
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.03
1.33
3.60
1.13
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
2.95
1.32
2.92
1.42
3.00
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
7.00
0.33
9.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.17
2.88
1.18
2.23
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.73
1.73
3.60
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.53
0.84
2.58
0.83
2.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
6.7%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.3%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
6.4%
7.6%
5.3%
2.7%
1
3.5%
10%
9.6%
6.7%
3.5%
2
2.8%
5.9%
6.1%
4.2%
2.2%
3
1.2%
2.5%
2.6%
1.8%
0.9%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Nõmme United is 0.92 points worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United is 0.65 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Nõmme United is 0.94 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United or Draw
44.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Nõmme United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United or Flora Tallinn
77.1%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Nõmme United + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora Tallinn
78.0%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Draw + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
87.5%
Under
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
34.6%
Under
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme United, so a minus line means Nõmme United give that many goals of a start and Flora Tallinn receive them. At -1, Nõmme United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.3%
Flora Tallinn +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United -1
9.3%
Draw -1
12.6%
Flora Tallinn +1
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United +1
44.8%
Draw +1
21.3%
Flora Tallinn -1
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United +2
66.1%
Draw +2
16.9%
Flora Tallinn -2
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.60
1.87
0.73
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.92
1.60
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.24
0.53
1.08
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.64
1.60
0.40
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.47
1.08
0.58
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.8%
Under 1.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.73
0.40
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.68
1.42
0.50
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.63
1.65
0.65
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.09
2.00
1.60
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.37
1.50
0.25
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.8%
Under 1.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.5%
Under 2.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Nõmme United's squad is €1m less valuable than Flora Tallinn's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva