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Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

Date: 03/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
25%
26%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win✓ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-841W52W40W10W60W41W80W23L51W50WA·ELV13/09H·TAR18/09A·NÕM22/09H·VII27/09H·LUU19/10A·FC 23/10H·TAL26/10A·FCI03/11A·FLO06/11H·ELV09/11← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.800.734.130.603.470.87
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (23)3.700.744.080.583.270.91
vs Weaker (4)6.750.756.001.007.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W32W31W10W31W20W10W21W11D11DH·FC 21/09A·LAA24/09H·FLO28/09H·VAP05/10A·LAA19/10A·TAL22/10A·KUR25/10H·TAM02/11H·PAI08/11H·PAI28/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.901.880.941.290.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.001.171.431.140.401.20
vs Weaker (18)2.000.722.220.781.780.67
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.5%
0-2
8.2%
0-0
6.8%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
1-0
5.5%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
01234
06.8%8.5%8.2%4.7%2.0%
15.5%12%9.6%5.5%2.3%
23.9%6.6%5.6%3.2%1.4%
31.5%2.6%2.2%1.2%0.5%
40.4%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Tammeka
2.14
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Nõmme United is 1.00 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Vaprus
1.62
Flora Tallinn
1.62
Tammeka
1.57
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United is 0.88 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Kuressaare
1.67
Tammeka
1.71
Vaprus
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Nõmme United is 1.50 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W41W20W00D40W20W50W11D41W10WA·ELV13/09H·TAR18/09A·NÕM22/09H·VII27/09H·LUU19/10A·FC 23/10H·TAL26/10A·FCI03/11A·FLO06/11H·ELV09/11← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.030.332.400.401.670.27
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (23)1.960.352.250.421.640.27
vs Weaker (4)4.000.254.500.503.500.00
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W11D00D01L20W00D01L11D00DH·FC 21/09A·LAA24/09H·FLO28/09H·VAP05/10A·LAA19/10A·TAL22/10A·KUR25/10H·TAM02/11H·PAI08/11H·PAI28/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.370.500.250.790.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.250.420.430.290.000.60
vs Weaker (18)0.890.330.560.221.220.44
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W11D20W10W20W21W30W12L10W40WA·ELV13/09H·TAR18/09A·NÕM22/09H·VII27/09H·LUU19/10A·FC 23/10H·TAL26/10A·FCI03/11A·FLO06/11H·ELV09/11← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.401.730.201.800.60
vs Stronger (3)0.670.331.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)1.740.391.830.171.640.64
vs Weaker (4)2.750.501.500.504.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D20W10W30W00D10W20W00D11DH·FC 21/09A·LAA24/09H·FLO28/09H·VAP05/10A·LAA19/10A·TAL22/10A·KUR25/10H·TAM02/11H·PAI08/11H·PAI28/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.531.380.690.500.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.750.751.000.860.400.60
vs Weaker (18)1.110.391.670.560.560.22
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Nõmme United's squad is €3m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Nõmme United and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Nõmme United and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Nõmme United's defence is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
NU wins
2
Draws
2
KN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs NU3-0
19/07/24HNU Vs Kalju Nomme0-4
28/05/24AKalju Nomme Vs NU1-1
17/03/24HNU Vs Kalju Nomme0-0

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HNU Vs Elva5-0
06/11/25AFlora II Vs NU1-5
03/11/25AFCI Levadia II Vs NU3-2
26/10/25HNU Vs Tallinna Kalev II8-0
23/10/25AFC Tallinn Vs NU1-4
19/10/25HNU Vs Luunja6-0
27/09/25HNU Vs Viimsi1-0
22/09/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs NU0-4
18/09/25HNU Vs Tartu Welco5-2
13/09/25AElva Vs NU1-4

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/26HKN Vs Paide1-1
08/11/25HKN Vs Paide1-1
02/11/25HKN Vs Tammeka2-1
25/10/25AKuressaare Vs KN0-1
22/10/25ATallinna Kalev Vs KN0-2
19/10/25ALaagri Vs KN1-3
05/10/25HKN Vs Vaprus1-0
28/09/25HKN Vs Flora Tallinn3-1
24/09/25ALaagri Vs KN2-3
21/09/25HKN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.92
HomeWWWWW2.00
AwayWWWLW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%64%56%
AVG goals3.964.083.84
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %70%76%64%
Over 3.5 %56%64%48%
Scored2.682.842.52
Conceded1.281.241.32
BTTS50%36%64%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD1.94
HomeWWWDD2.04
AwayDWWWW1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%62%54%
AVG goals2.943.152.71
Over 1.5 %82%92%71%
Over 2.5 %60%65%54%
Over 3.5 %34%31%38%
Scored1.822.081.54
Conceded1.121.081.17
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet32%31%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2TammekaTammeka715
71%
2.1
1112-1
3.3
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
4PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
5LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
6Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn812
50%
1.5
1312+1
3.1
88%
88%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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