PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match in the Estonia: Meistriliiga pits Nömme United against Kuressaare, with the home side coming off a recent defeat to Trans Narva, while the away team, Kuressaare, is still riding high from their previous win against Laagri. The model's predictions suggest a finely balanced contest, with Nömme United favored to win at home, but Kuressaare has a realistic chance of upsetting the odds.
The model predicts a 40% chance of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%.
In terms of form, Nömme United has been scoring an average of 5.14 goals at home, but has been conceding just 0.43 goals. Meanwhile, Kuressaare has been scoring an average of 0.43 goals away from home, but has been conceding 1.86 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 77.0%, and Under 3.5, with a probability of 70.6%. Nömme United has a 40% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 32% chance of losing.
The win extends Nõmme United's run, who have bounced back from a defeat with a 3-2 victory over Kuressaare. The final score was well above the expected total of 2.7 goals, with the model predicting a most likely score of 2-1. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was correct, with Nõmme United's strong home form and average of 5.14 goals scored at home contributing to the result. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a probability of 77%, while Under 3.5 missed with a probability of 70.6%.
Nõmme United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 3.77 | 0.83 | 3.94 | 0.75 | 3.57 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 3.65 | 0.87 | 3.85 | 0.77 | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 6.75 | 0.75 | 6.00 | 1.00 | 7.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Kuressaare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.73 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.73 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.67 | 2.06 | 0.78 | 2.00 | 0.56 | 2.11 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| Kuressaare goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 13% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Nõmme United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.07 | 0.43 | 2.31 | 0.56 | 1.79 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.00 | 0.48 | 2.15 | 0.62 | 1.80 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 4.00 | 0.25 | 4.50 | 0.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Kuressaare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.97 | 0.33 | 1.07 | 0.40 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.28 | 1.11 | 0.22 | 1.22 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.56 | 0.89 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Nõmme United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 0.40 | 1.62 | 0.19 | 1.79 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.65 | 0.39 | 1.69 | 0.15 | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.75 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 4.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Kuressaare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.39 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 1.11 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 01/09/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 16/06/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/24 | H | 1-1 |
Nõmme United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 5-0 | |
| 06/11/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 03/11/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 8-0 | |
| 23/10/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 6-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/09/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 18/09/25 | H | 5-2 |
Kuressaare| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 26/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Kalju Nomme | 7 | 14 | 57% | 2.0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 3.0 | 83% | 83% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 |  Paide | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 5 |  Laagri | 7 | 9 | 43% | 1.3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 3.3 | 71% | 71% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 3.4 | 86% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | - |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 8 | 7 | 25% | 0.9 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 2.6 | 50% | 50% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 |  Trans Narva | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 3.1 | 100% | 71% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 10 | Nõmme United | 7 | 6 | 29% | 0.9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 3.7 | 86% | 86% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | - |