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Nõmme United vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
28%
31%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W02L13L00D02L21W02L02L12L11DA·ELV12/11A·FLO01/03A·PAI10/03H·KAL17/03A·TRA30/03H·TAM05/04A·FC 13/04H·TAL20/04A·VAP26/04H·KUR04/05← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.400.932.070.792.691.06
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.000.000.331.33
vs Similar (25)2.840.882.420.753.231.00
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W21W02L31W12L31W01L11D01L20WH·NÕM10/03H·FLO16/03A·FC 31/03H·KUR06/04A·KAL14/04A·FLO17/04H·TAM20/04A·TRA28/04A·FC 01/05H·TAL04/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.972.070.861.441.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.211.291.501.001.001.50
vs Weaker (16)2.190.692.500.751.880.62
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1 ✓
11.5%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.2%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
011%12%8.2%3.5%1.1%
18.9%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
25.2%6.7%4.3%1.8%0.6%
31.8%2.3%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Nõmme United is 1.58 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.42 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Nõmme United is 1.44 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (0.61 vs 2.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Nõmme United is 1.11 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (2.19 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W02L02L00D01L01L01L02L11D11DA·ELV12/11A·FLO01/03A·PAI10/03H·KAL17/03A·TRA30/03H·TAM05/04A·FC 13/04H·TAL20/04A·VAP26/04H·KUR04/05← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.530.860.501.250.56
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.280.441.000.421.540.46
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D01L11D11D21W00D01L01L10WH·NÕM10/03H·FLO16/03A·FC 31/03H·KUR06/04A·KAL14/04A·FLO17/04H·TAM20/04A·TRA28/04A·FC 01/05H·TAL04/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.471.140.360.750.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.571.000.170.750.88
vs Weaker (16)1.000.381.250.500.750.25
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D11D00D01L20W01L00D01L00DA·ELV12/11A·FLO01/03A·PAI10/03H·KAL17/03A·TRA30/03H·TAM05/04A·FC 13/04H·TAL20/04A·VAP26/04H·KUR04/05← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.401.210.291.440.50
vs Stronger (4)0.250.250.000.000.330.33
vs Similar (25)1.560.441.420.331.690.54
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L20W01L10W01L10W00D10WH·NÕM10/03H·FLO16/03A·FC 31/03H·KUR06/04A·KAL14/04A·FLO17/04H·TAM20/04A·TRA28/04A·FC 01/05H·TAL04/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.500.930.500.690.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.360.710.500.830.250.62
vs Weaker (16)1.190.311.250.251.120.38
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Nõmme United's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Nõmme United's attack is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Nõmme United and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Nõmme United and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
NU wins
0
Draws
1
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Paide · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24APaide Vs NU3-1

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/24HNU Vs Kuressaare1-1
26/04/24AVaprus Vs NU2-1
20/04/24HNU Vs Tallinna Kalev0-2
13/04/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs NU2-0
05/04/24HNU Vs Tammeka2-1
30/03/24ATrans Narva Vs NU2-0
17/03/24HNU Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
10/03/24APaide Vs NU3-1
01/03/24AFlora Tallinn Vs NU2-0
12/11/23AElva Vs NU0-7

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/24HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev2-0
01/05/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI1-0
28/04/24ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-1
20/04/24HPAI Vs Tammeka0-1
17/04/24AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI1-3
14/04/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-1
06/04/24HPAI Vs Kuressaare3-1
31/03/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI2-0
16/03/24HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn2-1
10/03/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD2.08
HomeWDWLD2.12
AwayLLLLL2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%62%65%
AVG goals3.663.333.96
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %48%42%54%
Scored2.622.382.85
Conceded1.040.961.12
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.48
HomeWWWLW1.62
AwayLLWDL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%31%
AVG goals2.342.382.31
Over 1.5 %66%62%69%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.381.461.31
Conceded0.960.921.00
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards10.0010.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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