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Nõmme United vs Paide Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
30%
25%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme United’s recent five losses and Paide’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.2% chance. The model favours an away win, with a 48% probability, while a home win stands at 27% and a draw at 25%. Nõmme United, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 3.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded, whereas Paide, away, averages 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.4%), Away +2 handicap (87.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.3%) and Away over 0.5 goals (84.2%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1232W21W120W12L05L01L20W14L12L32WH·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08H·LAA29/08H·VAP02/09
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.031.333.601.132.471.53
vs Stronger (5)1.002.001.000.001.002.50
vs Similar (22)2.951.322.921.423.001.20
vs Weaker (3)7.000.339.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D31W25L10W14L02L11D41W14L21WA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.332.671.071.331.60
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.561.781.752.001.401.60
vs Weaker (19)2.370.953.200.401.441.56
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
1-3
5.4%
0-0
5.2%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
05.2%6.3%6.5%3.8%1.7%
14.8%11%9.2%5.4%2.4%
24.1%7.3%6.5%3.8%1.7%
31.9%3.4%3.1%1.8%0.8%
40.7%1.2%1.1%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Nõmme United is 1.25 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United is 0.88 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Nõmme United is 1.07 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United or Draw
54.9%
Avg Implied -
30%
25%
45%
covers Nõmme United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United or Paide
74.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
25%
45%
covers Nõmme United + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Paide
70.3%
Avg Implied -
30%
25%
45%
covers Draw + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
Under
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme United, so a minus line means Nõmme United give that many goals of a start and Paide receive them. At -1, Nõmme United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United -2
5.0%
Draw -2
8.8%
Paide +2
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United -1
13.8%
Draw -1
15.9%
Paide +1
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United +1
54.9%
Draw +1
20.2%
Paide -1
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United +2
75.1%
Draw +2
14.0%
Paide -2
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L20W60W02L03L00D00D11D01L31WH·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08H·LAA29/08H·VAP02/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.601.870.731.330.47
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.000.000.751.00
vs Similar (22)1.550.641.500.921.600.30
vs Weaker (3)3.670.005.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D21W15L00D11D01L01L11D11D00DA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.470.470.730.80
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.670.750.750.600.60
vs Weaker (19)1.370.581.800.300.890.89
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W01L60W10W02L01L20W03L11D01LH·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08H·LAA29/08H·VAP02/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.731.730.401.131.07
vs Stronger (5)0.401.201.000.000.251.50
vs Similar (22)1.410.681.420.501.400.90
vs Weaker (3)3.330.334.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W10W03L01L10W30W03L21WA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.200.600.600.80
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.891.111.001.250.801.00
vs Weaker (19)1.000.371.400.100.560.67
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.4%-------
Under 6.595.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.5%-------
Under 5.589.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.5%-------
Away +2 handicap86.2%-------
Over 1.583.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals83.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals83.0%-------
Under 4.578.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.6%-------
Home +2 handicap75.1%-------
Home or Away74.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals73.7%-------
Draw or Away70.3%-------
Away +1 handicap70.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Nõmme United's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Nõmme United's attack is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Nõmme United and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Nõmme United and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
NU wins
0
Draws
5
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Paide · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/26APaide Vs NU4-1
03/11/24HNU Vs Paide0-4
14/09/24APaide Vs NU7-2
12/05/24HNU Vs Paide0-1
10/03/24APaide Vs NU3-1

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HNU Vs Vaprus3-2
29/08/26HNU Vs Laagri1-2
23/08/26APaide Vs NU4-1
19/08/26AHiiumaa Vs NU0-2
14/08/26HNU Vs Tammeka0-1
09/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs NU5-0
31/07/26HNU Vs Trans Narva1-2
23/07/26HNU Vs Raplamaa12-0
17/07/26AFlora Tallinn Vs NU1-2
11/07/26HNU Vs Kuressaare3-2

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI1-2
26/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI4-1
23/08/26HPAI Vs Nõmme United4-1
16/08/26ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-1
12/08/26ARapid Vienna Vs PAI2-0
06/08/26HPAI Vs Rapid Vienna1-4
02/08/26HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-0
19/07/26ALaagri Vs PAI5-2
04/07/26HPAI Vs Vaprus3-1
28/06/26AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW2.26
HomeWLLLW2.31
AwayLWLWL2.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%77%71%
AVG goals4.264.543.96
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %76%81%71%
Over 3.5 %62%65%58%
Scored3.203.582.79
Conceded1.060.961.17
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet36%42%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.80
HomeLWWLW2.00
AwayLLDLW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%60%48%
AVG goals3.103.282.92
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %30%40%20%
Scored1.762.161.36
Conceded1.341.121.56
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.002.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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