Nømme United is the clear favourite to win against Tammeka, with a 63% chance of securing a home win. The model's confidence stems from the team's impressive home form, having scored an average of 4.29 goals and conceded just 0.71 against weaker opponents. In contrast, Tammeka struggles away from home, averaging 0.75 goals scored and 3.25 conceded against stronger opponents. The expected total goals is 4.2, with the most likely score being 2-1, occurring with a probability of 8.3%. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with a 92.7% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 78.7% chance of over 2.5 goals. The model's selection is the home win, with the model also suggesting BTTS Yes, Over 1.5, and Over 2.5 as selections, with probabilities of 72.7%, 92.7%, and 78.7% respectively. The home win percentage is 63%, the draw percentage is 19%, and the away win percentage is 19%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Tammeka secured a 0-1 victory over Nõmme United, extending their recent winning streak. The win marks a turnaround for the away team, who had previously been coming off a series of defeats. However, this result also spells disaster for the pre-match favourite, Nõmme United, who had been tipped by the model to secure a home win with a 63% probability. Unfortunately for the model, its call was incorrect. The model had also suggested a trio of selections, all of which missed the mark: Over 1.5 with a 92.7% probability, Over 2.5 with a 78.7% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 72.4% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United win✗ Miss
63.4%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.42
Edge
+26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.57
Unibet
2.50
Dafabet
2.48
1xBet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.47
Draw✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.55
Edge
-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Tammeka win✓ Hit
18.3%
Avg Implied 37.6% · @ 2.39
Edge
-19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.57
Dafabet
2.46
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
William Hil
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.50
1.13
4.20
0.93
2.80
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
3.52
1.05
3.55
1.18
3.50
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
6.50
0.50
7.67
0.33
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.4
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
2.23
3.14
1.36
1.56
3.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.75
0.80
2.00
0.57
3.29
vs Similar (18)
3.39
1.89
4.44
1.00
2.33
2.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
92.7%
@ 1.09+8.9%
Under 1.5
7.3%
@ 5.61-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
78.7%
@ 1.37+12.1%
Under 2.5
21.3%
@ 2.72-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.43
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
888Sport
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.0%
@ 1.95+12.8%
Under 3.5
40.0%
@ 1.74-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
SBO
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Under
Superbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
72.4%
@ 1.34+3.9%
No
27.6%
@ 2.90-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
No
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.3%@ 9.07+3.6%
3-1
7.5%@ 14.46+4.6%
1-1
6.7%@ 7.39+1.0%
2-2
6.1%@ 9.04+1.4%
2-0
5.7%@ 15.18+2.9%
3-2
5.5%@ 15.41+2.7%
3-0
5.1%@ 24.28+3.4%
4-1
5.1%@ 29.44+3.6%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
1
3.6%
6.7%
4.5%
2.2%
0.8%
2
5.7%
8.3%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
3
5.1%
7.5%
5.5%
2.7%
1.0%
4
3.5%
5.1%
3.7%
1.8%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Nõmme United is 1.12 points worse than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United is 0.50 goals worse than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Nõmme United is 0.62 goals worse than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.57
2.27
0.73
1.47
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.86
0.57
1.91
0.91
1.80
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
4.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.79
0.93
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.67
0.60
1.60
0.29
1.71
vs Similar (18)
1.83
1.11
2.44
0.56
1.22
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.57
1.93
0.20
1.33
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.67
0.48
1.64
0.27
1.70
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
3.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.36
0.43
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.08
0.20
0.40
0.29
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.56
0.78
2.00
0.44
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
78.7%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.43
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
+12.1%
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
72.4%
1.34
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
+3.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Nõmme United and Tammeka have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Nõmme United and Tammeka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Nõmme United and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Nõmme United and Tammeka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva