This match between Nõmme United and Trans Narva in the Estonia: Meistriliiga is finely balanced, with Nõmme United's recent form taking a hit after two straight defeats, including a 0-5 loss to FC Levadia Tallinn. However, at home, they've been a force to be reckoned with, scoring an average of 4.71 goals and conceding just 0.43. Trans Narva, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring only 0.57 goals on average while conceding 2.29.
The model predicts a home win, with a 40% chance of Nõmme United taking the three points. The draw is a possibility at 26%, while Trans Narva's away win is estimated at 34%. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.7%.
The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Nõmme United to win at 40%. They also suggest Over 1.5 goals, which has a high probability of 83.2% and an edge of 1%. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came as Trans Narva stunned Nømme United with a 1-2 away win, extending their recent run of inconsistency. The pre-match favourite, a Home win, failed to materialise as the model's call was wrong. The model had predicted a Home win with a pre-match probability of 40%.
The model's selection, a Home win, was not the only one to fall short as the suggested picks also yielded some surprises. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 83.2%, but no other selection was settled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 46.3% · @ 1.94
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.04
SBO
2.00
Dafabet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.62
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Trans Narva win✓ Hit
34.2%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.11
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.26
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.63
0.83
3.75
0.75
3.50
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
3.44
1.06
3.60
0.90
3.17
1.33
vs Weaker (10)
5.00
0.50
4.60
0.60
5.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.67
2.07
1.67
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.08
0.83
2.17
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.43
3.00
1.50
0.17
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
@ 1.09+0.5%
Under 1.5
16.8%
@ 5.23-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
@ 1.41-3.6%
Under 2.5
39.1%
@ 2.56+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.67
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.56
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.6%
@ 2.06-6.0%
Under 3.5
61.4%
@ 1.66+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
@ 1.39-1.7%
No
36.2%
@ 2.64+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
William Hil
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
No
Betfair
2.80
William Hil
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Marathonbet
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.14+5.7%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.77+3.3%
1-2 ✓
8.0%@ 10.07+3.8%
2-2
6.6%@ 9.59+2.1%
1-0
6.0%@ 10.56+2.0%
2-0
5.8%@ 11.34+2.1%
0-1
5.4%@ 13.63+2.3%
0-0
5.4%@ 16.92+2.9%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
5.4%
4.9%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.0%
12%
8.0%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.7%
6.6%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.2%
4.8%
3.6%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.17
Nõmme United
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Laagri
1.00
Nõmme United and Trans Narva are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Kalju Nomme
2.33
Laagri
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Vaprus
1.67
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.25
Nõmme United
1.17
Kuressaare
1.14
Trans Narva
1.00
Nõmme United is 0.17 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.20
Paide
1.60
Laagri
1.67
Kuressaare
1.71
Vaprus
1.83
Trans Narva
2.14
Nõmme United
2.33
Tammeka
2.75
Nõmme United is 0.19 goals worse than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.40
2.00
0.56
1.86
0.21
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
2.00
0.62
2.00
0.80
2.00
0.33
vs Weaker (10)
2.40
0.10
2.40
0.20
2.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.00
0.17
1.50
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.86
1.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
+0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Laagri
Tammeka