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Nõmme United vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 02/09/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 3-2
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
50%
17%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme United return to their home ground after a win, while Vaprus arrive after a defeat, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model predicts a 50% chance of a home win, 17% for a draw and 33% for an away victory, making a Nõmme win the favourite. The expected total goals is 6.1, with the most likely total being 6+, a 56% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 3-2, with a 5.4% chance. Nõmme’s home form shows they average 2.91 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Vaprus, on the road, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (98.6% probability, edge 15%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.4%, edge 15%), Away over 0.5 goals (93.7%, edge 16%), Home or Away (83.4%, edge 9%), Home +2 handicap (80.2%, edge 8%) and Under 7.5 (73.4%). These picks reflect the model’s confidence in a robust attack from both sides and a high-scoring finish.

Results analysis

Nõmme United’s win extends their recent form, while Vaprus return from a defeat. The final score was 3-2, a home win that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 50% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 1.5 hit at 98.6%, Home over 0.5 goals at 96.4%, Away over 0.5 goals at 93.7%, Home or Away at 83.4%, Home +2 handicap at 80.2%, and Under 7.5 at 73.4%. All picks were settled, each hitting as forecasted. The outcome confirms the model’s accuracy across both the result and its supplementary selections.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win✓ Hit
50.2%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.18
Edge
+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Dafabet
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.58
Edge
-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Dafabet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Vaprus win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.67
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.79
Pinnacle
2.76
William Hil
2.75
BetVictor
2.75

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1213L32W21W120W12L05L01L20W14L12LH·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08H·LAA29/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.101.303.731.072.471.53
vs Stronger (5)1.002.001.000.001.002.50
vs Similar (21)2.951.292.911.363.001.20
vs Weaker (4)6.500.507.670.333.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W13L51W13L41W11D50W13L12L22DH·KUR26/06A·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.501.373.311.001.881.65
vs Stronger (18)1.941.672.141.431.821.82
vs Similar (12)3.330.924.670.502.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

14%28%42%56%0%01%14%29%313%416%556%6+
The model estimates around 6.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (56%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.6%
@ 1.09+15.1%
Under 1.5
1.4%
@ 5.55-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
94.1%
@ 1.41+29.1%
Under 2.5
5.9%
@ 2.62-29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.57
1xBet
2.56
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.6%
@ 2.03+40.5%
Under 3.5
14.4%
@ 1.67-40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.04
Under
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
90.5%
@ 1.37+23.4%
No
9.5%
@ 2.79-23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
No
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.78
Superbet
2.77
William Hil
2.75

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-2 ✓
5.4%@ 16.20+2.8%
3-3
4.9%@ 26.34+3.4%
2-2
4.9%@ 10.08+0.8%
2-3
4.5%@ 18.19+2.2%
4-2
4.4%@ 33.92+3.2%
4-3
4.1%@ 53.53+3.3%
3-1
3.9%@ 13.80+0.9%
2-1
3.5%@ 8.90-1.1%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
00.4%0.4%0.9%0.8%0.6%
10.6%2.3%2.9%2.7%1.9%
21.3%3.5%4.9%4.5%3.1%
31.4%3.9%5.4%4.9%3.4%
41.2%3.2%4.4%4.1%2.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Vaprus
2.40
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Nõmme United is 0.15 points worse than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Nõmme United is 2.85 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (2.75 vs 5.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Poseidon
2.33
FC Tallinn
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Nõmme United is 0.25 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United or Draw✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied 66.6% · @ 1.36
Edge
+0.2%
50%
17%
33%
covers Nõmme United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Nõmme United or Vaprus✓ Hit
83.4%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
+8.6%
50%
17%
33%
covers Nõmme United + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Draw or Vaprus✗ Miss
49.8%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.55
Edge
-8.8%
50%
17%
33%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.60
BetVictor
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
96.4%
@ 1.11+15.2%
Under
3.6%
@ 4.80-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
4.55
Nõmme United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
84.3%
@ 1.70+30.2%
Under
15.7%
@ 2.00-30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Under
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Pinnacle
2.01
Superbet
1.97
Nõmme United over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
64.3%
@ 3.12+35.2%
Under
35.7%
@ 1.28-35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Nõmme United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
42.2%
@ 7.70+30.3%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.04-30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Under
1xBet
1.04
Vaprus over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.7%
@ 1.17+16.1%
Under
6.3%
@ 4.05-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Vaprus over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.3%
@ 1.95+29.1%
Under
23.7%
@ 1.75-29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Vaprus over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
52.3%
@ 3.82+28.6%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.18-28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.95
1xBet
3.92
Superbet
3.60
Under
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Vaprus over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
30.1%
@ 8.30+19.0%
Under
69.9%
@ 1.03-19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Under
1xBet
1.03

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme United, so a minus line means Nõmme United give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, Nõmme United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United)Actual: Vaprus
Nõmme United -2
20.7%
@ 6.85+7.9%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 6.00-1.1%
Vaprus +2
65.7%
@ 1.21-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.85
Draw
Marathonbet
6.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.21
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United)Actual: Draw
Nõmme United -1
34.3%
@ 3.84+11.3%
Draw -1
16.0%
@ 4.21-5.0%
Vaprus +1
49.8%
@ 1.58-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.58
Draw
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United)Actual: Nõmme United
Nõmme United +1
66.9%
@ 1.33+2.1%
Draw +1
13.3%
@ 4.70-5.0%
Vaprus -1
19.8%
@ 5.10+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
5.10
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United)Actual: Nõmme United
Nõmme United +2
80.2%
@ 1.10+8.3%
Draw +2
9.5%
@ 5.05-6.2%
Vaprus -2
10.4%
@ 6.35-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Marathonbet
6.35

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L01L20W60W02L03L00D00D11D01LH·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08H·LAA29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.601.870.731.330.47
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.000.000.751.00
vs Similar (21)1.480.621.360.911.600.30
vs Weaker (4)3.500.254.330.331.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L31W02L11D10W30W02L02L11DH·KUR26/06A·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.802.000.691.060.88
vs Stronger (18)1.060.891.141.001.000.82
vs Similar (12)2.080.673.000.331.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.58
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Under
Betfair
1.73
SBO
1.68
Superbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
William Hil
4.20
Under
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.20
Under
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.78
Under
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D31W01L60W10W02L01L20W03L11DH·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08H·LAA29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.701.870.331.131.07
vs Stronger (5)0.401.201.000.000.251.50
vs Similar (21)1.480.671.550.451.400.90
vs Weaker (4)3.000.253.330.002.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L20W11D30W01L20W11D10W11DH·KUR26/06A·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.571.310.310.820.76
vs Stronger (18)0.890.781.000.430.821.00
vs Similar (12)1.250.251.670.170.830.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Under
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Under
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
Under
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.42
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Under
1xBet
1.03
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Under
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
Under
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Under
1xBet
1.01

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.598.6%1.09
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+15.1%✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals96.4%1.11
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
---+15.2%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals93.7%1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
---+16.1%✓ Hit
Home or Away83.4%1.21
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+8.6%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap80.2%1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
----+8.3%✓ Hit
Under 7.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
NU wins
0
Draws
3
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Vaprus · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24HNU Vs Vaprus0-2
13/07/24AVaprus Vs NU2-0
31/05/24HNU Vs Vaprus2-1
26/04/24AVaprus Vs NU2-1

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HNU Vs Laagri1-2
23/08/26APaide Vs NU4-1
19/08/26AHiiumaa Vs NU0-2
14/08/26HNU Vs Tammeka0-1
09/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs NU5-0
31/07/26HNU Vs Trans Narva1-2
23/07/26HNU Vs Raplamaa12-0
17/07/26AFlora Tallinn Vs NU1-2
11/07/26HNU Vs Kuressaare3-2
03/07/26HNU Vs Kalju Nomme1-3

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AKuressaare Vs VAP2-2
23/08/26HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
16/08/26AKalju Nomme Vs VAP3-1
12/08/26APhoenix Vs VAP0-5
02/08/26HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-1
21/07/26ATabasalu Ulasabat Vs VAP1-4
18/07/26ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1
11/07/26HVAP Vs Tammeka5-1
04/07/26APaide Vs VAP3-1
26/06/26HVAP Vs Kuressaare1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL2.26
HomeWWLLL2.28
AwayLWLWL2.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%76%72%
AVG goals4.224.523.92
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %76%80%72%
Over 3.5 %60%64%56%
Scored3.183.602.76
Conceded1.040.921.16
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.50
HomeWWWDL1.50
AwayLWWLD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%42%46%
AVG goals3.463.673.27
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %70%71%69%
Over 3.5 %40%33%46%
Scored2.082.381.81
Conceded1.381.291.46
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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