Nõmme United’s recent five-game slump of five losses is tempered by a prolific home attack, averaging 3.14 goals per match while conceding just 1.21 against similarly ranked sides. Vaprus, on the other hand, has struggled to score, netting only two goals per away game and conceding 1.25. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, most likely total 3, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. The favourite result is a home win, with a 42% chance, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 33%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.4%), Under 5.5 (87.8%), Over 1.5 (85.6%), Home +2 handicap (83.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.03
1.33
3.60
1.13
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
2.95
1.32
2.92
1.42
3.00
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
7.00
0.33
9.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.47
2.50
1.08
1.89
1.72
vs Stronger (18)
1.94
1.67
2.14
1.43
1.82
1.82
vs Similar (12)
2.42
1.17
3.00
0.60
2.00
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
1-0
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.5%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.5%
4.3%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.3%
11%
7.7%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.8%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.4%
5.2%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Nõmme United is 0.25 points worse than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United is 0.50 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Nõmme United is 0.62 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United or Draw
67.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
25%
33%
covers Nõmme United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United or Vaprus
75.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
25%
33%
covers Nõmme United + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vaprus
57.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme United, so a minus line means Nõmme United give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, Nõmme United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United -2
10.1%
Draw -2
13.0%
Vaprus +2
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United -1
23.2%
Draw -1
19.3%
Vaprus +1
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United +1
67.1%
Draw +1
16.7%
Vaprus -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United)
Nõmme United +2
83.8%
Draw +2
9.9%
Vaprus -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.60
1.87
0.73
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.92
1.60
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.42
0.75
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.89
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.82
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.92
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.73
0.40
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.68
1.42
0.50
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.08
0.33
0.83
0.72
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.78
1.00
0.43
0.82
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.25
1.20
0.20
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Nõmme United and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva