Barnsley are expected to secure a narrow victory against Northampton, with the away side's recent-form note of coming off a defeat adding to the narrative of this match. The model predicts an away win, with a 45% probability of this outcome, closely followed by a 28% draw probability and a 27% chance of a home win.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%. Northampton have struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.86 goals and conceding 1.86 per match against similar opponents, while Barnsley have managed 1.17 goals and conceded 1.75 when playing away against similar opposition.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.6% probability and Under 3.5 with a 71.1% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 45%.
Results analysis
Northampton's loss extends their run of consecutive defeats to six, with the 0-1 scoreline marking a second straight loss at home. The actual result was an away win, which was correctly predicted by the Pythia model. The model's call was correct, backing Barnsley to win away, with a pre-match probability of 45%. The model's selection, Barnsley's away win, was the favourite, and it paid off. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, was a miss, with a 76.6% pre-match probability, while Under 3.5 was a hit, with a 71.1% pre-match probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Northampton win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.04
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.81
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barnsley win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.06
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Northampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.90
1.07
1.64
0.75
2.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.00
0.75
1.75
1.00
2.17
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.85
1.20
1.60
0.60
2.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.83
1.53
1.67
1.20
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.50
-
-
1.50
3.50
vs Similar (28)
1.36
1.71
1.53
1.67
1.15
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.53-9.7%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 2.37+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-1 ✓
9.1%
0-2
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
Northampton goals ↓
Barnsley goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
9.1%
8.0%
4.1%
1.6%
1
6.5%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.5%
6.9%
5.4%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Northampton goals (down), columns = Barnsley goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln
2.24
Cardiff
1.98
Bolton
1.71
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter
1.07
Port Vale
0.91
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.76
Northampton is 0.52 points worse than Barnsley in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cardiff
1.96
Lincoln
1.93
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Bolton
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Exeter
1.13
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Stevenage
1.02
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.85
Port Vale
0.78
Northampton is 0.63 goals worse than Barnsley in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln
0.89
Stevenage
1.02
Bolton
1.08
Mansfield
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Luton
1.22
Wigan
1.26
Wycombe
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Port Vale
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
Rotherham
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Northampton
1.61
Northampton is 0.02 goals worse than Barnsley in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Cardiff
63%
Bolton
59%
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Exeter
51%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Port Vale
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Rotherham
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Northampton
45%
Lincoln
42%
Northampton is 7.6 percentage points worse than Barnsley in terms of average possession (45% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Northampton
For 4.4 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnsley
For 4.8 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 8.2 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.5
10.5
3.5
4.0
3.0
22.3
22.8
21.8
vs Stronger (17)
10.7
11.2
10.2
4.1
4.4
3.8
21.5
22.5
20.6
vs Similar (33)
9.6
8.6
10.6
3.2
3.8
2.5
22.7
22.9
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
54%
64%
46%
62%
31%
57%
67%
48%
% under line
41%
46%
36%
54%
38%
69%
43%
33%
52%
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.8
11.6
3.4
3.7
3.1
21.1
22.6
19.5
vs Stronger (5)
10.2
6.5
12.7
3.0
4.0
2.3
22.4
29.5
17.7
vs Similar (43)
10.8
10.2
11.4
3.6
4.0
3.2
21.0
22.2
19.7
vs Weaker (2)
7.0
7.0
-
0.5
0.5
-
19.0
19.0
-
% over line
53%
48%
58%
48%
62%
33%
45%
60%
29%
% under line
47%
52%
42%
52%
38%
67%
55%
40%
71%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.3
Port Vale
10.7
Barnsley
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Burton
10.5
Cardiff
10.4
Bolton
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Blackpool
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Northampton
10.0
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Rotherham
9.5
Reading
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Stevenage
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Bradford
4.4
Peterboro
4.4
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Stevenage
3.7
Luton
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Reading
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Stockport
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Exeter
3.4
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.9
Huddersfield
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Plymouth
24.1
Rotherham
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Blackpool
23.7
Luton
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Doncaster
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Leyton Orient
22.9
Lincoln
22.8
Reading
22.5
Bolton
22.5
Mansfield
22.4
Northampton
22.3
Burton
22.0
Exeter
21.8
Stockport
21.7
Wycombe
21.6
Port Vale
21.5
Barnsley
21.0
Cardiff
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.3%
Under 9.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
41.6%
Under 21.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.43
0.79
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.25
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.95
0.50
0.80
0.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.75
0.87
0.80
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.64
0.86
0.44
1.06
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.90
0.70
0.80
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.67
0.87
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.96
0.67
0.87
0.69
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnsley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (25)
€31m
LUT (28)
€29m
HUD (27)
€16m
BOL (24)
€14m
LO (28)
€13m
STO (27)
€13m
PLY (27)
€12m
BLA (23)
€12m
REA (26)
€11m
LIN (27)
€10m
WYC (25)
€10m
STE (25)
€9m
WIG (27)
€9m
PV (31)
€8m
ROT (28)
€8m
PET (26)
€8m
BUR (27)
€8m
BRA (23)
€7m
BAR (20)
€7m
DON (27)
€7m
MAN (27)
€6m
AW (23)
€5m
EXE (22)
€5m
NOR (23)
€4m
Northampton's squad is €3m less valuable than Barnsley's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUT (13)
€16m
CAR (10)
€13m
BOL (9)
€8m
STO (8)
€6m
LO (7)
€6m
HUD (9)
€5m
BLA (8)
€4m
LIN (9)
€4m
PLY (8)
€4m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WYC (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
AW (10)
€2m
REA (6)
€2m
MAN (9)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
DON (7)
€2m
EXE (7)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€1m
NOR (7)
€1m
Northampton and Barnsley have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (4)
€7m
LUT (7)
€5m
HUD (5)
€4m
REA (7)
€4m
LO (8)
€3m
BRA (6)
€3m
PLY (7)
€3m
ROT (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
LIN (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
BOL (4)
€2m
BLA (5)
€2m
DON (9)
€2m
PV (9)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
STO (5)
€2m
MAN (5)
€2m
PET (5)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
NOR (6)
€1m
EXE (6)
€1m
AW (6)
€1m
Northampton and Barnsley have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (11)
€12m
LUT (8)
€8m
HUD (13)
€7m
BLA (10)
€6m
PLY (12)
€6m
STO (14)
€5m
PV (15)
€5m
REA (13)
€5m
WYC (12)
€4m
BUR (13)
€4m
LO (13)
€4m
LIN (12)
€4m
BOL (11)
€4m
BAR (10)
€4m
STE (10)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
ROT (11)
€3m
PET (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€2m
MAN (13)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
EXE (9)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
Northampton's defence is €2m less valuable than Barnsley's (€2m vs €4m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Wigan
Burton
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Port Vale
Rotherham