PythiaFootballBETA
Plymouth's recent 2-game winning run against Northampton sets the stage for this match, with the away side looking to capitalize on their recent form. The model predicts an away win, with a 51% probability of Plymouth securing the three points.
The expected number of goals is 2.8, suggesting a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability. Northampton has struggled at home, scoring 1.17 goals on average against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.5 goals. Plymouth, on the other hand, has averaged 1.5 goals away against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.0 goal.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 51% probability. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goal selection, with a 78.8% probability. This selection has a high edge, with an edge percentage of 78.8%. The home win percentage is 23%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 51%.
Northampton's dismal run continued with their sixth consecutive loss, as they fell to Plymouth's 2-3 win at home. The away team's recent form, however, has been more encouraging, with a 2-game winning streak. The model's selection, an Away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's call was vindicated as Plymouth secured the win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 78.8%. The final score of 2-3 was one of the most likely outcomes, with a 9.7% probability.
Northampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.90 | 0.93 | 1.64 | 0.75 | 2.12 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.90 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 2.10 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Plymouth| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 2.07 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.78 | 1.07 | 1.57 | 1.43 | 2.00 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Plymouth goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 12% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
NorthamptonPlymouthNorthampton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.9 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 11.0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 21.6 | 22.5 | 20.8 |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 59% | 52% | 67% | 44% | 60% | 28% | 57% | 64% | 50% |
| % under line | 41% | 48% | 33% | 56% | 40% | 72% | 43% | 36% | 50% |
Plymouth| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 9.5 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 22.5 | 24.0 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (43) | 11.4 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 24.3 | 23.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 12.0 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 24.6 | 25.0 | 24.0 |
| % over line | 73% | 64% | 83% | 76% | 80% | 72% | 67% | 60% | 75% |
| % under line | 27% | 36% | 17% | 24% | 20% | 28% | 33% | 40% | 25% |
Northampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.93 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.30 | 0.90 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.40 | 0.95 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Plymouth| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 1.07 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.85 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.08 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Northampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.44 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.60 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Plymouth| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.93 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 0.92 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/03/21 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/10/20 | A | 2-1 |
Northampton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
Plymouth| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | 103 | 67% | 2.2 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42% |
| 2 |  Cardiff | 46 | 91 | 59% | 2.0 | 90 | 50 | +40 | 3.0 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.5 | 52% | 20.6 | 30% | 31 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 3 |  Bolton | 49 | 84 | 45% | 1.7 | 76 | 53 | +23 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 27% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 49% | 22.4 | 57% | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 |  Stockport | 49 | 83 | 49% | 1.7 | 75 | 62 | +13 | 2.8 | 80% | 59% | 24% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.4 | 51% | 21.2 | 45% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 5 |  Bradford | 48 | 77 | 46% | 1.6 | 58 | 53 | +5 | 2.3 | 69% | 50% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.4 | 67% | 25.2 | 77% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 6 |  Stevenage | 48 | 75 | 44% | 1.6 | 49 | 49 | +0 | 2.0 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 8.7 | 46% | 3.8 | 54% | 24.5 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 7 |  Luton | 46 | 74 | 46% | 1.6 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 2.7 | 76% | 54% | 28% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 54% | 24.0 | 63% | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 8 | Plymouth | 46 | 73 | 48% | 1.6 | 75 | 63 | +12 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 11.3 | 74% | 5.2 | 80% | 24.5 | 67% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | 67 | 39% | 1.5 | 74 | 64 | +10 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 43% | 10.5 | 59% | 4.1 | 61% | 25.0 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 10 |  Mansfield | 46 | 65 | 35% | 1.4 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.6 | 46% | 22.4 | 57% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | 63 | 37% | 1.4 | 69 | 58 | +11 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 28% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.5 | 41% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | 63 | 35% | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 48% | 26% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 2.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 9.9 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 24.0 | 76% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 2.6 | 72% | 50% | 22% | 9.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 52% | 23.3 | 63% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 68 | 73 | -5 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 46% | 10.9 | 57% | 3.5 | 50% | 21.0 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | 56 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 2.3 | 70% | 35% | 17% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.1 | 39% | 23.6 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 17 |  Burton | 46 | 54 | 28% | 1.2 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 2.4 | 70% | 50% | 22% | 10.4 | 52% | 3.6 | 52% | 22.0 | 41% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 18 |  Peterboro | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 26% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 72 | -21 | 2.7 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.2 | 46% | 23.2 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 33% | 9.6 | 52% | 4.1 | 61% | 23.0 | 65% | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 21 |  Exeter | 46 | 49 | 26% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 24% | 10.1 | 54% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.0 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 22 |  Port Vale | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 2.1 | 54% | 39% | 22% | 10.2 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 21.3 | 48% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 24% | 9.8 | 52% | 4.2 | 65% | 23.9 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 24 | Northampton | 46 | 35 | 20% | 0.8 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 2.5 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.9 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 45% |