The contest between Nottingham Forest and Tottenham is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 35% and 37% respectively, while a draw is 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, but the most likely total is two, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Nottingham Forest, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.08 goals scored and 0.85 conceded. Tottenham, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded versus similar strength teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (96.6% with a 4% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.6% with a 5% edge). The match remains finely balanced, with both sides showing recent form that could swing the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nottingham Forest win
35.2%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.40
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.46
Unibet
2.45
Dafabet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.39
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.58
Pinnacle
3.54
Marathonbet
3.52
Dafabet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Tottenham win
36.9%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.90
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
2.99
Pinnacle
2.98
Betano
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nottingham Forest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
0.94
0.75
1.93
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.00
0.33
0.33
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.09
1.08
0.85
1.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.44
1.81
1.07
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.00
1.50
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.68
1.15
1.69
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
@ 1.28+4.2%
Under 1.5
22.6%
@ 3.51-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.77
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Betano
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.92+2.5%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.89-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
SBO
1.99
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 3.21+0.7%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.33-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.33
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.69+2.0%
No
42.8%
@ 2.08-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.14+5.8%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.90+3.8%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.72+2.9%
0-1
7.6%@ 9.03+2.6%
0-0
7.5%@ 10.37+3.1%
1-0
7.4%@ 8.08+1.7%
0-2
6.2%@ 14.24+3.0%
2-0
5.9%@ 11.73+1.9%
Nottingham Forest goals ↓
Tottenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.6%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.4%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.2%
5.7%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nottingham Forest goals (down), columns = Tottenham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Nottingham Forest is 0.08 points better than Tottenham in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham are level in goals scored per game (both 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Nottingham Forest is 0.16 goals better than Tottenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Nottingham Forest is 4.0 percentage points worse than Tottenham in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nottingham Forest
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tottenham
For 7.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nottingham Forest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.2
3.5
2.9
4.1
23.4
22.4
24.5
vs Stronger (11)
9.6
9.8
9.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
21.9
24.3
19.0
vs Similar (39)
9.7
8.8
10.4
3.5
2.7
4.2
23.8
21.7
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
48%
52%
48%
36%
60%
64%
56%
72%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
52%
64%
40%
36%
44%
28%
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.4
8.6
4.5
5.0
4.0
22.9
23.0
22.8
vs Stronger (4)
7.2
7.0
7.5
3.8
4.5
3.0
26.8
27.5
26.0
vs Similar (41)
10.0
11.1
8.9
4.8
5.4
4.1
23.0
23.1
22.8
vs Weaker (5)
12.6
16.3
7.0
3.4
3.0
4.0
19.2
19.0
19.5
% over line
50%
62%
38%
66%
73%
58%
62%
58%
67%
% under line
50%
38%
62%
34%
27%
42%
38%
42%
33%
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.5%
@ 1.62-10.9%
Under 9.5
53.5%
@ 2.18+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Under
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Unibet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.2%
@ 1.80-1.3%
Under 3.5
49.8%
@ 1.92+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.90
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.0%
Under 21.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nottingham Forest or Draw
66.2%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.40
Edge
-1.0%
35%
28%
37%
covers Nottingham Forest + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Nottingham Forest or Tottenham
69.5%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.30
Edge
-2.9%
35%
28%
37%
covers Nottingham Forest + Tottenham
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Tottenham
64.3%
Avg Implied 60.4% · @ 1.56
Edge
+3.9%
35%
28%
37%
covers Draw + Tottenham
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
@ 1.25-4.5%
Under
30.0%
@ 3.63+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5
Over
33.8%
@ 2.24-8.0%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.61+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.22
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
@ 5.01-6.5%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.15+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Nottingham Forest over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
@ 11.61-4.8%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Tottenham over/under 0.5
Over
68.8%
@ 1.32-1.9%
Under
31.2%
@ 3.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.36
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betano
3.15
Tottenham over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
@ 2.57-4.0%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.47+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
1xBet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Tottenham over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
@ 6.14-3.9%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.10+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Unibet
6.10
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Tottenham over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
@ 14.88-3.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nottingham Forest, so a minus line means Nottingham Forest give that many goals of a start and Tottenham receive them. At -1, Nottingham Forest must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nottingham Forest win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nottingham Forest)
Nottingham Forest -2
5.2%
@ 9.72-3.9%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 6.24-3.6%
Tottenham +2
84.2%
@ 1.15+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Nottingham Forest)
Nottingham Forest -1
15.8%
@ 4.62-3.7%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 4.00-2.5%
Tottenham +1
64.3%
@ 1.55+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Nottingham Forest)
Nottingham Forest +1
66.2%
@ 1.39+1.5%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 4.48-0.9%
Tottenham -1
14.5%
@ 5.99-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Nottingham Forest)
Nottingham Forest +2
85.5%
@ 1.10+4.5%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 7.45-2.1%
Tottenham -2
4.7%
@ 12.56-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nottingham Forest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.38
0.25
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.29
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.43
0.38
0.31
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.62
0.75
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.88
0.54
0.69
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.39-1.4%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.89+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
1xBet
2.93
Marathonbet
2.93
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.2%
@ 2.81-2.1%
Under 1.5
68.8%
@ 1.41+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.90
William Hil
2.88
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Under
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 7.12-2.4%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.08+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.0%
@ 2.03-0.8%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.72+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Under
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.70
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.4%
@ 6.20-2.5%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.09+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
Unibet
6.00
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
@ 11.75-5.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Tottenham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
@ 2.19-5.1%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.62+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Tottenham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
@ 7.20-4.6%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.06+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Tottenham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 12.50-6.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nottingham Forest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.65
0.69
0.54
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.81
1.06
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.80
0.62
1.00
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.8%
@ 1.23-0.2%
Under 0.5
24.2%
@ 3.90+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Betano
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.2%
@ 2.07-4.1%
Under 1.5
58.8%
@ 1.72+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 4.43-6.2%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.19+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.70
William Hil
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.4%
@ 1.70+1.8%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.05-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.3%
@ 4.29-3.3%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.18+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
@ 9.50-5.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Tottenham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.2%
@ 1.81-6.2%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.91+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Tottenham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
@ 5.05-6.5%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.14+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Tottenham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
@ 10.50-6.8%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.03+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+4.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+4.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+4.6%
Under 4.5
90.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
+5.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
+6.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+6.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.5%
Home +2 handicap
85.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+4.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+6.2%
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+7.5%
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+8.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+3.3%
Over 1.5
77.4%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+4.2%
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.45
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
+12.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
-0.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
-
-
+1.5%
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
-0.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nottingham Forest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ola Aina67%
Jair67%
Xaver Schlager33%
Igor Jesus33%
Murillo33%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Tottenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Solanke33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Mikey Moore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rodrigo Bentancur33%
Archie Gray33%
Mateus Fernandes33%
Mikey Moore33%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathys Tel33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Nottingham Forest's squad is €370m less valuable than Tottenham's (€551m vs €920m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Nottingham Forest's attack is €12m more valuable than Tottenham's (€263m vs €250m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Nottingham Forest's midfield is €230m less valuable than Tottenham's (€52m vs €282m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Nottingham Forest's defence is €152m less valuable than Tottenham's (€236m vs €388m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa