Notts County are tipped to win, with a 47 % chance of a home victory, a 29 % draw probability and a 25 % chance of a Burton win. The model expects an average of 2.5 goals, most likely a 2-goal total at 27 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6 % chance. Notts County, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Burton, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0 % (edge 4 %), Under 6.5 at 98.6 % (edge 3 %), Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1 % (edge 5 %), Under 5.5 at 95.9 % (edge 4 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0 % (edge 1 %), Home under 3.5 goals at 93.7 % (edge 2 %), and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.3 % (edge 2 %). Both sides have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, with Notts County drawing 2-2 with Luton and Burton winning 2-1 over Leicester.
Results analysis
Notts County’s unbeaten run in the last five games, capped by a 2-1 win over Burton, kept the model’s home-win prediction on target. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s pre-match pick was Home win with a 46% probability, and it proved correct. Every suggested selection also hit: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%), Under 5.5 (96.0%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%). The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate across the board.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Notts County win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.22
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.31
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.32
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.59
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Burton win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.13
Edge
-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Marathonbet
3.70
Unibet
3.15
Dafabet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Notts County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.07
1.80
0.93
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
0.83
2.67
0.83
1.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.20
1.07
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.56
1.50
1.00
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.10
1.09
1.09
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.30+0.4%
Under 1.5
28.0%
@ 3.26-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
@ 1.97-2.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
@ 1.80+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 3.38-3.9%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.29+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.46
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.75-2.6%
No
49.7%
@ 1.97+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Unibet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
No
William Hil
2.05
Betfair
2.05
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.04+6.4%
1-0
10.9%@ 7.27+4.8%
0-0
9.7%@ 8.93+4.7%
2-1 ✓
9.1%@ 8.49+3.8%
2-0
8.8%@ 10.34+4.5%
0-1
7.4%@ 8.87+2.4%
1-2
6.4%@ 10.16+2.0%
2-2
4.6%@ 12.92+1.2%
Notts County goals ↓
Burton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.4%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.1%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Notts County goals (down), columns = Burton goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Notts County is 0.00 points worse than Burton in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Notts County is 0.03 goals better than Burton in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Notts County is 0.24 goals worse than Burton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Notts County
For 3.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
For 4.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.8
4.4
4.2
4.6
24.7
24.6
24.7
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
8.0
7.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (27)
8.7
8.0
9.3
4.6
4.0
5.1
26.2
26.1
26.4
vs Weaker (21)
10.5
10.2
10.8
4.4
4.6
4.1
22.7
22.8
22.5
% over line
48%
44%
52%
66%
64%
68%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
52%
56%
48%
34%
36%
32%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.4
10.2
3.4
3.1
3.8
22.3
22.0
22.6
vs Stronger (15)
10.1
10.9
9.2
3.4
2.3
5.0
22.1
21.2
23.3
vs Similar (34)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.2
22.4
22.1
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
-
8.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
49%
52%
46%
48%
42%
54%
45%
44%
46%
% under line
51%
48%
54%
52%
58%
46%
55%
56%
54%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
10.9
Wigan
10.6
Bromley
10.4
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Stockport
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.7
Bradford
24.6
Stevenage
24.6
Plymouth
24.5
Huddersfield
24.2
Luton
23.8
Peterboro
23.7
Leyton Orient
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Doncaster
22.5
Reading
22.4
Leicester
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Burton
22.2
Sheffield Weds
21.9
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
20.9
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.0%
@ 2.38+11.3%
Under 9.5
50.0%
@ 1.50-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.41
Marathonbet
2.31
Unibet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.9%
Under 21.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Notts County or Draw✓ Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.34
Edge
+4.9%
46%
29%
26%
covers Notts County + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Notts County or Burton✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.2%
46%
29%
26%
covers Notts County + Burton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Draw or Burton✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.60
Edge
-3.7%
46%
29%
26%
covers Draw + Burton
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Notts County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.5%
@ 1.25+2.0%
Under
23.5%
@ 3.64-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.40
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Notts County over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.4%
@ 2.21+0.1%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.62-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Notts County over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 4.91-1.2%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.15+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Notts County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 12.00-2.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Burton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.2%
@ 1.38-3.3%
Under
35.8%
@ 2.86+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Betano
2.92
Burton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
@ 2.86-5.2%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.38+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.33
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
2.82
Unibet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Burton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 6.92-4.9%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.08+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.85
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Burton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.75-3.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Notts County, so a minus line means Notts County give that many goals of a start and Burton receive them. At -1, Notts County must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Notts County win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Notts County)Actual: Burton
Notts County -2
8.9%
@ 9.22-0.8%
Draw -2
14.1%
@ 6.13-0.5%
Burton +2
77.0%
@ 1.18+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Away
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Notts County)Actual: Draw
Notts County -1
23.0%
@ 4.14+1.4%
Draw -1
22.5%
@ 3.76-1.2%
Burton +1
54.5%
@ 1.64-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.78
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Notts County)Actual: Notts County
Notts County +1
74.5%
@ 1.33+7.5%
Draw +1
15.6%
@ 4.61-3.7%
Burton -1
9.9%
@ 6.53-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Notts County)Actual: Notts County
Notts County +2
90.1%
@ 1.09+8.3%
Draw +2
7.1%
@ 7.86-4.3%
Burton -2
2.8%
@ 13.25-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
7.90
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.00
0.47
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.57
0.36
0.55
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.2%
@ 1.40+1.9%
Under 0.5
31.8%
@ 2.75-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.6%
@ 2.85-1.0%
Under 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.38+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.88
Under
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.0%
@ 7.33-2.7%
Under 2.5
90.0%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 1.97-2.0%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.76+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Unibet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.81
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.91-2.4%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.10+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Marathonbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 17.58-2.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.4%
@ 2.32-2.6%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.55+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Marathonbet
2.43
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.26
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 7.66-3.7%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 23.17-1.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.73
0.55
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.25+1.2%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 3.66-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
William Hil
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.2%
@ 2.17-0.9%
Under 1.5
57.8%
@ 1.64+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
William Hil
2.15
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
William Hil
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 4.67+0.1%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.0%
@ 1.71-0.4%
Under
46.0%
@ 2.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.7%
@ 4.26-3.0%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.18+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.15
Marathonbet
3.84
Under
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 11.17-3.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.8%
@ 1.91-0.8%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.80+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.68
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 5.63+0.1%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.11-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 15.33-2.6%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.5%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.2%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.0%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.3%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.25
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.5%
1.34
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.4%
1.17
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.0%
1.30
Betano
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.1%
1.29
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
-1.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Notts County
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Roberts50%
Oliver Cooper50%
Luka Smyth33%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
H. Mustapha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Lipsiuc50%
Luka Smyth33%
H. Mustapha33%
J. Gibbons25%
J. Bedeau25%
Oliver Cooper25%
J. Evans25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Tsaroulla75%
C. Roberts25%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Luka Smyth0%
H. Mustapha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Smyth67%
H. Mustapha33%
Conor Grant25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Oliver Cooper0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Burton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Notts County's squad is €1m more valuable than Burton's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Notts County's attack is €1m more valuable than Burton's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Notts County and Burton have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Notts County and Burton have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe