Novi Pazar are the clear favourite, with a 72 % chance of victory, a 20 % chance of a draw and only a 7 % chance of a Macva win. The model’s pick is a home win, driven by Novi Pazar’s strong home form - averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similar opposition - while Macva’s away record is weak, scoring only 0.58 and conceding 0.83. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Novi Pazar, with a 16.4 % probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.8 %), Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 % with a 7 % edge), Under 6.5 (98.6 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (98.5 % with a 10 % edge), Home +2 handicap (98.3 % with an 8 % edge) and Under 5.5 (95.8 % with a 5 % edge). The recent form shows Novi Pazar coming off a defeat, while Macva arrive after a win.
Results analysis
The draw at Novi Pazar surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite - Home win - was wrong. The final score of 1-1 left both sides level, a result that matched the model’s prediction of a draw. The model had given the home side a 72% chance of victory, but that call proved incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 98.5%, Home +2 handicap hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.3%, and Under 5.5 hit at 95.8%. The match saw both teams come off a 1-1 draw, with Novi Pazar’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw” and Macva’s also “coming off a draw.”
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Novi Pazar win✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.57
Edge
+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Draw✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.76
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.84
Macva win✗ Miss
7.4%
Avg Implied 18.5% · @ 4.90
Edge
-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.10
1xBet
5.06
Betfair
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Novi Pazar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.57
1.50
0.69
1.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.50
2.00
3.00
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.21
1.54
1.38
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.90
1.60
0.60
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.64
1.62
0.46
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Novi Pazar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
@ 1.23-2.1%
Under 1.5
27.8%
@ 3.56+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 1.77-6.3%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.93+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
@ 2.88-7.5%
Under 3.5
75.7%
@ 1.34+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.0%
@ 1.78-16.3%
No
65.0%
@ 1.88+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
No
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Betfair
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
16.4%@ 7.33+10.3%
1-0
15.5%@ 6.72+8.9%
3-0
10.9%@ 11.59+7.1%
1-1 ✓
9.1%@ 6.93+2.6%
0-0
9.0%@ 10.14+4.6%
2-1
8.2%@ 7.53+2.3%
3-1
5.5%@ 11.81+1.7%
4-0
5.5%@ 23.22+3.6%
Novi Pazar goals ↓
Macva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
16%
9.1%
2.1%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
8.2%
2.1%
0.3%
0.0%
3
11%
5.5%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
4
5.5%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Novi Pazar goals (down), columns = Macva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
Železničar Pančevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
Novi Pazar is 0.14 points better than Macva in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
Železničar Pančevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Macva
0.71
Novi Pazar
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
Novi Pazar and Macva are level in goals scored per game (both 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
Novi Pazar is 0.71 goals better than Macva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
Železničar Pančevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
Novi Pazar is 11.3 percentage points better than Macva in terms of average possession (49% vs 38%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Novi Pazar
For 4.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Macva
For 2.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Novi Pazar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.9
9.2
4.4
4.4
4.3
26.7
26.6
26.9
vs Stronger (11)
7.7
7.2
8.0
3.7
3.6
3.8
26.1
25.2
26.8
vs Similar (39)
9.3
9.2
9.4
4.6
4.6
4.5
26.9
26.8
26.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
43%
36%
70%
75%
65%
85%
83%
88%
% under line
60%
57%
64%
30%
25%
35%
15%
17%
12%
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
8.0
7.7
0.7
0.9
0.5
30.3
32.3
28.3
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
7.0
8.5
7.7
12.0
5.5
26.7
31.0
24.5
vs Similar (45)
7.7
8.5
6.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
34.0
33.0
36.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
17%
33%
0%
6%
8%
4%
83%
100%
67%
% under line
83%
67%
100%
94%
92%
96%
17%
0%
33%
This opponent (Novi Pazar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.8
Mladost Lucani
9.5
FK Partizan
9.2
Vojvodina
9.1
Radnicki 1923
9.1
Novi Pazar
9.1
Radnik Surdulica
8.9
Cukaricki
8.9
OFK Beograd
8.8
IMT Novi Beograd
8.5
Zemun
8.5
Radnicki NIS
8.4
Železničar Pančevo
8.4
Macva
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Macva
6.2
Zemun
5.8
Radnicki 1923
5.5
Radnik Surdulica
5.3
Radnicki NIS
5.1
Vojvodina
5.0
OFK Beograd
4.9
Cukaricki
4.8
FK Partizan
4.7
Novi Pazar
4.7
IMT Novi Beograd
4.5
Železničar Pančevo
4.5
Mladost Lucani
4.2
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radnik Surdulica
30.4
Macva
30.3
Radnicki 1923
30.2
IMT Novi Beograd
29.8
Radnicki NIS
29.3
OFK Beograd
29.1
Cukaricki
28.7
Železničar Pančevo
27.8
Vojvodina
27.0
Novi Pazar
26.9
Zemun
26.5
FK Partizan
25.9
Mladost Lucani
25.6
FK Crvena Zvezda
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.97
1xBet
2.92
Superbet
2.57
Under
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Novi Pazar or Draw✓ Hit
92.6%
Avg Implied 81.2% · @ 1.13
Edge
+11.4%
72%
20%
7%
covers Novi Pazar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Novi Pazar or Macva✗ Miss
79.6%
Avg Implied 76.9% · @ 1.19
Edge
+2.7%
72%
20%
7%
covers Novi Pazar + Macva
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Draw or Macva✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.19
Edge
-14.1%
72%
20%
7%
covers Draw + Macva
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.20
1xBet
2.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Novi Pazar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.5%
@ 1.12+4.9%
Under
13.5%
@ 4.96-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.15
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Novi Pazar over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.4%
@ 1.66+4.3%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.04-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Novi Pazar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.4%
@ 2.96+1.6%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.32-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Novi Pazar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.3%
@ 6.17-0.7%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Bet365
6.00
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Macva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
39.5%
@ 1.55-19.4%
Under
60.5%
@ 2.22+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Under
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Macva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 3.52-16.8%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.23+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Macva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 9.23-8.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.03+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.80
Superbet
9.70
Bet365
8.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Macva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.2%
@ 23.50-99.8%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Bet365
17.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Novi Pazar, so a minus line means Novi Pazar give that many goals of a start and Macva receive them. At -1, Novi Pazar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Novi Pazar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Novi Pazar)Actual: Macva
Novi Pazar -2
24.4%
@ 4.81+6.2%
Draw -2
22.6%
@ 4.35+2.5%
Macva +2
53.0%
@ 1.41-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.85
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Unibet
3.65
Away
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Handicap -1 (Novi Pazar)Actual: Macva
Novi Pazar -1
47.0%
@ 2.54+12.6%
Draw -1
25.3%
@ 3.39-0.5%
Macva +1
27.8%
@ 2.19-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.56
Bet365
2.50
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
10Bet
3.40
Away
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Handicap +1 (Novi Pazar)Actual: Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar +1
92.6%
@ 1.11+16.4%
Draw +1
5.7%
@ 5.83-8.8%
Macva -1
1.7%
@ 9.05-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Novi Pazar)Actual: Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar +2
98.3%
@ 1.03+7.1%
Draw +2
1.4%
@ 17.00-4.1%
Macva -2
0.3%
@ 29.00-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Novi Pazar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
1.00
0.64
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.62
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.87
0.27
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.32
0.92
0.23
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Novi Pazar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.33+5.4%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 2.95-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
1xBet
2.96
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.3%
@ 2.54+2.2%
Under 1.5
61.7%
@ 1.43-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 5.88-0.7%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Novi Pazar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
62.6%
@ 1.65+6.6%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.10-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Novi Pazar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.8%
@ 4.16-2.4%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.18+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Novi Pazar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 10.67-3.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Macva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.2%
@ 2.67-2.4%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.42+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.67
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.67
10Bet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Macva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.60-2.7%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Macva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 45.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Novi Pazar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.57
0.86
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.71
0.54
0.77
0.27
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.32
0.69
0.23
0.17
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Novi Pazar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.1%
@ 1.20+6.1%
Under 0.5
16.9%
@ 4.01-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.98
10Bet
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.3%
@ 1.99+2.6%
Under 1.5
50.7%
@ 1.74-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.8%
@ 4.08+0.2%
Under 2.5
77.2%
@ 1.19-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Novi Pazar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
68.3%
@ 1.45+4.3%
Under
31.7%
@ 2.57-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Novi Pazar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.4%
@ 3.08+0.4%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.32-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Novi Pazar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 7.58-1.9%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.05+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
1xBet
7.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Macva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.7%
@ 2.22+1.0%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.59-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.55
Macva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 7.32-2.8%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Macva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 19.12-3.3%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
92.6%
1.13
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+16.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
90.9%
1.23
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
+16.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.09
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.6%
1.19
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.7%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.33
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home win
72.2%
1.57
10Bet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
+14.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.2%
1.23
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
-2.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Novi Pazar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vieiri Kotzebue25%
Fejsal Mulić20%
Kaheim Dixon20%
Ivan Davidović14%
Dominic Sadi14%
Tomislav Dadić0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Jovan Marinković0%
Jonny0%
Bojan Adžić0%
Dimitrije Janković0%
Papa Amady Gadio0%
Mihajlo Petrović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Bogdan Matijašević0%
Skima Togbe0%
Ahmed Hadzimujovic0%
Miloje Preković0%
Veljko Mirosavić0%
Dauda Agwom0%
Nikola Stanković0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Papa Amady Gadio40%
Nikola Skrobonja33%
Jovan Marinković29%
Ahmed Hadzimujovic29%
Dauda Agwom29%
Skima Togbe25%
Tomislav Dadić20%
Fejsal Mulić20%
Kaheim Dixon20%
Nikola Stanković20%
Jonny17%
Aleksandar Miljković14%
Ivan Davidović14%
Vieiri Kotzebue0%
Dominic Sadi0%
Bojan Adžić0%
Dimitrije Janković0%
Mihajlo Petrović0%
Bogdan Matijašević0%
Miloje Preković0%
Veljko Mirosavić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fejsal Mulić20%
Kaheim Dixon20%
Dominic Sadi14%
Dauda Agwom14%
Tomislav Dadić0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Jovan Marinković0%
Jonny0%
Vieiri Kotzebue0%
Ivan Davidović0%
Bojan Adžić0%
Dimitrije Janković0%
Papa Amady Gadio0%
Mihajlo Petrović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Bogdan Matijašević0%
Skima Togbe0%
Ahmed Hadzimujovic0%
Miloje Preković0%
Veljko Mirosavić0%
Nikola Stanković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fejsal Mulić60%
Dominic Sadi29%
Jonny17%
Tomislav Dadić0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Jovan Marinković0%
Vieiri Kotzebue0%
Ivan Davidović0%
Bojan Adžić0%
Dimitrije Janković0%
Kaheim Dixon0%
Papa Amady Gadio0%
Mihajlo Petrović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Bogdan Matijašević0%
Skima Togbe0%
Ahmed Hadzimujovic0%
Miloje Preković0%
Veljko Mirosavić0%
Dauda Agwom0%
Nikola Stanković0%
Macva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Vidakov50%
Đorđe Đorđić17%
Boško Vraštanović0%
Igor Ristivojević0%
Kristijan Tojčić0%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Luka Pejović0%
Nemanja Stevanović0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Slobodan Sladojević0%
Sani Abdullahi0%
Vladimir Rakić0%
Darko Terzić0%
Vladimir Ilić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Ristivojević50%
Kristijan Tojčić50%
Sani Abdullahi50%
Milan Vidakov33%
Luka Pejović33%
Slobodan Sladojević33%
Nemanja Stevanović25%
Boško Vraštanović20%
Darko Terzić20%
Vladimir Ilić20%
Vladimir Rakić17%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Đorđe Đorđić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nemanja Stevanović25%
Slobodan Sladojević17%
Boško Vraštanović0%
Igor Ristivojević0%
Kristijan Tojčić0%
Milan Vidakov0%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Luka Pejović0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Sani Abdullahi0%
Vladimir Rakić0%
Darko Terzić0%
Đorđe Đorđić0%
Vladimir Ilić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Milan Vidakov33%
Boško Vraštanović0%
Igor Ristivojević0%
Kristijan Tojčić0%
Mitar Ergelaš0%
Luka Pejović0%
Nemanja Stevanović0%
Nikola Lainović0%
Slobodan Sladojević0%
Sani Abdullahi0%
Vladimir Rakić0%
Darko Terzić0%
Đorđe Đorđić0%
Vladimir Ilić0%
Kosta Rakonić0%
Nikša Delibašić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Novi Pazar's squad is €6m more valuable than Macva's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Novi Pazar and Macva have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Novi Pazar's midfield is €2m more valuable than Macva's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Novi Pazar's defence is €4m more valuable than Macva's (€5m vs €2m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
IMT Novi Beograd
Mladost Lucani
Radnicki 1923
Cukaricki
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
OFK Beograd
FK Partizan
Radnicki NIS
Zemun