PythiaFootballBETA
OFK Beograd comes into this match on the back of a draw, while Novi Pazar is looking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats. The away side's recent form is more encouraging, having drawn with Železničar Pančevo after a win. The model's pick is an away win, with a 41% probability, making it the favourite match result.
Novi Pazar's home form is concerning, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 3 conceded per match against stronger opponents. In contrast, OFK Beograd has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1 conceded per match away to weaker opponents. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely score being 1-1, albeit with a low 11.5% probability.
The model suggests two selections: Over 21.5 fouls, which it has hit, and Over 1.5, where it has a 10% edge. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 34%, 25%, and 41%, respectively.
The win extends Novi Pazar's run of poor form, with two consecutive defeats preceding this match. The final score was 1-4 in favour of OFK Beograd, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, an away win by OFK Beograd, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's call was vindicated as the favoured result landed.
The model's selection of an away win by OFK Beograd came in, while several other selections were also settled. Over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 88.5%, and Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 83.9%.
Novi Pazar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.37 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 2.29 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.00 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 0.50 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
OFK Beograd| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.08 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.08 | 0.62 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| OFK Beograd goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 11% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Novi PazarOFK BeogradNovi Pazar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 27.6 | 27.7 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 7.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 26.2 | 26.0 |
| vs Similar (28) | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 28.9 | 28.7 | 29.0 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 9.6 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 25.2 | 25.7 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 38% | 39% | 36% | 66% | 71% | 62% | 85% | 83% | 88% |
| % under line | 62% | 61% | 64% | 34% | 29% | 38% | 15% | 17% | 12% |
OFK Beograd| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 29.2 | 30.4 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 24.0 | 20.0 | 25.1 |
| vs Similar (22) | 8.6 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 29.2 | 30.7 | 27.5 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 31.7 | 31.8 | 31.6 |
| % over line | 36% | 38% | 33% | 60% | 69% | 50% | 92% | 96% | 88% |
| % under line | 64% | 62% | 67% | 40% | 31% | 50% | 8% | 4% | 12% |
Novi Pazar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
OFK Beograd| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +9.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.4% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +0.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.9% | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.26 | - | - | - | +0.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 15/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/05/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 09/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/08/24 | H | 0-0 |
Novi Pazar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 09/04/26 | H | 2-3 |
OFK Beograd| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 09/04/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Cukaricki | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 9.6 | 60% | 5.6 | 100% | 28.0 | 80% | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 46% |
| 2 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.0 | 40% | 31.0 | 80% | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 48% |
| 3 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 8.3 | 0% | 3.7 | 67% | 20.3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 67% |
| 4 |  Vojvodina | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 9.2 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 26.6 | 80% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 5 |  Mladost Lucani | 5 | 7 | 20% | 1.4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 28.2 | 100% | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 41% |
| 6 | Novi Pazar | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 4.6 | 80% | 24.8 | 100% | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 7 |  Radnicki 1923 | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | 25.2 | 100% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 8 |  Železničar Pančevo | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.7 | 33% | 5.7 | 100% | 28.7 | 100% | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 9 |  Radnik Surdulica | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 3.8 | 25% | 32.8 | 100% | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | 7.6 | 20% | 5.8 | 80% | 30.2 | 100% | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 51% |
| 11 |  FK Partizan | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 9.5 | 50% | 6.8 | 100% | 28.5 | 100% | 60 | 26 | 19 | 15 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 59% |
| 12 |  Radnicki NIS | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 27.0 | 75% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 13 |  Macva | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.4 | 0% | 5.6 | 40% | 30.4 | 80% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 |  Zemun | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 9.6 | 60% | 6.2 | 80% | 25.8 | 80% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | 2.2 | - |