Nyva Ternopil are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 63% chance to a home win, 25% to a draw and 12% to a Kolos Kovalivka II victory. The prediction favours a 1-0 result, the most likely scoreline, which carries a 15.5% probability. The average goal count is 2.3, with the most common total being two goals at 27%. Nyva’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run (DWLDD) and a 1-1 stalemate against Metal Kharkiv, suggesting they are comfortable at home. Kolos, playing away against a stronger opponent, has struggled, scoring only 0.33 goals per game while conceding two on average, and has just suffered four straight defeats before a 0-1 loss to SK Poltava. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.5%), Home +2 handicap (96.8%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Under 4.5 (91.1%) and Home under 3.5 goals (90.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nyva Ternopil win
63.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II win
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nyva Ternopil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.77
1.15
0.82
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.18
1.00
1.22
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolos Kovalivka II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.0%
No
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.5%
2-0
14.3%
1-1
11.3%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.9%
Nyva Ternopil goals ↓
Kolos Kovalivka II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
4.9%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
15%
11%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
8.8%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
8.2%
5.1%
1.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nyva Ternopil goals (down), columns = Kolos Kovalivka II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Nyva Ternopil is 0.60 points better than Kolos Kovalivka II in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Nyva Ternopil is 0.40 goals better than Kolos Kovalivka II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Nyva Ternopil is 0.60 goals better than Kolos Kovalivka II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nyva Ternopil or Draw
88.1%
Avg Implied -
63%
25%
12%
covers Nyva Ternopil + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil or Kolos Kovalivka II
75.1%
Avg Implied -
63%
25%
12%
covers Nyva Ternopil + Kolos Kovalivka II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka II
36.8%
Avg Implied -
63%
25%
12%
covers Draw + Kolos Kovalivka II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nyva Ternopil, so a minus line means Nyva Ternopil give that many goals of a start and Kolos Kovalivka II receive them. At -1, Nyva Ternopil must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nyva Ternopil win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nyva Ternopil)
Nyva Ternopil -2
17.0%
Draw -2
20.1%
Kolos Kovalivka II +2
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nyva Ternopil)
Nyva Ternopil -1
37.1%
Draw -1
26.1%
Kolos Kovalivka II +1
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nyva Ternopil)
Nyva Ternopil +1
88.1%
Draw +1
8.7%
Kolos Kovalivka II -1
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nyva Ternopil)
Nyva Ternopil +2
96.8%
Draw +2
2.6%
Kolos Kovalivka II -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nyva Ternopil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.54
0.31
0.18
0.35
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.32
0.78
0.22
0.23
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolos Kovalivka II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nyva Ternopil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.23
0.85
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.86
0.22
1.00
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolos Kovalivka II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil's squad is €2m more valuable than Kolos Kovalivka II's (€3m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil and Kolos Kovalivka II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil and Kolos Kovalivka II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil's defence is €1m more valuable than Kolos Kovalivka II's (€1m vs €0m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka