The model favours a home win for Nyva Ternopil, with a 52% chance, compared to 29% for a draw and 19% for a win by Yarud Mariupol. The expected total goals sit at 2.3, and the most likely total is two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Nyva, with a 13.6% chance. At home, Nyva averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similar opposition, while Yarud, on the road, manages only 0.55 goals scored and concedes 1.27. The model’s selection for the match is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.6% probability. These figures paint a picture of a tight contest where Nyva’s offensive edge and home form give them the edge, but the low scoring nature of both sides keeps the total goals low.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 52% chance, failed to deliver, leaving the model wrong. Nyva Ternopil lost 2-3 to Yarud Mariupol’, who were on a two-game winning run and had scored 3-1 against Lokomotiv Kyiv. The match finished 2-3, an away win that was not predicted. The model’s sole other selection, Under 3.5, with a 79.6% probability, missed as the total goals reached 5. The home side’s recent form note - coming off a draw - and the away side’s note - on a 2-game winning run - were both contradicted by the final result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nyva Ternopil win✗ Miss
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' win✓ Hit
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nyva Ternopil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.17
1.86
1.07
1.00
1.25
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.12
2.08
1.08
1.15
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.27
0.93
1.20
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
1.32
1.09
1.36
0.55
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.6%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.1%
0-0
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.8%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.9%
Nyva Ternopil goals ↓
Yarud Mariupol' goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.8%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.1%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nyva Ternopil goals (down), columns = Yarud Mariupol' goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Chernihiv
3.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2.43
SK Poltava
1.88
Kudrivka
1.71
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.67
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.50
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.50
Metal Kharkiv
1.41
Nyva Ternopil
1.40
UCSA
1.38
Bukovyna
1.36
Prykarpattia
1.33
Minai
1.17
Yarud Mariupol'
1.17
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.15
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.71
Kremin'
0.61
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Khust City
0.00
Nyva Ternopil is 0.23 points better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Chernihiv
2.50
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.91
UCSA
1.62
SK Poltava
1.46
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.42
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.33
Prykarpattia
1.33
Khust City
1.33
Metal Kharkiv
1.32
Kudrivka
1.25
Nyva Ternopil
1.24
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04
Minai
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.92
Bukovyna
0.91
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.86
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.79
Kremin'
0.65
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.00
Nyva Ternopil is 0.20 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Chernihiv
0.00
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.71
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.74
Kudrivka
0.79
SK Poltava
0.88
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.88
Bukovyna
0.91
Metal Kharkiv
0.95
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.08
Nyva Ternopil
1.16
Prykarpattia
1.17
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.18
Minai
1.30
UCSA
1.46
Yarud Mariupol'
1.46
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.54
Kremin'
1.78
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.92
Khust City
3.00
Nyva Ternopil is 0.30 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nyva Ternopil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.71
0.29
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.40
0.83
0.25
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.69
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.78
0.20
0.60
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.52
0.64
0.73
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nyva Ternopil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.14
0.79
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.72
1.25
0.83
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.38
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.20
0.40
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.62
0.45
0.64
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (26)
€28m
BUK (25)
€9m
ED (23)
€6m
KUD (24)
€5m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
KKI (3)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€10m
BUK (10)
€4m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (6)
€7m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M1K (10)
€11m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
KKI (1)
€0m
Nyva Ternopil and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →