The encounter between ODD Ballklubb and Sogndal is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory stands at 32%, a draw at 27%, and the away side leads with 41%. The average goal tally is 2.9, and the most probable total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability, although the final result last time was 1-4 in favour of Sogndal. ODD Ballklubb, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Sogndal, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.7% chance. Both teams are coming off mixed recent runs, ODD Ballklubb having won their last match 5-3 against Ranheim, while Sogndal lost 2-3 to Stromsgodset. The match promises a balanced contest with a slight edge to the visitors.
Results analysis
The win extends ODD Ballklubb’s recent form, but Sogndal’s away run had just suffered a defeat. The model’s favourite, an Away win, was correct as Sogndal triumphed 1-4. The prediction of a 2-goal total fell short of the 5-goal reality, yet the model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 79.7% probability. The pre-match odds placed the away side at 41% to win, and the model’s pick matched that probability. All suggested picks were settled: Over 1.5 was a hit, confirming the model’s overall accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ODD Ballklubb win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sogndal win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ODD Ballklubb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.60
1.29
1.57
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.36
1.36
1.33
1.00
1.38
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sogndal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.47
1.57
1.50
1.75
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.44
1.62
1.23
1.83
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
-
-
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ODD Ballklubb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
6.7%
0-2
6.6%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
ODD Ballklubb goals ↓
Sogndal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.4%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.3%
13%
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.8%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.3%
3.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ODD Ballklubb goals (down), columns = Sogndal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lillestrom
2.67
Brattvåg
2.25
Start
1.83
Kongsvinger
1.77
Egersund
1.75
Aalesund
1.69
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Sogndal
1.43
hodd
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
Asane
1.03
Stabaek
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Mjondalen
0.83
Skeid
0.50
Grorud
0.00
ODD Ballklubb is 0.33 points worse than Sogndal in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lillestrom
2.90
Kongsvinger
2.10
Start
1.93
Aalesund
1.91
Brattvåg
1.75
Egersund
1.72
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
Mjondalen
1.20
Skeid
1.17
hodd
1.13
Grorud
0.50
ODD Ballklubb is 0.40 goals worse than Sogndal in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lillestrom
0.60
Brattvåg
1.00
Start
1.17
Lyn
1.23
Aalesund
1.25
Egersund
1.28
Kongsvinger
1.48
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Asane
1.77
Stabaek
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Grorud
2.00
Moss
2.12
Skeid
2.20
Mjondalen
2.37
ODD Ballklubb is 0.07 goals worse than Sogndal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ODD Ballklubb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.21
1.00
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.68
0.25
0.75
0.56
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sogndal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.60
0.69
0.38
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ODD Ballklubb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ODD Ballklubb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ODD Ballklubb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ODD Ballklubb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ODD Ballklubb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.80
1.07
0.57
0.81
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.68
1.08
0.25
0.81
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sogndal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.86
1.07
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.84
0.92
0.85
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ODD Ballklubb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ODD Ballklubb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ODD Ballklubb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ODD Ballklubb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ODD Ballklubb · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Faniel Temesgen Tewelde21%
Mikael Ingebrigtsen19%
Torgeir Børven15%
Bork Bang-Kittilsen13%
Bilal Njie8%
Sheriff Sinyan8%
Tobias Hammer Svendsen7%
Steffen Hagen6%
Tony Miettinen6%
Samuel Skree Skjeldal5%
Syver Aas5%
Ole Erik Midtskogen4%
Filip Rønningen Jørgensen3%
André Hansen0%
Etzaz Hussain0%
Espen Ruud0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Sondre Solholm Johansen0%
Josef Baccay0%
Alexander Fransson0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Mihajlo Ivančević0%
Leon Hien0%
Ishaq Abdulrazak0%
Jesper Svenungsen Skau0%
Peder Nygaard Klausen0%
Casper Andersen0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Espen Ruud29%
Leon Hien29%
Tony Miettinen28%
Etzaz Hussain25%
Mihajlo Ivančević23%
Sondre Solholm Johansen20%
Solomon Owusu16%
Josef Baccay14%
Jesper Svenungsen Skau14%
Filip Rønningen Jørgensen14%
Mikael Ingebrigtsen11%
Alexander Fransson11%
Syver Aas10%
Kjetil Haug9%
Tobias Hammer Svendsen7%
Ole Erik Midtskogen7%
Bork Bang-Kittilsen4%
Bilal Njie4%
André Hansen0%
Steffen Hagen0%
Torgeir Børven0%
Sheriff Sinyan0%
Ishaq Abdulrazak0%
Samuel Skree Skjeldal0%
Peder Nygaard Klausen0%
Faniel Temesgen Tewelde0%
Casper Andersen0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Samuel Skree Skjeldal15%
Espen Ruud14%
Mikael Ingebrigtsen11%
Filip Rønningen Jørgensen10%
Sondre Solholm Johansen10%
Bilal Njie8%
Ole Erik Midtskogen4%
Etzaz Hussain4%
André Hansen0%
Steffen Hagen0%
Torgeir Børven0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Josef Baccay0%
Sheriff Sinyan0%
Alexander Fransson0%
Tony Miettinen0%
Tobias Hammer Svendsen0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Mihajlo Ivančević0%
Leon Hien0%
Syver Aas0%
Ishaq Abdulrazak0%
Jesper Svenungsen Skau0%
Peder Nygaard Klausen0%
Faniel Temesgen Tewelde0%
Bork Bang-Kittilsen0%
Casper Andersen0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Faniel Temesgen Tewelde29%
Oliver Jordan Hagen14%
Mikael Ingebrigtsen11%
Ole Erik Midtskogen11%
Torgeir Børven8%
Tony Miettinen6%
Syver Aas5%
André Hansen0%
Etzaz Hussain0%
Steffen Hagen0%
Espen Ruud0%
Bilal Njie0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Sondre Solholm Johansen0%
Josef Baccay0%
Sheriff Sinyan0%
Alexander Fransson0%
Tobias Hammer Svendsen0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Mihajlo Ivančević0%
Filip Rønningen Jørgensen0%
Leon Hien0%
Ishaq Abdulrazak0%
Samuel Skree Skjeldal0%
Jesper Svenungsen Skau0%
Peder Nygaard Klausen0%
Bork Bang-Kittilsen0%
Casper Andersen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
ODD Ballklubb's squad is €5m more valuable than Sogndal's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (9)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ODD Ballklubb's attack is €2m more valuable than Sogndal's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
OB (7)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
ODD Ballklubb's midfield is €2m more valuable than Sogndal's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
ODD Ballklubb's defence is €1m more valuable than Sogndal's (€3m vs €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lillestrom
Egersund
Start
Kongsvinger
Aalesund
Ranheim
Lyn
hodd
Stabaek
Asane
Moss
Raufoss
Mjondalen
Skeid
Brattvåg
Grorud