PythiaFootballBETA
The highly anticipated match between Oddevold and Norrby IF in the Sweden: Superettan league is shaping up to be a closely contested affair. Oddevold's recent form is a story worth noting, having come off a win in their last outing against Ljungskile SK, with a score of 1-0. This momentum could potentially give them the edge they need to secure a home win, which the model predicts with a 41% probability. Conversely, Norrby IF's unbeaten streak in their last 5 matches, including a draw against Oddevold, suggests they will not go down without a fight. The model's selection for the match is indeed a home win, with a predicted expected total of 2.7 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Oddevold's impressive home form, scoring 4.0 goals on average while conceding just 1.0, will be put to the test against Norrby IF's stronger away form, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model's suggested picks include Under 21.5 fouls (99.9%), Over 1.5 (77.0%), Under 3.5 cards (72.6%), and Under 3.5 (70.6% with a 6% edge). The home win percentage stands at 41%, the draw percentage at 28%, and the away win percentage at 31%.
In a stunning upset, Oddevold failed to capitalize on their recent form, extending their unbeaten run to six games, after coming off a win and having a strong home form, conceding only one goal on average. The home team's strong recent form, with a win in their last match, seemed to suggest a more decisive result, but ultimately, the final score was a 0-0 draw. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, with the model's selection being correct, as the model had a 41% probability of a home win. The model's selection of a home win was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 70.6% probability, while Over 1.5 goals missed, with a 77% probability.
Oddevold| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.40 | 1.64 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.62 | 1.67 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.62 | 0.62 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Norrby IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1.06 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.29 | 1.65 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.31 | 1.31 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Norrby IF goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 13% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
OddevoldNorrby IFOddevold| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.3 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 5.0 | 5.0 | - | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | - |
| vs Similar (37) | 10.6 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.8 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 6.6 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 24.4 | 23.8 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 46% | 50% | 40% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 52% | 50% | 56% |
| % under line | 54% | 50% | 60% | 82% | 84% | 80% | 48% | 50% | 44% |
Norrby IF| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (48) | 9.0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 25.1 | 25.8 | 24.2 |
| vs Similar (22) | 8.6 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 23.5 | 22.2 | 24.7 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 43% | 40% | 47% | 35% | 38% | 33% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| % under line | 57% | 60% | 53% | 65% | 62% | 67% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.0% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -0.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.45 | +6.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 | A | 0-2 |
Oddevold| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 22/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/06/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/06/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-2 |
Norrby IF| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 20/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 28/06/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 21/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/06/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/06/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  IFK Norrkoping | 19 | 41 | 68% | 2.2 | 36 | 11 | +25 | 2.5 | 74% | 42% | 21% | 9.4 | 44% | 3.4 | 56% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 55% |
| 2 |  Falkenbergs FF | 19 | 35 | 53% | 1.8 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 3.3 | 89% | 68% | 42% | 9.1 | 44% | 1.8 | 11% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 |  Varbergs BoIS FC | 19 | 34 | 53% | 1.8 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 3.1 | 79% | 68% | 42% | 7.8 | 36% | 3.9 | 64% | 30.8 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 4 |  Ostersunds FK | 19 | 33 | 47% | 1.7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 26% | 8.7 | 44% | 3.3 | 56% | 25.7 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Landskrona BoIS | 19 | 29 | 42% | 1.5 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 2.4 | 68% | 42% | 21% | 10.1 | 43% | 3.7 | 43% | 28.2 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 58% |
| 6 |  United Nordic | 19 | 29 | 37% | 1.5 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 2.9 | 84% | 42% | 37% | 9.1 | 57% | 2.7 | 29% | 29.8 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  Osters IF | 19 | 29 | 47% | 1.5 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 3.1 | 74% | 68% | 42% | 11.8 | 89% | 2.9 | 33% | 24.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 8 | Oddevold | 19 | 26 | 32% | 1.4 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 3.0 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 50% | 2.4 | 22% | 25.4 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 9 |  Sandviken | 19 | 25 | 37% | 1.3 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 3.2 | 74% | 68% | 42% | 9.6 | 33% | 2.4 | 11% | 23.0 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 10 |  Helsingborg | 19 | 25 | 37% | 1.3 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 3.6 | 95% | 68% | 47% | 9.8 | 75% | 5.0 | 80% | 26.0 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 11 |  Ljungskile SK | 19 | 23 | 32% | 1.2 | 27 | 27 | +0 | 2.8 | 68% | 53% | 42% | 10.2 | 56% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.6 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 12 | Norrby IF | 19 | 22 | 21% | 1.2 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 2.6 | 79% | 47% | 37% | 7.3 | 33% | 2.3 | 33% | 21.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 13 |  IK brage | 19 | 21 | 26% | 1.1 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 3.6 | 79% | 74% | 53% | 8.8 | 38% | 4.2 | 67% | 27.3 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 48% |
| 14 |  IFK Varnamo | 19 | 18 | 26% | 0.9 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 3.2 | 74% | 63% | 47% | 8.2 | 22% | 2.9 | 22% | 24.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 15 |  Orebro SK | 19 | 16 | 16% | 0.8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 2.6 | 68% | 47% | 32% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 38% | 23.3 | 67% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 16 |  GIF Sundsvall | 19 | 10 | 16% | 0.5 | 14 | 43 | -29 | 3.0 | 74% | 63% | 37% | 9.8 | 67% | 2.6 | 22% | 20.5 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 41% |