Odra Opole are the favourites to win at home against Warta Poznań, with a 54% chance of securing all three points. The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.1. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 11.2% of the time.
Warta Poznań have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 1.06 goals against stronger opponents and conceding 1.56 goals. Odra Opole, meanwhile, have had a mixed recent form, coming off a defeat in their last match.
The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick for Over 1.5 goals at 82.2% probability, indicating a high chance of at least two goals being scored. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals also has an edge of 6%.
The probabilities for each match outcome are: 54% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 21% for an away win. The model's suggested picks include: Home win (54%), Draw (24%), Away win (21%), Over 1.5 (82.2%).
Results analysis
The win extends Odra Opole's run, following their previous victory over Warta Poznań. In a game that ended 3-1 in favour of the home team, the actual result was a home win. The model correctly predicted the favoured result, as Odra Opole were the pre-match favourites with a 54% probability of winning. The model's selection, a home win, was indeed the correct call. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' hitting at an 82.2% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Odra Opole win✓ Hit
54.4%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.30
Edge
+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
Dafabet
2.36
BetVictor
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.28
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.49
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Warta Poznań win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.79
Edge
-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Betano
2.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Odra Opole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.07
1.14
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.21
1.09
1.27
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.57
0.50
1.44
1.07
1.71
vs Stronger (29)
0.76
1.62
0.47
1.53
1.07
1.71
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
@ 1.26+9.0%
Under 1.5
17.8%
@ 3.45-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.62
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.86+9.3%
Under 2.5
40.6%
@ 1.87-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Under
SBO
1.96
10Bet
1.93
Unibet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.0%
@ 3.16+7.7%
Under 3.5
63.0%
@ 1.31-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.44
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
@ 1.66+3.9%
No
40.5%
@ 2.07-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 5.82+3.7%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.42+4.6%
2-0
8.5%@ 11.06+4.6%
1-0
7.8%@ 7.79+2.2%
3-1 ✓
6.3%@ 16.72+3.7%
1-2
5.9%@ 9.22+1.1%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.78+1.9%
0-0
5.6%@ 9.83+1.1%
Odra Opole goals ↓
Warta Poznań goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.3%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
7.8%
11%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.5%
6.3%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.6%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Odra Opole goals (down), columns = Warta Poznań goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Odra Opole is 0.17 points worse than Warta Poznań in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Odra Opole is 0.83 goals worse than Warta Poznań in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Odra Opole is 0.67 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Odra Opole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.43
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.46
0.55
0.36
0.38
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.93
0.12
0.88
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (29)
0.28
0.97
0.13
0.93
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Odra Opole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.75
0.55
0.91
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.38
0.56
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (29)
0.48
0.66
0.33
0.60
0.64
0.71
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.2%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+9.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Warta Poznań · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kajetan Szmyt21%
Adam Zreľák14%
Maciej Żurawski14%
Mateusz Kupczak12%
Márton Eppel10%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Stefan Savić7%
Miguel Luís6%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Dario Vizinger3%
Konrad Matuszewski3%
Dawid Szymonowicz3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz31%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos28%
Dario Vizinger28%
Mateusz Kupczak19%
Maciej Żurawski17%
Mohamed Mezghrani17%
Jakub Bartkowski17%
Michał Kopczyński14%
Dawid Szymonowicz13%
Filip Borowski12%
Kajetan Szmyt12%
Jedrzej Grobelny12%
Stefan Savić10%
Konrad Matuszewski10%
Adrian Lis10%
Miguel Luís9%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Bogdan Țîru8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Jakub Kiełb5%
Márton Eppel5%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Vizinger10%
Jakub Kiełb10%
Mohamed Mezghrani8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Konrad Matuszewski7%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Tomas Prikryl5%
Niilo Mäenpää4%
Filip Borowski4%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Stefan Savić3%
Miguel Luís3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Mateusz Kupczak0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Márton Eppel0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Márton Eppel14%
Mateusz Kupczak9%
Adam Zreľák7%
Dario Vizinger7%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz6%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Miguel Luís0%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Tomas Prikryl0%
Stefan Savić0%
Konrad Matuszewski0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Odra Opole's squad is €3m more valuable than Warta Poznań's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Odra Opole's attack is €2m more valuable than Warta Poznań's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Odra Opole and Warta Poznań have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Odra Opole and Warta Poznań have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów