OFI vs PAOK Result & Analysis

The model sees PAOK as the clear favourite, with a 57% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 16% for an OFI win. The expected total is 2.3 goals, most likely a 2-goal match. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for PAOK, with a 15.1% probability. OFI, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has not scored in the last five matches and concedes an average of two goals per game. PAOK, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. The model’s selections include a 98.6% chance of over 19.5 fouls, 96.3% over 21.5 fouls, 91.7% over 23.5 fouls, 84.1% over 25.5 fouls, 83.9% over 2.5 cards, 80.8% under 3.5 goals (hit) and 78.9% under 11.5 corners. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with PAOK likely to edge out a narrow win.

The pre-match favourite, PAOK, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given PAOK a 57% chance of victory, but the outcome was a stalemate. The under 3.5 goals selection, with an 80.8% probability, hit, confirming the low-scoring nature of the encounter. OFI’s recent form shows a streak of LWWWW, coming off a defeat, while PAOK’s last five were WLWDL, after a win. The predicted most likely score of 0-1 (28%) did not materialise; the actual 1-1 result fell outside the model’s top probability. The model’s overall prediction was therefore incorrect.