OFK Bor 1919 vs Naftagas Result & Analysis

The model projects a tightly contested draw, with the home side’s 32 % chance of victory, a 34 % draw probability and a 34 % chance of an away win. The expected total goals sit at two, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.1 % chance. OFK Bor 1919, coming off a 0-0 draw against Loznica, has shown defensive solidity, conceding few goals at home, while Naftagas, after three straight defeats, has struggled to score away from home. The model’s selection set emphasizes low scoring: Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Under 5.5 (98.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 %). These picks reflect the defensive nature of the matchup and the low probability of high-scoring outcomes.

The upset came early as OFK Bor 1919 turned the pre-match favourite, Naftagas, on its head, winning 2-1 and extending a win in their last five. The model had tipped an away win with a 35% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score confirmed a home victory, a result the model had not predicted. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Under 5.5 hit at 98.4%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7%, and Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.4%. The game delivered a low-scoring finish, with the most likely total of two goals and a 28% chance of that exact tally.