OFK Vršac's recent form is a story worth telling, as they've been on a 2-game winning run, most recently beating Javor 2-1. However, their defensive solidity at home is a concern, with an average of 0.64 goals conceded per game. Dubočtica, on the other hand, have struggled to keep clean sheets away from home, conceding an average of 2 goals per game.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 28% chance of exactly 2 goals being scored. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.7%. The expected total number of goals is 2.2.
The model's selection for the match result is a home win, with a 49% chance of success. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 49%, 30%, and 21%, respectively. The home side's home scoring and conceding versus a similar opponent's strength tier is 1.09 and 0.64 goals per game. The away side's away scoring and conceding versus a similar opponent's strength tier is 1.14 and 2 goals per game. The model suggests 'Under 3.5' as its selection, with an 81.2% probability.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as OFK Vršac secured a 2-1 home win, extending their four-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was selected with a 49 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick also hit: Away under 3.5 goals (99 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Home +2 handicap (92.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.2 %), Under 3.5 (81.2 %), Away under 1.5 goals (79.6 %), and Home or Draw (78.9 %). The match’s total of three goals matched the model’s expectation of a 2-goal game, confirming the overall accuracy of the Pythia forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
OFK Vršac win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied 54.2% · @ 1.67
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.68
Dafabet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
BetVictor
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.30
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
Dubočica win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied 18.5% · @ 4.87
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.84
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
OFK Vršac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.21
0.57
0.88
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.07
1.31
0.62
0.86
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
1.07
0.87
1.00
2.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.50
1.07
0.86
1.08
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.39+0.9%
Under 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.68-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.8%
@ 2.26-2.0%
Under 2.5
61.2%
@ 1.55+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Superbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
@ 4.24-2.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
@ 1.17+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.0%
@ 2.13+0.8%
No
56.0%
@ 1.62-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
No
Betfair
1.65
BetVictor
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.33+7.1%
1-0
13.7%@ 5.02+5.3%
0-0
11.9%@ 7.23+6.1%
2-0
10.5%@ 6.55+4.1%
2-1 ✓
8.8%@ 8.15+3.6%
0-1
7.6%@ 9.87+3.4%
1-2
5.2%@ 15.33+2.5%
3-0
4.9%@ 11.67+1.3%
OFK Vršac goals ↓
Dubočica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.6%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
8.8%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.9%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = OFK Vršac goals (down), columns = Dubočica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
Semendrija 1924
2.20
TSC Backa Topola
2.20
OFK Vršac
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Dubočica
1.40
Loznica
1.17
Teleoptik
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Grafičar
0.80
FK Vozdovac
0.80
Naftagas
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
OFK Vršac is 0.60 points better than Dubočica in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.80
OFK Vršac
1.50
Teleoptik
1.40
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Dubočica
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.60
OFK Vršac is 0.50 goals better than Dubočica in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Borac Cacak
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
TSC Backa Topola
1.20
Dubočica
1.20
Grafičar
1.40
Naftagas
1.50
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Teleoptik
2.20
OFK Vršac is 0.20 goals better than Dubočica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
OFK Vršac or Draw✓ Hit
78.9%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-2.5%
49%
30%
21%
covers OFK Vršac + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
OFK Vršac or Dubočica✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.25
Edge
-2.7%
49%
30%
21%
covers OFK Vršac + Dubočica
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Dubočica✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.00
Edge
+5.2%
49%
30%
21%
covers Draw + Dubočica
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.97
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.4%
@ 1.21-0.9%
Under
24.6%
@ 3.91+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 2.02-4.7%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.70+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.25-4.9%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.18+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.16
OFK Vršac over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 10.50-3.4%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Under
1xBet
1.01
Dubočica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.6%
@ 1.74+3.7%
Under
43.4%
@ 1.95-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Dubočica over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.4%
@ 4.60+0.4%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.15-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Dubočica over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 12.00-2.5%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Dubočica over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to OFK Vršac, so a minus line means OFK Vršac give that many goals of a start and Dubočica receive them. At -1, OFK Vršac must win by two or more to land; a one-goal OFK Vršac win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (OFK Vršac)Actual: Dubočica
OFK Vršac -2
9.5%
@ 6.20-4.7%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 4.80-3.0%
Dubočica +2
75.3%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.20
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap -1 (OFK Vršac)Actual: Draw
OFK Vršac -1
24.7%
@ 3.06-4.1%
Draw -1
24.4%
@ 3.18-3.3%
Dubočica +1
50.9%
@ 2.02+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.97
Draw
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Away
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Handicap +1 (OFK Vršac)Actual: OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac +1
78.9%
Draw +1
14.0%
Dubočica -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (OFK Vršac)Actual: OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.4%
Dubočica -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
OFK Vršac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.43
0.36
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.67
0.46
0.38
0.50
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.80
0.20
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.38
0.86
0.21
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
OFK Vršac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.79
0.21
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.41
0.85
0.23
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.10
0.27
0.67
0.47
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
1.12
0.21
0.64
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.2%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.6%
1.15
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.9%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.3%
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
1.25
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
OFK Vršac's squad is €2m more valuable than Dubočica's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Dubočica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Dubočica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Dubočica have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →