OFK Vr\u0161ac’s defensive record at home is tight, conceding almost nothing against stronger opponents, while Grafi\u010dar’s away form shows a modest scoring rate of 0.5 goals per game and 0.83 conceded against weaker sides. The model projects a low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.7 goals and a 28 % chance that the final tally will be exactly one goal. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 19.3 % probability. The model favours a home win, with a 36 % probability, a draw also at 36 %, and an away win at 28 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (100 %), Under 6.5 (99.8 %), Under 5.5 (99.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Under 4.5 (96.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.4 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (93.3 %). The model’s selection list reflects a strong expectation that the match will stay tight, with the home side slightly ahead.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
OFK Vršac win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grafičar win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
OFK Vršac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.27
0.67
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.04
1.36
0.71
0.85
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
1.06
1.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.4%
Under 1.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.3%
Under 2.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.1%
Under 3.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.8%
No
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.6%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.3%
0-1
12.6%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
OFK Vršac goals ↓
Grafičar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
13%
6.0%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.7%
1.6%
0.3%
2
7.5%
6.4%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.4%
2.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = OFK Vršac goals (down), columns = Grafičar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
OFK Vršac is 1.33 points better than Grafičar in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
OFK Vršac is 0.50 goals better than Grafičar in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
OFK Vršac is 0.83 goals better than Grafičar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
OFK Vršac or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
35%
29%
covers OFK Vršac + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac or Grafičar
64.7%
Avg Implied -
35%
35%
29%
covers OFK Vršac + Grafičar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grafičar
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
35%
29%
covers Draw + Grafičar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to OFK Vršac, so a minus line means OFK Vršac give that many goals of a start and Grafičar receive them. At -1, OFK Vršac must win by two or more to land; a one-goal OFK Vršac win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (OFK Vršac)
OFK Vršac -2
3.8%
Draw -2
9.8%
Grafičar +2
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (OFK Vršac)
OFK Vršac -1
13.5%
Draw -1
21.6%
Grafičar +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (OFK Vršac)
OFK Vršac +1
70.5%
Draw +1
19.1%
Grafičar -1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (OFK Vršac)
OFK Vršac +2
89.7%
Draw +2
7.8%
Grafičar -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
OFK Vršac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.67
0.50
0.43
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.56
0.38
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.44
0.62
0.62
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.8%
Under 0.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
26.0%
Under 1.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.7%
Under 2.5
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
OFK Vršac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.80
0.27
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.37
0.86
0.29
0.38
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.94
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.88
0.75
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
Under 0.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.4%
Under 1.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
OFK Vršac and Grafičar have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Grafičar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Grafičar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Grafičar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub