Defensive solidity will shape this tight affair, with OFK Vršac averaging just 0.71 goals conceded at home and Jedinstvo Ub conceding 1.19 away. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, followed by a 36% draw and a 25% away win. The expected total is 1.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 18.6% probability. OFK Vršac’s home form shows 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against similar opposition, while Jedinstvo Ub’s away form records 0.94 scored and 1.19 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with 89.9% confidence and Under 2.5 at 74.3%. The match opens with Vršac fresh from a defeat, and Jedinstvo Ub coming off a draw, both facing teams of comparable strength. The model’s selection points to a low-scoring, defensive showdown with the home side as the clear favourite.
Results analysis
The recent run for OFK Vršac, a win after a defeat, set the tone as they hosted Jedinstvo Ub, who were coming off a draw. The model predicted a home win with a 39% probability, and that call was right as the final score was 2-0, confirming the favoured result. The predicted most likely total of two goals materialised, and the model’s selections were strong: Under 3.5 goals hit with an 89.9% chance, and Under 2.5 goals also hit at 74.3%. All suggested picks settled, and the outcome matched the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
OFK Vršac win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
OFK Vršac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.07
0.67
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.93
1.00
1.14
0.71
0.71
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo Ub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.50
1.86
1.86
0.94
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.31
1.55
1.77
2.00
0.94
1.19
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.6%
Under 1.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.7%
Under 2.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.1%
Under 3.5
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
34.8%
No
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.6%
1-0
16.0%
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.8%
2-0 ✓
8.6%
2-1
6.5%
0-2
4.9%
1-2
4.9%
OFK Vršac goals ↓
Jedinstvo Ub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
12%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
2
8.6%
6.5%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
3
2.9%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = OFK Vršac goals (down), columns = Jedinstvo Ub goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zemun
2.00
Macva
1.89
FK Vozdovac
1.86
Loznica
1.74
Dinamo Jug
1.59
Semendrija 1924
1.51
Borac Cacak
1.38
Grafičar
1.33
OFK Vršac
1.31
Jedinstvo Ub
1.26
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.26
Kabel Novi Sad
1.10
FAP
1.03
Dubočica
0.95
FK Trayal
0.90
Stepojevac Vaga
0.74
OFK Vršac is 0.06 points better than Jedinstvo Ub in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Vozdovac
1.71
Zemun
1.57
Semendrija 1924
1.36
Macva
1.34
Jedinstvo Ub
1.31
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.21
Dinamo Jug
1.13
Borac Cacak
1.10
Loznica
1.06
FAP
1.05
Grafičar
1.05
FK Trayal
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.00
Dubočica
1.00
Kabel Novi Sad
0.97
Stepojevac Vaga
0.79
OFK Vršac is 0.31 goals worse than Jedinstvo Ub in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Loznica
0.74
Macva
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Dinamo Jug
0.85
Zemun
0.94
Grafičar
0.97
Semendrija 1924
1.00
Borac Cacak
1.03
OFK Vršac
1.03
Tekstilac Odžaci
1.33
Kabel Novi Sad
1.44
FK Trayal
1.44
Jedinstvo Ub
1.49
FAP
1.49
Stepojevac Vaga
1.54
Dubočica
1.54
OFK Vršac is 0.46 goals better than Jedinstvo Ub in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.49).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
OFK Vršac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.68
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo Ub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.64
0.79
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.79
0.62
0.85
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
OFK Vršac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.32
0.64
0.21
0.21
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo Ub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.21
1.07
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.90
0.76
1.15
1.15
0.69
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (OFK Vršac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
OFK Vršac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFK Vršac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jedinstvo Ub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ethan Hoard24%
Darko Jevtić20%
Aleksa Paić18%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell14%
Issah Abass13%
Dimitrije Aćimović9%
Simón Moreno8%
Branislav Runjajić8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Strahinja Rakić7%
Tomás Pérez6%
Marko Mitrović5%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Viktor Damjanić3%
Uroš Matić0%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Nemanja Doderović0%
Igor Milanović0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Uroš Savković0%
Amir Saidov0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edrissa Ceesay33%
Pablo Ferreira29%
Mišo Dubljanić25%
Strahinja Rakić25%
Aleksa Paić24%
Veljko Kijevčanin23%
Viktor Damjanić23%
Issah Abass20%
Luka Radivojević20%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević20%
Ivan Rogač18%
Ethan Hoard18%
Dimitrije Aćimović17%
Julian Kristoffersen17%
Luka Mladenović17%
Aleksandar Popović12%
Uroš Savković12%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell9%
Uroš Matić8%
Simón Moreno8%
Nemanja Doderović8%
Levan Jordania8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Igor Milanović8%
Uroš Stevančević5%
Marko Mitrović5%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Branislav Runjajić0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Veljko Kijevčanin15%
Marko Mitrović14%
Issah Abass13%
Ethan Hoard12%
Uroš Matić8%
Branislav Runjajić8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Igor Milanović8%
Danilo Miladinović7%
Uroš Savković6%
Nemanja Doderović4%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Simón Moreno0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Viktor Damjanić0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Aleksa Paić0%
Strahinja Rakić0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell0%
Dimitrije Aćimović0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Hoard29%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell14%
Issah Abass13%
Veljko Kijevčanin8%
Igor Milanović8%
Nemanja Doderović4%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Uroš Matić0%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Stefan Golubović0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Simón Moreno0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Viktor Damjanić0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Uroš Savković0%
Marko Mitrović0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Aleksa Paić0%
Strahinja Rakić0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Dimitrije Aćimović0%
Branislav Runjajić0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
DUB (17)
€1m
OFK Vršac and Jedinstvo Ub have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
OFK Vršac and Jedinstvo Ub have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEM (5)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
OFK Vršac and Jedinstvo Ub have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
ZEM (8)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OFK Vršac and Jedinstvo Ub have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zemun
Macva
FK Vozdovac
Dinamo Jug
Loznica
Semendrija 1924
Borac Cacak
Grafičar
Tekstilac Odžaci
Kabel Novi Sad
FAP
Dubočica
FK Trayal
Stepojevac Vaga