PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ogre United vs Mārupe Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 3-0
Ogre United
Ogre United
Vs
56%
23%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ogre United win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L13L11D12L02L32W03L11D20WH·RIG03/08A·SKA10/08A·JDF17/08A·LEE23/08H·RĪG31/08A·TUK14/09H·JFK21/09A·VAL29/09H·PRO05/10A·SMI19/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.261.701.451.361.082.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.461.922.001.331.002.43
vs Weaker (10)1.001.400.801.401.201.40
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L13L21W10W32W21W15L00D11DH·SKA03/08A·JDF09/08A·RĪG24/08H·TUK31/08H·LEE07/09A·JFK15/09H·VAL22/09A·PRO29/09H·SMI06/10H·RĒZ19/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.041.611.080.751.002.55
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.121.881.250.881.002.88
vs Weaker (7)0.861.000.750.501.001.67
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
Ogre United goals ↓
Mārupe goals →
01234
04.8%3.6%2.7%1.1%0.3%
16.9%10%5.7%2.3%0.7%
28.2%9.8%5.9%2.3%0.7%
35.6%6.7%4.0%1.6%0.5%
42.9%3.5%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ogre United goals (down), columns = Mārupe goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Ogre United is 0.15 points worse than Mārupe in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Ogre United is 0.46 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 0.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Ogre United and Mārupe are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D12L10W01L00D10W02L11D10WH·RIG03/08A·SKA10/08A·JDF17/08A·LEE23/08H·RĪG31/08A·TUK14/09H·JFK21/09A·VAL29/09H·PRO05/10A·SMI19/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.780.650.910.730.670.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.691.170.670.290.71
vs Weaker (10)0.900.600.600.801.200.40
Clean sheet %52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L20W10W20W10W03L00D01LH·SKA03/08A·JDF09/08A·RĪG24/08H·TUK31/08H·LEE07/09A·JFK15/09H·VAL22/09A·PRO29/09H·SMI06/10H·RĒZ19/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.390.650.420.170.361.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.310.750.250.250.381.25
vs Weaker (7)0.570.430.750.000.331.00
Clean sheet %61% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L01L11D02L22D01L00D10WH·RIG03/08A·SKA10/08A·JDF17/08A·LEE23/08H·RĪG31/08A·TUK14/09H·JFK21/09A·VAL29/09H·PRO05/10A·SMI19/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.481.040.550.640.421.42
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.771.230.830.670.711.71
vs Weaker (10)0.100.800.200.600.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D12L01L00D12L11D12L00D10WH·SKA03/08A·JDF09/08A·RĪG24/08H·TUK31/08H·LEE07/09A·JFK15/09H·VAL22/09A·PRO29/09H·SMI06/10H·RĒZ19/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.960.670.580.641.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.811.121.000.620.621.62
vs Weaker (7)0.290.570.000.500.670.67
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
OU wins
0
Draws
1
MĀR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ogre United vs Mārupe · H/A from OU
DateH/AGameScore
06/07/24AMārupe Vs OU3-2

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ASmiltene Vs OU0-2
05/10/24HOU Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-1
29/09/24AValmiera II Vs OU3-0
21/09/24HOU Vs JFK Ventspils3-2
14/09/24ATukums II Vs OU2-0
31/08/24HOU Vs Rīgas FS II1-2
23/08/24ALeevon / PPK Vs OU1-1
17/08/24AJDFS Alberts Vs OU3-1
10/08/24ASkanste Vs OU1-0
03/08/24HOU Vs Riga FC II2-2

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24HMĀR Vs Rēzekne FA1-1
06/10/24HMĀR Vs Smiltene0-0
29/09/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs MĀR5-1
22/09/24HMĀR Vs Valmiera II2-1
15/09/24AJFK Ventspils Vs MĀR2-3
07/09/24HMĀR Vs Leevon / PPK1-0
31/08/24HMĀR Vs Tukums II2-1
24/08/24ARīgas FS II Vs MĀR3-1
09/08/24AJDFS Alberts Vs MĀR1-0
03/08/24HMĀR Vs Skanste0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.00
HomeDDLWD1.27
AwayLDLLW0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%27%17%
AVG goals2.962.823.08
Over 1.5 %83%82%83%
Over 2.5 %52%55%50%
Over 3.5 %39%36%42%
Scored1.261.451.08
Conceded1.701.362.00
BTTS52%64%42%
Clean Sheet17%18%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD1.43
HomeWWWDD1.83
AwayLLLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%50%27%
AVG goals2.651.833.55
Over 1.5 %61%50%73%
Over 2.5 %48%42%55%
Over 3.5 %30%8%55%
Scored1.041.081.00
Conceded1.610.752.55
BTTS52%50%55%
Clean Sheet30%42%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

← all matches