PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ogre United vs Riga FC II Result & Analysis

Date: 28/06/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 1-0
Ogre United
Ogre United
Vs
60%
20%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ogre United win✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-810W81W11D30W41W30W32W13L13L22DA·LEE28/03H·PRO05/04A·JFK13/04A·RĒZ18/04H·TUK26/04A·AUG03/05A·RIG10/05A·SMI18/05A·RĪG24/05A·JDF15/06
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.573.091.271.471.74
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.001.693.141.141.112.11
vs Weaker (14)2.141.433.001.501.801.40
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D15L22D04L23L01L02L12L11D22DH·RIG29/03A·SMI06/04H·RĪG14/04A·JDF18/04H·RĒZ27/04H·SKA04/05A·MĀR11/05H·LEE18/05A·PRO25/05H·JFK13/06
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.502.381.151.651.76
vs Stronger (20)1.651.302.001.001.361.55
vs Similar (8)1.252.381.332.001.202.60
vs Weaker (2)8.000.009.000.007.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.9%
Under 2.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 3.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.5%
No
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.3%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-0
5.3%
3-2
5.1%
1-2
5.1%
Ogre United goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
01234
02.9%2.2%2.1%1.0%0.3%
14.5%8.0%5.1%2.4%0.8%
26.4%9.0%6.2%2.9%1.0%
35.3%7.3%5.1%2.4%0.8%
43.2%4.5%3.1%1.5%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ogre United goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
Ogre United is 1.31 points better than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 0.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
Ogre United is 1.19 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals scored per game (2.54 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
Ogre United is 0.88 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.65).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D60W00D20W21W00D12L02L02L10WA·LEE28/03H·PRO05/04A·JFK13/04A·RĒZ18/04H·TUK26/04A·AUG03/05A·RIG10/05A·SMI18/05A·RĪG24/05A·JDF15/06
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.702.000.730.630.68
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.060.752.140.570.220.89
vs Weaker (14)1.210.641.751.001.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L10W02L12L00D01L10W11D21WH·RIG29/03A·SMI06/04H·RĪG14/04A·JDF18/04H·RĒZ27/04H·SKA04/05A·MĀR11/05H·LEE18/05A·PRO25/05H·JFK13/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.920.230.651.12
vs Stronger (20)0.700.600.780.110.641.00
vs Similar (8)0.621.250.670.670.601.60
vs Weaker (2)2.000.003.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W11D10W20W30W20W11D11D12LA·LEE28/03H·PRO05/04A·JFK13/04A·RĒZ18/04H·TUK26/04A·AUG03/05A·RIG10/05A·SMI18/05A·RĪG24/05A·JDF15/06
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.871.090.550.841.05
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.940.941.000.570.891.22
vs Weaker (14)0.930.791.250.500.800.90
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L12L02L11D01L01L02L00D01LH·RIG29/03A·SMI06/04H·RĪG14/04A·JDF18/04H·RĒZ27/04H·SKA04/05A·MĀR11/05H·LEE18/05A·PRO25/05H·JFK13/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.771.460.921.000.65
vs Stronger (20)0.950.701.220.890.730.55
vs Similar (8)0.621.120.671.330.601.00
vs Weaker (2)6.000.006.000.006.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.573.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Ogre United's squad is €3m more valuable than Riga FC II's (€3m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Ogre United's attack is €2m more valuable than Riga FC II's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Ogre United and Riga FC II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Ogre United's defence is €1m more valuable than Riga FC II's (€1m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
OU wins
2
Draws
0
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ogre United vs Riga FC II · H/A from OU
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/24HOU Vs Riga FC II2-2
07/04/24ARiga FC II Vs OU0-0

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/06/25AJDFS Alberts Vs OU2-2
24/05/25ARīgas FS II Vs OU3-1
18/05/25ASmiltene Vs OU3-1
10/05/25ARiga Mariners Vs OU2-3
03/05/25AAugšdaugava Vs OU0-3
26/04/25HOU Vs Tukums II4-1
18/04/25ARēzekne FA Vs OU0-3
13/04/25AJFK Ventspils Vs OU1-1
05/04/25HOU Vs Progress / AFA Olaine8-1
28/03/25ALeevon / PPK Vs OU0-1

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/06/25HRFI Vs JFK Ventspils2-2
25/05/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RFI1-1
18/05/25HRFI Vs Leevon / PPK1-2
11/05/25AMārupe Vs RFI2-0
04/05/25HRFI Vs Skanste0-1
27/04/25HRFI Vs Rēzekne FA2-3
18/04/25AJDFS Alberts Vs RFI4-0
14/04/25HRFI Vs Rīgas FS II2-2
06/04/25ASmiltene Vs RFI5-1
29/03/25HRFI Vs Riga Mariners1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.36
HomeDWWWW1.73
AwayWWLLD1.10
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%47%29%
AVG goals3.363.673.14
Over 1.5 %86%87%86%
Over 2.5 %64%67%62%
Over 3.5 %44%47%43%
Scored1.782.401.33
Conceded1.581.271.81
BTTS56%67%48%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.70
HomeDLLLD1.80
AwayWLLLD1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals3.623.923.32
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %68%72%64%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored2.422.881.96
Conceded1.201.041.36
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet32%32%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

← all matches