Oguzsport hosts Fălești in a Moldova: Liga 1 match, with the home side's recent form a notable storyline. Oguzsport is on a 2-game winning run, having beaten FC National Ialoveni 2-0 in their last outing. This has set the tone for an open match, with the model predicting a high-scoring encounter, expecting 3.3 goals on average.
The model's favoured match result is a home win, with a 39% probability, while the draw has a 25% chance and the away win a 36% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability.
At home, Oguzsport has averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opponents. Fălești, meanwhile, has averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability. Other model selections include the home win (39%), the draw (25%), the away win (36%), and the correct score 1-1 (10.9%).
Results analysis
The draw at Oguzsport's home ground extends their run of consecutive draws, a streak now at three matches. The final score of 0-0 was a surprise, as it was Oguzsport who were expected to come out on top, with a pre-match probability of 39% for a home win. Unfortunately for the model, its selection was incorrect. The model's call for an Oguzsport win was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of Oguzsport to win had a 39% probability of success. The model's suggested picks included Over 1.5 goals, which had an 85.5% probability of success but ultimately missed, as the final score was 0-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oguzsport win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oguzsport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.65
1.18
1.91
1.27
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.44
1.17
1.67
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.50
2.25
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.37
0.94
2.31
1.57
2.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
3.07
0.50
2.88
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.92
1.33
2.00
1.14
1.86
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
9.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.2%
1-0
5.1%
0-1
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
Oguzsport goals ↓
Făleşti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.8%
4.7%
2.6%
1.0%
1
5.1%
11%
8.1%
4.4%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.5%
6.9%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.0%
4.8%
3.9%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.3%
2.0%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oguzsport goals (down), columns = Făleşti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Oguzsport is 0.14 points better than Făleşti in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Oguzsport is 0.05 goals worse than Făleşti in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Oguzsport is 0.91 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 2.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oguzsport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.96
0.55
1.27
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.94
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.10
0.38
1.06
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.08
0.67
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oguzsport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.64
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.27
0.56
1.25
0.79
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.79
0.25
1.62
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.67
1.00
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
1.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti