The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for FC National Ialoveni and a 30% chance for Oguzsport, while a draw sits at 27%. The expected total is 2.9 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.7% probability. Oguzsport, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. FC National Ialoveni, on the road against a comparable opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 5.5 (92.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Away +2 handicap (86.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.7%), and Under 4.5 (83.5%). Oguzsport has just returned from a loss to FC Stăuceni, while FC National Ialoveni comes off a win over Victoria Bardar. The match is expected to be tight, with the visitors likely to edge it while keeping the total low.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oguzsport win
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oguzsport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.57
1.08
1.75
1.19
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
0.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.35
1.00
1.43
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.50
2.25
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC National Ialoveni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.0%
0-0
6.7%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Oguzsport goals ↓
FC National Ialoveni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
1
6.1%
13%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.7%
7.5%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oguzsport goals (down), columns = FC National Ialoveni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Oguzsport is 0.63 points worse than FC National Ialoveni in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.49).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Oguzsport is 0.86 goals worse than FC National Ialoveni in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Oguzsport is 0.14 goals better than FC National Ialoveni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Oguzsport or Draw
57.0%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
43%
covers Oguzsport + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport or FC National Ialoveni
73.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
43%
covers Oguzsport + FC National Ialoveni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC National Ialoveni
69.9%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
43%
covers Draw + FC National Ialoveni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Oguzsport, so a minus line means Oguzsport give that many goals of a start and FC National Ialoveni receive them. At -1, Oguzsport must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Oguzsport win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Oguzsport)
Oguzsport -2
4.6%
Draw -2
8.9%
FC National Ialoveni +2
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Oguzsport)
Oguzsport -1
13.5%
Draw -1
16.6%
FC National Ialoveni +1
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Oguzsport)
Oguzsport +1
57.0%
Draw +1
20.6%
FC National Ialoveni -1
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Oguzsport)
Oguzsport +2
77.6%
Draw +2
13.3%
FC National Ialoveni -2
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oguzsport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.89
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC National Ialoveni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.1%
Under 2.5
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oguzsport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.68
0.58
0.58
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.71
0.43
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC National Ialoveni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
Under 0.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.1%
Under 1.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.3%
Under 2.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti