Okzhetpes are tipped to win at home, with a 57% chance of victory, 21% for a draw and 22% for Kaspiy to win. The model projects a high-scoring affair, expecting 3.9 goals on average, and the most likely total is three goals, 20% of the time. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 2-1 for Okzhetpes, with an 8.8% chance. Okzhetpes have scored 1.71 goals per home game against similar opposition while conceding 1.64, whereas Kaspiy average 2.46 goals and 1.54 conceded on the road against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (95.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.8%), Over 1.5 (90.5%), Under 6.5 (90.3%), Home +2 handicap (89.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (81.5%) and Under 5.5 (80.6%). Okzhetpes are on a two-game winning run, having beaten Kaisar 3-2, while Kaspiy return from a win, having edged FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Okzhetpes win
57.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy win
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Okzhetpes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.73
1.71
1.64
1.50
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.60
1.73
1.71
1.64
1.50
1.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.20
2.67
1.07
2.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.50
1.35
2.54
1.15
2.46
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.2%
Under 2.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.1%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
3-2
5.2%
3-0
4.8%
Okzhetpes goals ↓
Kaspiy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
2.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1
4.3%
8.1%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.8%
7.1%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
4
2.9%
4.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Okzhetpes goals (down), columns = Kaspiy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Okzhetpes is 0.30 points better than Kaspiy in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Okzhetpes is 0.53 goals better than Kaspiy in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Okzhetpes is 0.10 goals better than Kaspiy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Okzhetpes
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaspiy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Okzhetpes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Okzhetpes or Draw
77.9%
Avg Implied -
57%
21%
22%
covers Okzhetpes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes or Kaspiy
79.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
21%
22%
covers Okzhetpes + Kaspiy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaspiy
42.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
21%
22%
covers Draw + Kaspiy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5
Over
90.9%
Under
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 3.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Okzhetpes, so a minus line means Okzhetpes give that many goals of a start and Kaspiy receive them. At -1, Okzhetpes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Okzhetpes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes -2
20.1%
Draw -2
17.0%
Kaspiy +2
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes -1
37.1%
Draw -1
20.1%
Kaspiy +1
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes +1
77.9%
Draw +1
12.1%
Kaspiy -1
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes +2
90.0%
Draw +2
6.4%
Kaspiy -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Okzhetpes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.50
1.31
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Okzhetpes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.07
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.07
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.77
1.33
0.73
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.85
1.23
0.77
1.77
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Okzhetpes's attack is €1m more valuable than Kaspiy's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu